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[rolexpure]

Watch market is gonna keep dropping.

So many ppl are offloading its kind of concerning now even to me who wants the market to drop. The amount for sale and the rate at which prices are dropping is not good.

I think within a span of 2-3 weeks its wiped out 2 months+ of gains.

I reckon heaps of dealers are still laughing at all of us. They just pulled a massive pump and dump just like the big players do on the share market.

End users or speculative flippers getting burnt bigtime now. Whoever had bought anything at gray prices in the last 2-3 months are down at least 20%-25% most likely more because all grays are lowballing bigtime now.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Watch market is gonna keep dropping.

So many ppl are offloading its kind of concerning now even to me who wants the market to drop. The amount for sale and the rate at which prices are dropping is not good.

I think within a span of 2-3 weeks its wiped out 2 months+ of gains.

I reckon heaps of dealers are still laughing at all of us. They just pulled a massive pump and dump just like the big players do on the share market.

End users or speculative flippers getting burnt bigtime now. Whoever had bought anything at gray prices in the last 2-3 months are down at least 20%-25% most likely more because all grays are lowballing bigtime now.

I think it depends. A lot of the gains since beginning of 2022 have been attributed to dealer-to-dealer sales that inflated prices. Moreover, I’ve been told that “dealer-to-dealer” = wholesalers selling to speculative “backpack” dealers looking for quick-flips on the way up.

So, I think those dealers that are carrying a lot of inventory that they bought pre-2022 are fine, but should be vigilant of market. Those fly-by-night backpack dealers looking for a quick buck are probably getting slaughtered.

Corrections of this sort are healthy in my opinion for the overall market, but surely painful for those holding the bag right now.

[amh]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Watch market is gonna keep dropping.

So many ppl are offloading its kind of concerning now even to me who wants the market to drop. The amount for sale and the rate at which prices are dropping is not good.

I think within a span of 2-3 weeks its wiped out 2 months+ of gains.

I reckon heaps of dealers are still laughing at all of us. They just pulled a massive pump and dump just like the big players do on the share market.

End users or speculative flippers getting burnt bigtime now. Whoever had bought anything at gray prices in the last 2-3 months are down at least 20%-25% most likely more because all grays are lowballing bigtime now.

Indeed.

Private party sales are the canary in the coal mine:
- Flipper gets lucky and buys watch at AD
- Flipper tries to sell to Grey... they don't want!
- Flipper posts on TRF slightly lower than the Moda grey2grey price

Now is not the time to buy grey or private party. We must simply wait as the prices approach MSRP.

FWIW I'm a believer now, yes prices are falling. It's just a matter of time until DavidSW and the other giants are forced to lower their prices as well.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Watch market is gonna keep dropping.

So many ppl are offloading its kind of concerning now even to me who wants the market to drop. The amount for sale and the rate at which prices are dropping is not good.

I think within a span of 2-3 weeks its wiped out 2 months+ of gains.

I reckon heaps of dealers are still laughing at all of us. They just pulled a massive pump and dump just like the big players do on the share market.

End users or speculative flippers getting burnt bigtime now. Whoever had bought anything at gray prices in the last 2-3 months are down at least 20%-25% most likely more because all grays are lowballing bigtime now.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, prices on many Rolex watches are continuing to climb. Steel Subs, for instance.

There's been a dip of 5-10% on some models.

Claiming that you know exactly what will happen to prices in the future is absurd.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

You should get one. My prediction is that you will have one in two weeks, and in 3 weeks time the market for the green LV will be a buck and a quarter.

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Not sure what you are saying but exactly 5 weeks for my new LV Sub! Sometimes it just pays to have a game plan. New boutique opened, I was there the day before, met with a SA who apologized it was going to take them an extra day to open the store. She took down a small variety of models I was looking for, exchanged mobile numbers with me and the next day I was third in line for rope drop. Second in line was a nice fellow watch nerd and fellow TRF member who may be getting his requested model any day now.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by garyk

Not sure what you are saying but exactly 5 weeks for my new LV Sub! Sometimes it just pays to have a game plan. New boutique opened, I was there the day before, met with a SA who apologized it was going to take them an extra day to open the store. She took down a small variety of models I was looking for, exchanged mobile numbers with me and the next day I was third in line for rope drop. Second in line was a nice fellow watch nerd and fellow TRF member who may be getting his requested model any day now.

Very, very good . Enjoy Gary!

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[Time Out]

Seen a NIB Sky D white sell for sub 20k. Market is falling very very quickly !

[1665fan]

Seems like 116520 are now headed to pass the ceramics In value……and they might be less produced also so will be a rarer piece also

[Sandpit]

It’ll be a race to the bottom now. Anyone with a lot of stock either needs to get rid or needs to be holding significant cash reserves to see them through

[ravellee]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Seen a NIB Sky D white sell for sub 20k. Market is falling very very quickly !

this is good news for us

[rdragon]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Seen a NIB Sky D white sell for sub 20k. Market is falling very very quickly !

Getting exciting. Let's flush this.

[amh]

Polar Exp2 selling for $<15k, down from $18k two weeks ago

[garyk]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Very, very good . Enjoy Gary!

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[1665fan]

DD olive on the sales corner forum down to 98000US…….everybody hang onto their hats!!!

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Meanwhile, back in the real world, prices on many Rolex watches are continuing to climb. Steel Subs, for instance.

There's been a dip of 5-10% on some models.

Claiming that you know exactly what will happen to prices in the future is absurd.

I have seen 126040 in the 14's and 126610 in the low 15's

Even some brand new models so I dont think they are rising

Originally Posted by 1665fan

DD olive on the sales corner forum down to 98000US…….everybody hang onto their hats!!!

Seen a 2022 BNIB posted just today right here on TRF for $81k.

Are these out outlier's? I dont know. All I can say is One seller typically leads to two then three then hopefully all. The big Greys are doing there best to hold firm but hopefully they all start pricing with some sense of reality.

200-300X Msrp is just insane. Just ruins the hobby and all the fun. Are the Greys solely to blame?? Absolutely NOT!! But they arent exactly helping either with there tricks and games that some do. Not all. Some. Dealer to dealer pricing, posting a watch sold/on hold to create the false sense that business is booming only to relist the same said watch, and on and on.

All I know is out of my entire collection I'm down to 2 that I went Grey on/paid a premium and I will not be adding a third or fourth. Are we headed for a crash? I doubt it but I'm done with Rolex outside of a 505 or the new Platinum DD. If I ever get one of those 2 it will be from an A D which basically means I wont be getting either

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by amh

Indeed.

Private party sales are the canary in the coal mine:
- Flipper gets lucky and buys watch at AD
- Flipper tries to sell to Grey... they don't want!
- Flipper posts on TRF slightly lower than the Moda grey2grey price

Now is not the time to buy grey or private party. We must simply wait as the prices approach MSRP.

FWIW I'm a believer now, yes prices are falling. It's just a matter of time until DavidSW and the other giants are forced to lower their prices as well.

Not many on here who wouldn’t openly admit a change of mindset.

I agree that the rest will eventually update their pricing to reflect the current market.

[TswaneNguni]

Hard day at work today ,relaxing,munching shortbread and coffee,wearing a PAM422 reading all this ....good comic relief and feeling very content .

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by amh

It's just a matter of time until DavidSW and the other giants are forced to lower their prices as well.

The giants ???

[kirth]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Hard day at work today ,relaxing,munching shortbread and coffee,wearing a PAM422 reading all this ....good comic relief and feeling very content .

Heading to the airport wearing a 510.

[TheWatchmen]

I am actually for once “genuinely” interested in a pricing thread.

I need to set a reminder on my phone for sometime in November to revisit this and hopefully laugh (not cry).

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by kirth

Heading to the airport wearing a 510.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Seems like 116520 are now headed to pass the ceramics In value……and they might be less produced also so will be a rarer piece also

At the moment, they went down a bit, but nowhere near the level of the ceramics. Might take a while till they pass the ceramics in value imho.

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

DD olive on the sales corner forum down to 98000US…….everybody hang onto their hats!!!

There is zero chance it’s going to sell for anywhere near that price. Zilch, nada. This is just an IG overhyped piece… It’s a nice looking watch, but it’s no classic.

It boggles my mind anybody would consider paying anywhere near that. That’s ~$50K above MSPR - you’re better off spending that $50K at an AD on some nice jewelry or other watches, and most will roll the red carpet and allocate the DD to you. It’s no Platona…

Unless you’re really well-off, and that kind of money is pocket change, but then you should be a whale at your AD, and have a pick of any piece you want anyway.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by jarecki

There is zero chance it’s going to sell for anywhere near that price. Zilch, nada. This is just an IG overhyped piece… It’s a nice looking watch, but it’s no classic.



It boggles my mind anybody would consider paying anywhere near that

100% agree. There are two for sale on dealer groups in the last few hours at $77.5k. Almost $100k seems a long way away!!



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[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

DD olive on the sales corner forum down to 98000US…….everybody hang onto their hats!!!

Sorry. Looks like DD Olives are about $20k lower than the price you listed. And this was last week.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftFR51Su6Wc&t=22m12s

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jarecki

There is zero chance it’s going to sell for anywhere near that price. Zilch, nada. This is just an IG overhyped piece… It’s a nice looking watch, but it’s no classic.

It boggles my mind anybody would consider paying anywhere near that. That’s ~$50K above MSPR - you’re better off spending that $50K at an AD on some nice jewelry or other watches, and most will roll the red carpet and allocate the DD to you. It’s no Platona…

Unless you’re really well-off, and that kind of money is pocket change, but then you should be a whale at your AD, and have a pick of any piece you want anyway.

while i think it's ridiculous to pay that much for it i still think it's one of the best configurations in the catalog right now. there's a reason it originally started picking up with regards to demand because it's a very unique combination on an already prestigious watch, unlike for example the turquoise OP which was just because it resembled a tiffany color scheme on an entry level model. i wouldn't ever pay that kind of premium but just mean at least it's understandable. it's also only a matter of time until it gets discontinued. also no point comparing it to a platona which was going for ~200k without baguettes at the same time

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Sorry. Looks like DD Olives are about $20k lower than the price you listed. And this was last week.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftFR51Su6Wc&t=22m12s

It was more of a joke………

[jtli202]

price are not going down. if you say it enough times, i'm sure it will be true

[illiguy]

China and Asia have largely been on lockdown. I would suspect that is a non-immaterial factor with respect to the correction also.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Seems like 116520 are now headed to pass the ceramics In value……and they might be less produced also so will be a rarer piece also

Seen some for sale on other forums for under $25k and no takers.