the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Yeah, so here is my opinion, my hope, and what I pray for. I have heard a lot of people (some on this thread) with extremely... Pessimistic views. First, I completely understand this is a very serious situation, and I have no knowledge of medicine or (very much) science. If this thread were about flying fighter jets in combat, then I would be a good knowledge base, but it’s not. Joey Chitwood forgot more about medicine and science before breakfast this morning then I will know in my whole life. Heck, anyone that got a B in high-school science knows more then me; I fully admit. People have posted here some high-level sources as stating there will be 250,000 deaths from this virus. I choose not to believe it. Here are my reasons.

First, Spanish Flu killed (around) 600,000 in the early 1900s in my country (all of this relates to the US). That was over 100 years ago. Medicine has progressed thousands of times in the last 100 years. If I am correct, there were no antibiotics to fight this with, no ventilators, nothing compared to what we have today. Technology and knowledge are incredibly advanced from that time. I have faith our efforts will pay off.

Second, (about) seven thousand American’s deaths have been attributed to Corona. My question, how many of these would have succumbed to another flu? Or a pre-existing condition? The most vulnerable are the elderly, and those that have underlying medical issues. I DO NOT BELITTLE ANYONE’S PASSING, I will pray for all those that left us to Rest In Peace, but strictly speaking numbers, how many of those 7,000 would have succumbed to factors other then Corona? I don’t think anyone will ever know but it has to be a number.

Lastly, our efforts are unprecedented. In my 50+ years on this planet I have never seen anything like this, stay at home, other methods.

So, I don’t believe those numbers of 250,000 deaths. Will I be proved wrong? Very possibly, but until then I’ll continue to have faith and pray those numbers are over-blown. You may agree, or disagree, some on this very thread have called me naive (and worse) and maybe they are correct; but that is what I believe. So, everyone stay safe, take your precautions, and let’s all look forward to when this is a memory.

The population was much lower 100 years ago. Let's say roughly 1.8 Billion vs 7.5 billion today. Percentage-wise, let's just hope it does not reach the percentage that the Spanish flu killed.

Other than that, I am hoping and praying that we get nowhere near the expected numbers of 100-250k deaths. I get your point that the 7,000 lives we lost many of which had pre-existing conditions, but they have been taken early from us for no good reason.

[makak]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

At high risk people need to shelter in, everyone else needs to go back to normal activity. Sheltering in is just prolonging this and spreading it out further in time. The majority of the population who test positive will not be going/needing to stay in the hospital. Whether you do what we're doing now, or go back to normal operation the same amount of people needing hospital beds is gong to be the same. Just my opinion, but then again I'm an idiot...

In response to your last sentence, whilst you could be right, it's just about flattening the curve so not all those who will need hospitalisation, require it at the same time and overload those medical staff and resources. It's not about keeping us from contracting the virus, it's about limiting the numbers that have it at any one time. I could be wrong, I too am an idiot at times

[makak]

I read on CNN this morning, and I know you can't believe everything you read, especially when it comes to news reporting. The article stated that front line medical staff were wearing ponchos for protection and didn't have any N95 masks for staff. A few people here have stated they have family members in the medical field. Is this really true?

[DJ39]

Look I am positive and this will end sooner rather than later but the exponential death rate is for real 6k A DAY 3 months into a pandemic is insanely high; unchecked this would have killed millions around the world

This is the REAL DEAL


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[gtnator]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

At high risk people need to shelter in, everyone else needs to go back to normal activity. Sheltering in is just prolonging this and spreading it out further in time. The majority of the population who test positive will not be going/needing to stay in the hospital. Whether you do what we're doing now, or go back to normal operation the same amount of people needing hospital beds is gong to be the same. Just my opinion, but then again I'm an idiot...

You’re half right and half wrong, which in life/death situations makes it 100% wrong. Yes whether we spike the curve straight up by getting everyone sick all at once, or bend the curve by spreading it out, the SAME number of people will get sick. The number of people below the curve remains the same regardless of the shape. But the problem with spiking the curve is those people that do end up needing an ICU bed or ventilator, will not get one because we will have run out. That’s the problem. But if people could space out when they get sick, those that require ICUs will get them. Make sense???

The other advantage of stretching this out slowly is we may get a vaccine in time to actually REDUCE the numbers below the curve.

These are the two primary reasons for physical and social distancing.


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[Kowaco]

Numbers are getting better everyday.

This reminds me of an old cartoon where the guy destroys his whole house to kill a fly and while he’s sitting in the ruins the fly lands on his nose


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Numbers are getting better everyday.

This reminds me of an old cartoon where the guy destroys his whole house to kill a fly and while he’s sitting in the ruins the fly lands on his nose


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What “numbers” are getting better?

The number of masks the general public are donning?

These numbers?

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...n-coming-days/

[gtnator]

Maybe he means these numbers??? :

“This will be probably the toughest week between this week and next week -- and there will be a lot of death, unfortunately,” the president said at a White House briefing.

Trump’s language echoed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who said earlier in the day the state has just seven days to prepare for coronavirus apex as it struggles to expand hospital capacity and access to medical equipment.


Trump says 1,000 military personnel deploying to NYC, warns coming week toughest yet in virus fight https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/trum...pyToPasteboard


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Maybe he means these numbers??? :

“This will be probably the toughest week between this week and next week -- and there will be a lot of death, unfortunately,” the president said at a White House briefing.

Trump’s language echoed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who said earlier in the day the state has just seven days to prepare for coronavirus apex as it struggles to expand hospital capacity and access to medical equipment.


Trump says 1,000 military personnel deploying to NYC, warns coming week toughest yet in virus fight https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/trum...pyToPasteboard


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Even Singapore is showing worse numbers...Japan is looking the same way..

I really don't know where the numbers, or specifically what numbers are better..

[gtnator]

Totally agree. It’s definitely getting worse. Even our President says so, and that’s not easy for him to say.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

At high risk people need to shelter in, everyone else needs to go back to normal activity. Sheltering in is just prolonging this and spreading it out further in time. The majority of the population who test positive will not be going/needing to stay in the hospital. Whether you do what we're doing now, or go back to normal operation the same amount of people needing hospital beds is gong to be the same. Just my opinion, but then again I'm an idiot...

I'm not singling your post out as there are many on this thread who share your opinion..

So, the issue is that even non "high risk" individuals will need medical treatment. Quite a few of those in ICU aren't high risk at all. By going back to normal, health care workers are exposed to more cases than they would be by having limitations. This means more personal risk to them, which can be lethal. Why would they want to work under that duress, especially when they are understaffed and don't have enough PPE.

Is that fair to them?

You get to go to a rock concert with 20,000 other people and they get to deal with the illness that propagates afterwards? Virus is still out there and it loves gatherings of people. It's clear that in the weeks following big gatherings, the medical system in the vicinity gets hammered.

So, here is, potentially, a way through this.

There is a waiver attached to a drivers license or other State ID, identifying a person as a "free participant", meaning they can do whatever they want to...but if they test positive for COVID-19 there will be no medical treatment available through the hospital system. The healthcare workers won't be exposed to huge caseloads due to people's decisions. If you want to go out, then go. Get sick?..it's on you.

On the flip side, if you don't sign the waiver, then you must shelter in place with the exception of grocery store runs and doctor / pharmacy. That's pretty much it.

NO restaurants, bars, churches, concerts, No shopping. No flying around. ..etc. Scanning the ID card will either let people in who have agreed to the terms or deny entry to those who don't.

If these individuals test positive, then they can get treatment.

Then when the cases drop out due to herd immunity or a vaccine...the waiver program stops.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I'm not singling your post out as there are many on this thread who share your opinion..

So, the issue is that even non "high risk" individuals will need medical treatment. Quite a few of those in ICU aren't high risk at all. By going back to normal, health care workers are exposed to more cases than they would be by having limitations. This means more personal risk to them, which can be lethal. Why would they want to work under that duress, especially when they are understaffed and don't have enough PPE.

Is that fair to them?

You get to go to a rock concert with 20,000 other people and they get to deal with the illness that propagates afterwards? Virus is still out there and it loves gatherings of people. It's clear that in the weeks following big gatherings, the medical system in the vicinity gets hammered.

So, here is, potentially, a way through this.

There is a waiver attached to a drivers license or other State ID, identifying a person as a "free participant", meaning they can do whatever they want to...but if they test positive for COVID-19 there will be no medical treatment available through the hospital system. The healthcare workers won't be exposed to huge caseloads due to people's decisions. If you want to go out, then go. Get sick?..it's on you.

On the flip side, if you don't sign the waiver, then you must shelter in place with the exception of grocery store runs and doctor / pharmacy. That's pretty much it.

NO restaurants, bars, churches, concerts, No shopping. No flying around. ..etc. Scanning the ID card will either let people in who have agreed to the terms or deny entry to those who don't.

If these individuals test positive, then they can get treatment.

Then when the cases drop out due to herd immunity or a vaccine...the waiver program stops.

But people out in the community would be?

Could this increase the spread of the virus and the load on the health care workers?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by directioneng

But people out in the community would be?

This would increase the spread of the virus and the load on the health care workers?

People who sign the waiver can be out in the community...the key is if they contract COVID-19, then they won't be eligible for medical treatment for it, so the the medical system won't have to deal with them. Sounds very harsh, I know...but that way they can do as they please and not burden or endanger medical workers due to their choices...

The people who don't sign the waiver, have to stay home and not mess about. That way they don't co-mingle with the the others who want to get moving on with it.

This way people who want to get moving and grooving can, people who want to steer clear of the virus, can and the medical workers aren't overly exposed.

Just an idea to get people what they want and some movement in the economy. This is just an outline...needs some tweeking for different contingencies...such as people who work directly in the service or retail industry would need some kind of exemption or modification of the waiver. They are essentially the next level of exposure to the public below healthcare workers...

[michaelodonnell123]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I never in my lifetime have seen National Guard troops or any troops take anything from any American by force.

The IRS takes your money by force.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

People who sign the waiver can be out in the community...the key is if they contract COVID-19, then they won't be eligible for medical treatment for it, so the the medical system won't have to deal with them. Sounds very harsh, I know...but that way they can do as they please and not burden or endanger medical workers due to their choices...

The people who don't sign the waiver, have to stay home and not mess about. That way they don't co-mingle with the the others who want to get moving on with it.

This way people who want to get moving and grooving can, people who want to steer clear of the virus, can and the medical workers aren't overly exposed.

Just an idea to get people what they want and some movement in the economy. This is just an outline...needs some tweeking for different contingencies...

People who sign that waiver would not care about the affect on others and would do what they want to do. This is the main problem we have now.
If all the distancing and other requirements were being carried out by everyone things would be very different.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by directioneng

People who sign that waiver would not care about the affect on others and would do what they want to do. This is the main problem we have now.
If all the distancing and other requirements were being carried out by everyone things would be very different.

That’s correct, but there would no treatment for them if they contract the virus.

I agree with you, btw....I would hope it wouldn’t come to any of that, but as long as the virus is about, there is no normal, so if people really want to choose to do what they want, they can’t ask healthcare workers to bear the brunt of their choices.

[Moggo]

Unbelievable, 3000 people apparently attended Richmond Park in London yesterday in gatherings to sunbathe and barbecue! It annoys me so much that the headlines are then ‘U.K. Ignores Lockdown’!

Most of the U.K. abided by the guidelines, why tar us all with the same brush?! My area was like a ghost town, even the parks. I guess media and facts just don’t mix.


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[Andad]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Unbelievable, 3000 people apparently attended Richmond Park in London yesterday in gatherings to sunbathe and barbecue! It annoys me so much that the headlines are then ‘U.K. Ignores Lockdown’!

Most of the U.K. abided by the guidelines, why tar us all with the same brush?! My area was like a ghost town, even the parks. I guess media and facts just don’t mix.


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I feel sorry for the price that the some will pay for the bad decisions of others.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Unbelievable, 3000 people apparently attended Richmond Park in London yesterday in gatherings to sunbathe and barbecue! It annoys me so much that the headlines are then ‘U.K. Ignores Lockdown’!

Most of the U.K. abided by the guidelines, why tar us all with the same brush?! My area was like a ghost town, even the parks. I guess media and facts just don’t mix.


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Outrage sells papers.

I’ve been heartened by the national reaction to the pandemic. Hundreds of thousands volunteering to help the NHS; the vast majority abiding by measures that restrict their freedom purely for the greater good and in the main doing so with good grace. It seems that there really is such a thing as society after all.

[Brew]

I wonder how many ventilators are in the rural county hospitals where folks still feel safe?

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Here’s a possibility. Maybe social distancing and other measures to prevent the spread of Covid are working. Not as much fun as a conspiracy theory though, huh?

What I don’t understand is that countries have been quick to lock down their people, yet have been very very reluctant to close down airlines. Earlier this year, we saw China imposing restrictions on movement, with Wuhan locked down completely, yet 40 flights a day were arriving in the UK from China, with no checks other than a vague request to self isolate if unwell. Similarly a few weeks later with Northern Italy - major breakout of cor9na virus, yet the skiing season in full swing with flights across Europe

As if governments wanted to spread it around

[Brew]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

What I don’t understand is that countries have been quick to lock down their people, yet have been very very reluctant to close down airlines. Earlier this year, we saw China imposing restrictions on movement, with Wuhan locked down completely, yet 40 flights a day were arriving in the UK from China, with no checks other than a vague request to self isolate if unwell. Similarly a few weeks later with Northern Italy - major breakout of cor9na virus, yet the skiing season in full swing with flights across Europe

As if governments wanted to spread it around

Maybe for the same reason we saw beaches open for spring break here . . . . $$$?

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

People who sign the waiver can be out in the community...the key is if they contract COVID-19, then they won't be eligible for medical treatment for it, so the the medical system won't have to deal with them. Sounds very harsh, I know...but that way they can do as they please and not burden or endanger medical workers due to their choices...

The people who don't sign the waiver, have to stay home and not mess about. That way they don't co-mingle with the the others who want to get moving on with it.

This way people who want to get moving and grooving can, people who want to steer clear of the virus, can and the medical workers aren't overly exposed.

Just an idea to get people what they want and some movement in the economy. This is just an outline...needs some tweeking for different contingencies...such as people who work directly in the service or retail industry would need some kind of exemption or modification of the waiver. They are essentially the next level of exposure to the public below healthcare workers...

But the problem is the asymptomatic spread... Just because people sign a waiver to be free to roam, doesn't mean they won't necessarily bring the virus back to others who chose to shelter in place.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Numbers are getting better everyday.

This reminds me of an old cartoon where the guy destroys his whole house to kill a fly and while he’s sitting in the ruins the fly lands on his nose


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This guy... what numbers are you referring to? Can you please elaborate?

[bondtoys]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

yet the skiing season in full swing with flights across Europe

As if governments wanted to spread it around

You may want to check your sources, because both is totally wrong!

[Horosopher]

Did we hijack those masks intended for Europe? Germany and France now seem to accuse us for "modern piracy".


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...bidding-demand

[SkyJuice]

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

People laughing at me would be the least of my concerns!

Agree. I chose ignore them. However my encounter just goes to show there are still people who are not taking this seriously!

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I'm not singling your post out as there are many on this thread who share your opinion..

So, the issue is that even non "high risk" individuals will need medical treatment. Quite a few of those in ICU aren't high risk at all. By going back to normal, health care workers are exposed to more cases than they would be by having limitations. This means more personal risk to them, which can be lethal. Why would they want to work under that duress, especially when they are understaffed and don't have enough PPE.

Is that fair to them?

You get to go to a rock concert with 20,000 other people and they get to deal with the illness that propagates afterwards? Virus is still out there and it loves gatherings of people. It's clear that in the weeks following big gatherings, the medical system in the vicinity gets hammered.

So, here is, potentially, a way through this.

There is a waiver attached to a drivers license or other State ID, identifying a person as a "free participant", meaning they can do whatever they want to...but if they test positive for COVID-19 there will be no medical treatment available through the hospital system. The healthcare workers won't be exposed to huge caseloads due to people's decisions. If you want to go out, then go. Get sick?..it's on you.

On the flip side, if you don't sign the waiver, then you must shelter in place with the exception of grocery store runs and doctor / pharmacy. That's pretty much it.

NO restaurants, bars, churches, concerts, No shopping. No flying around. ..etc. Scanning the ID card will either let people in who have agreed to the terms or deny entry to those who don't.

If these individuals test positive, then they can get treatment.

Then when the cases drop out due to herd immunity or a vaccine...the waiver program stops.

It must be exhausting to be an expert authority on so very many subjects.

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Numbers are getting better everyday.

This reminds me of an old cartoon where the guy destroys his whole house to kill a fly and while he’s sitting in the ruins the fly lands on his nose


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Not sure what numbers you are seeing that are getting better.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by mannyv11

Not sure what numbers you are seeing that are getting better.

Not sure about the US but deaths are trending down in France, Italy and Spain in the last few days. Long may it continue


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