Talking Stocks 2.0

[cornerstore]

“The World Trade Organization is expecting to see a 13-23% contraction in worldwide trade and the Organization for Economic Coordination and Development warned that the economic downturn would be lasting.”

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

“The World Trade Organization is expecting to see a 13-23% contraction in worldwide trade and the Organization for Economic Coordination and Development warned that the economic downturn would be lasting.”

You seem to be a perma-bear. Back in March you were saying the Dow should stabilize around 12k and could go to 7500 sooner rather than later. Here we are at Dow 25383 two months later. I wonder how much $$ you have lost/missed out on with your negative view of the market/economy.

Maybe we will get there and you will be proven right but right now your outlook has been spectacularly wrong.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

You seem to be a perma-bear. Back in March you were saying the Dow should stabilize around 12k and could go to 7500 sooner rather than later. Here we are at Dow 25383 two months later. I wonder how much $$ you have lost/missed out on with your negative view of the market/economy.

Maybe we will get there and you will be proven right but right now your outlook has been spectacularly wrong.

Concur. Most of his posts have edged that way, and I truly don't see how it helps anyone.

If you want to complain about the state of the market, take it to another forum. We'd rather help each other out around here.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Concur. Most of his posts have edged that way, and I truly don't see how it helps anyone.

If you want to complain about the state of the market, take it to another forum. We'd rather help each other out around here.

I posted a news release quote by the WTO”. My first post in a week on this thread, after the market is closed. As to helping out , getting conflicting views on investor forums is helping out. Ironically I did not complain, I only posted a Barrons link and a quote.

[austinp]

I like to hear opinions and read articles on both sides. Let’s keep it civil gents.


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[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

You seem to be a perma-bear. Back in March you were saying the Dow should stabilize around 12k and could go to 7500 sooner rather than later. Here we are at Dow 25383 two months later. I wonder how much $$ you have lost/missed out on with your negative view of the market/economy.

Maybe we will get there and you will be proven right but right now your outlook has been spectacularly wrong.

Not my outlook, Barrons and WTO. Yes me and a ton of people missed this 30% move by underestimating the lengths the Fed would go to to prop up the show. Today Fed Chief ” many red lines have been crossed” in the financial markets. Pretty much sums it up. Good that you are making money.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by austinp

I like to hear opinions and read articles on both sides. Let’s keep it civil gents.


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I agree, the thread is titled - talking stocks- after all.

[77T]

We’ll probably not see anything like this again...until next time. (and there’s always a next time)

Flash Crash
DotCom Bubble
Great Recession
Pandemic _____________(fill-in the blank)

I’m not sure we’re past this one yet so the balance sheet at the Fed will likely fatten up. Planning accordingly could net you gains.


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[walds11]

Originally Posted by austinp

I like to hear opinions and read articles on both sides. Let’s keep it civil gents.

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Both sides of what? I don’t want to see this thread closed down. Things went haywire on that other thread and it was shut down.

[A971]

I didn't buy enough stock.

This pain trade higher is... painful.

I enjoy this thread. Thanks to everyone for participating.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by walds11

Both sides of what? I don’t want to see this thread closed down. Things went haywire on that other thread and it was shut down.

The bulls and bears. Some are firmly in one camp or the other. I like hearing from both.


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[razzz]

Adyen is the biggest weight in my personal account at about 25%. It's expensive but that is the norm when buying fast growing, payment processors. I like their customer focused approach. They appear to have the secret sauce, based on the clients they are able to attract(eBay, Uber, Spotify, etc). Payments are a sticky business too. Once you sign up with someone, it is hard to leave.

If you wanted to invest in Stripe(private), this would be the best alternative. It's been on a tear lately because of the e-commerce boom, so I would be weary of that. Overall I think this is a solid +10yr buy and hold.

[walds11]

Originally Posted by austinp

The bulls and bears. Some are firmly in one camp or the other. I like hearing from both.

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Got it

[RyanO]

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Does anyone else thing the riots which are erupting across the country coupled with the escalating trade tensions with China might derail this rally?


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[bryan13]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Does anyone else thing the riots which are erupting across the country coupled with the escalating trade tensions with China might derail this rally?


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Thats what you would think and would be most logical. But in the current market bad news is only good news. Futures did open down about a percent, but they will recover and probably be up by open if I had to guess.

[RyanO]

And on that note, futures have recovered most of their losses.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by RyanO

And on that note, futures have recovered most of their losses.

Is anyone really all that surprised? Futures are a total joke at this point.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Is anyone really all that surprised? Futures are a total joke at this point.

I agree...most of the time I look the futures flip from pos to neg or neg to positive overnight, has been the case the past couple weeks at least.

[razzz]

It just goes to show how much uncertainty there is right now. Price discovery at its finest.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

And on that note, futures have recovered most of their losses.

Algos trading the news cycle

Originally Posted by bryan13

Is anyone really all that surprised? Futures are a total joke at this point.

Not sure they are a joke, they are very thinly traded and move on news

Originally Posted by watchmework

I agree...most of the time I look the futures flip from pos to neg or neg to positive overnight, has been the case the past couple weeks at least.

Not enough trade to maintain a more orderly market so they swing very quickly with the news

Originally Posted by razzz

It just goes to show how much uncertainty there is right now. Price discovery at its finest.

Exactly and the overnight futures are an indicator of possible sentiment for the day

[JParm]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...S%3D1591012967

Keeping on the defensive today. I am including TJX to my watchlist, but I don't anticipate making any moves unless we hit a circuit breaker...

[logo]

Extremely thin volume market today. Not much movement for the mega name stocks like AAPL, NKE, HD etc, but large swings in some harder hit stocks like airlines and cruise lines. Need to be cautious on those IMO - not sure that holds into the close.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Extremely thin volume market today. Not much movement for the mega name stocks like AAPL, NKE, HD etc, but large swings in some harder hit stocks like airlines and cruise lines. Need to be cautious on those IMO - not sure that holds into the close.

Was going to same the same. I think people are waiting on the sidelines right now to see how the protests, China relations, etc. will affect this in the near term.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...S%3D1591021226

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Extremely thin volume market today. Not much movement for the mega name stocks like AAPL, NKE, HD etc, but large swings in some harder hit stocks like airlines and cruise lines. Need to be cautious on those IMO - not sure that holds into the close.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Was going to same the same. I think people are waiting on the sidelines right now to see how the protests, China relations, etc. will affect this in the near term.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...S%3D1591021226

Agreed and remember we have entered a seasonally slow time anyway, the news cycle is stranger this year but it is summer. I would expect thin trading and wild swings but I am not sure we break from the trading range until possibly the fall.

I am standing pat at the moment, I removed a lot of my trading cash for a large purchase (planned) so I have less to work with at this time in one of my trading accounts.

[cornerstore]

China tells state firms to halt purchases of major U.S. farm products:


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...104544960.html

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/01/why-...e-streets.html

Interesting article on those asking why we're still up with everything going on in the world.

[beshannon]

Very confusing news flow

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...tuesday-060220

I remain cautious and will protect gains at this level on the S&P

I see no value to purchase at the moment and have been simply watching

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I remain cautious and will protect gains at this level on the S&P

I see no value to purchase at the moment and have been simply watching

Exactly the same for me. Most of my stops closed out at levels I'm very happy with at the end of last week or yesterday. I have cash on hand and will be patient. My remaining open (US) positions are in GOOG, MSFT, WFC, JPM and a smaller one in BRK. That's down from around 25 positions in March. I'm not even close to being tempted to buy into anything here, especially with events unfolding at present.

[kieselguhr]

No adds this week either. Been sticking to the plan and just collecting premiums on airlines and will keep doing so until they get called away from me.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sto...on-51591038369

Some good insight here from yesterday.