Chasing steel Nautilus in 2024

[FrançoisCzapek]

I was curious whether people think the market has stabilized enough to pursue discontinued steel Nautilus models on the gray market. Prices have gone back down to 2020 levels (which are not low, despite being almost half of peak 2022) but many pre-Covid steel models have since been discontinued.

I'm wondering if anyone who was genuinely interested in a steel Nautilus could consider getting one as there are many on the secondary market now and not be wary that prices on these hyped pieces will continue to drop.

Questions:

1) Have prices stabilized enough that someone who saved up for a steel Nautilus can consider it now, or should he be wary that prices may still have some more to decline? Steel Nautilus are still above retail, but much less than 100% over retail (or what would be projected to be retail) now (although retail price has also increased).

2) Is there any specific model whose price history diverged, such as the price declining much more or much less than the rest?

3) Is it smart to pursue steel over gold in 2024 (assuming it's the look you like to begin with), with steel maintaining a cachet and gold (especially yellow and rose) less popular with younger buyers? Or might the premium on steel collapse the moment Patek releases new steel models?

(In particular, would you pursue the white gold 5740 if it's within budget, or would you go for the steel complications only if you want a complication despite the thicker watch?)

4) Is it smart to pursue the thinner basic 5711 or the 5712 over the thicker complications (again, assuming it's the look you like)? These seem to have proved popular due the the thinness, even if the 5711 is not really rare and the 5712 has that asymmetric dial.

5) Is there any particular dial and face to look out for (excluding Tiffany dials)? I understand blue is desirable and arguably looks best on these older Nautilus, but that black and white are rarer.

6) Is there any particular configuration to look out for specifically for Nautilus, such as focusing on steel bracelet over leather strap models?

7) Is there any particular advice on checking that a gray market watch has not been polished?

8) Would you consider building a relationship with an AD in 2024 if a Nautilus is the goal, or just buy gray if you think there is a short term price window to pursue? Presumably waiting lists remain just as long and enough of the hype is alive.

[huncho]

no offense but this is a weird thread. you just created one about perpetuals where you listed like 8 different models you're after and now you have a similar thread about at least 6 different nautilus models

your questions are all worded as investment questions in disguise, like if you want a specific model over another why else would you consider whether or not it's "smart" to go for the other one? are you looking to buy something at a price where your money is safe? why not just state that instead, because this is not the process people go through when they want to buy watches like this

[jgottsman11]

If this is how I thought about my watch purchases I'd probably be gray in the head here at 27. I buy things that my eyes, brain, and heart like. While that changes from time to time, it is typically a gold day date or now some sort of gold patek sports model

[rjohnston713]

I'm going to take a chance and assume you're maybe in a similar situation to me. Have watches and looking to make a step up to a true watch like Patek.

For me getting my first Patek is a huge deal one because its a milestone in my collecting journey and a true sense of accomplishment but second because they are a large sum of money and while I don't view them as investments I also want to feel like I am making the right choice when I could take that same amount of money and put a down payment on an investment property or something instead.

Unfortunately for me I don't like any of the current pieces Patek has in its catalogue except for the 5712 which from the first time I saw it and even knew what it was I thought it was the nicest watch I'd ever seen. Sadly there is 0 shot at getting that at retail with no PP spend history.

I then decided to look at older models (I don't like vintage) so I kept it to watched newer than year 2000 and found 5 others that spoke to me. The 5146, 5550, 3940, 5140, and 5320 as well as the 5712. I also have smaller wrists so the journey begins with finding ways to try on all of these watches rather than just seeing photos and then get a sense for what is the best path forward.

If you have all of these questions on the front end I would recommend going out of your way to find ways to actually try them on which is what I am trying to do now. That way at the end your mind will be at ease when it's finally time to purchase and it'll feel less like an investment piece and more like an extension of your personality.

[soxfan39]

I think you packed a whole year's worth of PP thread questions in one post!

You're overthinking it. Just buy what you love.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Originally Posted by rjohnston713

I'm going to take a chance and assume you're maybe in a similar situation to me. Have watches and looking to make a step up to a true watch like Patek.

I own more than one Patek, owned the first many years ago, and definitely own a complication.

More like since I first found a Patek as a recent grad, I knew I really wanted a perpetual chronograph both for the aesthetic and the intricacy but was of course not in a position to chase one then. Today, I have some Patek collector friends saying to go for it and others saying to pick up a Nautilus first.

Not sure why it's weird to be discussing two of the most prominent categories of Patek on a Patek forum.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Originally Posted by huncho

your questions are all worded as investment questions in disguise, like if you want a specific model over another why else would you consider whether or not it's "smart" to go for the other one?

Not really. Anyone not a centimillionaire spending at least $80-100,000 on a watch is entitled to think about the financial consequences even if those are not what are driving him.

For example, if my grail is a perpetual chronograph but I'd love to also own an Aquanaut, I'd need to think whether prices might eventually start going up and they might stop being within reach or it might not make sense to you to buy a steel watch at a multiple of retail.

Or if you think about a platinum or white gold Rolex Day Date over an Aquanaut or Royal Oak, but friends warn you that Day Dates were produced in much larger numbers and historically never held value or appreciated, not even platinum models.

Not sure why this forum is so hostile to practical questions about value, not everyone considering them is a flipper. I've never sold any of my watches in decades, not even the much cheaper passion purchases. Doesn't mean I educate myself on their price history or understand when something I want is below retail.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

Not really. Anyone not a centimillionaire spending at least $80-100,000 on a watch is entitled to think about the financial consequences even if those are not what are driving him.

For example, if my grail is a perpetual chronograph but I'd love to also own an Aquanaut, I'd need to think whether prices might eventually start going up and they might stop being within reach or it might not make sense to you to buy a steel watch at a multiple of retail.

Or if you think about a platinum or white gold Rolex Day Date over an Aquanaut or Royal Oak, but friends warn you that Day Dates were produced in much larger numbers and historically never held value or appreciated, not even platinum models.

Not sure why this forum is so hostile to practical questions about value, not everyone considering them is a flipper. I've never sold any of my watches in decades, not even the much cheaper passion purchases. Doesn't mean I educate myself on their price history or understand when something I want is below retail.

You're asking people to predict the future. No one knows.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

You're asking people to predict the future. No one knows.

Many enjoy discussing it anyway!

For added context, my recent threads are absolutely logical if you look at it from the perspective of someone who owns a complication, something that is a grail for most people but a starter watch for the hardcore. Your main paths from there are to go for a perpetual or perpetual chronograph, or chase a steel Nautilus if you never did pre-Covid but thought of it. Not sure why people react negatively to questions from this perspective.

[BlondesNwatches]

It sounds like an AI computer doing human studies research or something.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Then I'd love to talk to the people who actually owned Nautiluses from before the hype and not LARPs.

[Ellz]

I think we should go back to the classics- The DNA of where it all started Don’t chase those hard to get pieces or let shops and AD’s give you the run around- this is my favorite piece and I wear it many days all year 😊. Hope you like itIMG_5483.jpeg

[FrançoisCzapek]

I very much like it. A friend whose opinion is steel Nautilus may get even further out of reach in coming years just made me think.

[watchgeezer]

I personally think 5726a with blue dial is the best nautilus in the range

[pessoa00]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

Then I'd love to talk to the people who actually owned Nautiluses from before the hype and not LARPs.

I owned a 5980a, 5712r, 5711g and a 5167/1a (this one with a 10% discount). All were sold way before the hype.

Had plenty of opportunities to get the jumbo RO and basically any Journe with significant discounts.

This goes to show that market changes, sometimes dramatically. Just research how Panerais were doing 10 ˜ 15 years ago and how they are now.
Back in the day AP Offshores were extremely sought after while nobody cared about the RO, today is the opposite.
I remember when the 5070 was much more popular then any nautilus. Today it’s sucessor can be bought grey with huge discounts.

If you have the opportunity to buy a nautilus you really like from an AD, then it is a no brainer. Otherwise, if you go grey, comparing a nautilus with a huge premium to a similarly priced perpetual chrono, makes no sense IMO. The later is miles ahead by any measure (maybe except the 5740).

Nautiluses are hot now, but they are loosing steam and there is no way to now how they’ll be a few years from now, so paying grey prices just because they are hyped now and not because you really love them is not the wisest decision IMO.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Thanks for that very thoughtful reply. Is there any way to educate myself on the trends you describe, like the rise of Panerais? I've found that it's harder to find discussions fleshing out what you just wrote, unless perhaps I subscribe to WatchCharts.

The devil's advocate argument to what you mention, of course, is that Nautilus/Royal Oak/Daytona found a market outside the "watch guys" that bucks past trends. So I have a friend egging me that a Nautilus at a 20-30% premium might be something to consider because it is more attainable than a Nautilus at a 100%+ premium, especially with steel sports Pateks ironically being argued as unobtainum because the cheaper material is rarer for Pateks. Everyone up to Tom Brady wears Patek grand complication dress watches on Instagram, but this broader appeal especially after Covid made dress codes more casual is not just another trend.

What would you think of this? Or per your post, would you be thinking that trends are trends, and who knows if the Nautilus, including the discontinued steel models, will return below retail while a particular white gold Calatrava or something else becomes the hype watch next decade due to a GenZ swing to formal dress?

[HMHM]

If anyone has the skills/ability to predict the future like what you are asking, they would be buying the next Apple/Tesla stocks and laughing all the way to the bank.

The fact of the matter is simple - if you buy something you like and feel strongly about, chances are there will be similar minded people like you out there who share the same sentiment. That creates a small market by itself. First mover advantage is often achieved by people who strongly believe in something and strongly pursue it, even when no one seems to understand why.

[pessoa00]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

Thanks for that very thoughtful reply. Is there any way to educate myself on the trends you describe, like the rise of Panerais? I've found that it's harder to find discussions fleshing out what you just wrote, unless perhaps I subscribe to WatchCharts.

The devil's advocate argument to what you mention, of course, is that Nautilus/Royal Oak/Daytona found a market outside the "watch guys" that bucks past trends. So I have a friend egging me that a Nautilus at a 20-30% premium might be something to consider because it is more attainable than a Nautilus at a 100%+ premium, especially with steel sports Pateks ironically being argued as unobtainum because the cheaper material is rarer for Pateks. Everyone up to Tom Brady wears Patek grand complication dress watches on Instagram, but this broader appeal especially after Covid made dress codes more casual is not just another trend.

What would you think of this? Or per your post, would you be thinking that trends are trends, and who knows if the Nautilus, including the discontinued steel models, will return below retail while a particular white gold Calatrava or something else becomes the hype watch next decade due to a GenZ swing to formal dress?

The Daytona is probably one of the few that kept the desirability status for decades, although it wasn’t popular in the beginning.

I think that the market these hyped pieces found in non watch people doesn't bode well for the sustainability of their premiums over the long term, because most of these new customers think of them as investments and not beautiful pieces of high horology. Many people who went grey have be burned with that though over the past 2 years as many pieces have lost substantial value and some of those new customers are trying to cut their losses putting more pressure on secondary market prices. Just have a look of the trend for some of these pieces over the past 1 or 2 years (watchcharts and chrono24 are good sources). For most of them we seem far from a stabilisation of the prices.

On the other hand, some old grand complications are doing quite well. Take a look at the 5970, 3940r, and others.

Over the long term I don’t think you’ll see the hyped watches trading bellow current retail price (although they could be bellow a future retail price), but that doesn’t justify paying significant premiums. It only means you should be ok paying retail today.

I have nothing against going grey, but I think that solution is mostly for people who are after a specific watch, intend to keep it for a long time and dont want to take “the journey” with an AD. It can also be for someone looking for a non hyped piece with a significant discount.

I never understood people with deep pockets that bought multiple hyped watches grey. I find it hard to believe that a true collector (someone passionate about watches, regardless of the budget) can only like hyped pieces. Is he collecting for himself or to show off to others?

As to sources about the watch market from over 15 years ago, it shouldn’t be easy. Panerai had a tremendous community named the Paneristi that were fuelled by a forum with the same name. The level of participation was almost comparable with the Rolex forum on this site. That forum was moved to Tapatalk and has since died. The community still exists and is still (barely) active on Facebook, they still organise gatherings once a year (this year I think is in Singapore), but nothing comparable to the craziness of the old days.

You seem to have a significant budget and are willing to do some research on a major purchase. My advice is don’t buy a watch because someone tells you it is the watch to get. Research the brands you like, the models, the complications, the designs, the history and see what truly speaks to you. If it is a nautilus, than great, try to find the best deal you can, or maybe wait a little bit as prices are getting better by the day. But if it is a current chrono perpetual or other grand comp piece, than don’t dismiss it because it is not hyped. That fact only makes it a better purchase today because you have the opportunity to source a major discount on the piece, and because of that there is a chance your spending is better protected from devaluation than a grey nautilus over the long term

[John Doyle]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

I was curious whether people think the market has stabilized enough to pursue discontinued steel Nautilus models on the gray market. Prices have gone back down to 2020 levels (which are not low, despite being almost half of peak 2022) but many pre-Covid steel models have since been discontinued.

I'm wondering if anyone who was genuinely interested in a steel Nautilus could consider getting one as there are many on the secondary market now and not be wary that prices on these hyped pieces will continue to drop.

Questions:

1) Have prices stabilized enough that someone who saved up for a steel Nautilus can consider it now, or should he be wary that prices may still have some more to decline? Steel Nautilus are still above retail, but much less than 100% over retail (or what would be projected to be retail) now (although retail price has also increased).

2) Is there any specific model whose price history diverged, such as the price declining much more or much less than the rest?

3) Is it smart to pursue steel over gold in 2024 (assuming it's the look you like to begin with), with steel maintaining a cachet and gold (especially yellow and rose) less popular with younger buyers? Or might the premium on steel collapse the moment Patek releases new steel models?

(In particular, would you pursue the white gold 5740 if it's within budget, or would you go for the steel complications only if you want a complication despite the thicker watch?)

4) Is it smart to pursue the thinner basic 5711 or the 5712 over the thicker complications (again, assuming it's the look you like)? These seem to have proved popular due the the thinness, even if the 5711 is not really rare and the 5712 has that asymmetric dial.

5) Is there any particular dial and face to look out for (excluding Tiffany dials)? I understand blue is desirable and arguably looks best on these older Nautilus, but that black and white are rarer.

6) Is there any particular configuration to look out for specifically for Nautilus, such as focusing on steel bracelet over leather strap models?

7) Is there any particular advice on checking that a gray market watch has not been polished?

8) Would you consider building a relationship with an AD in 2024 if a Nautilus is the goal, or just buy gray if you think there is a short term price window to pursue? Presumably waiting lists remain just as long and enough of the hype is alive.

Buy what you like.

[Daytonaman799]

Originally Posted by Ellz

I think we should go back to the classics- The DNA of where it all started Don’t chase those hard to get pieces or let shops and AD’s give you the run around- this is my favorite piece and I wear it many days all year 😊. Hope you like itAttachment 1435981

3970g? Beautiful!

[FrançoisCzapek]

Originally Posted by pessoa00

You seem to have a significant budget and are willing to do some research on a major purchase. My advice is don’t buy a watch because someone tells you it is the watch to get. Research the brands you like, the models, the complications, the designs, the history and see what truly speaks to you. If it is a nautilus, than great, try to find the best deal you can, or maybe wait a little bit as prices are getting better by the day. But if it is a current chrono perpetual or other grand comp piece, than don’t dismiss it because it is not hyped. That fact only makes it a better purchase today because you have the opportunity to source a major discount on the piece, and because of that there is a chance your spending is better protected from devaluation than a grey nautilus over the long term

Thanks for still another very thoughtful reply.

I like to think out loud and do some research, but know what I really want is a Patek perpetual chronograph. I am also interested in other things, not necessarily to buy in the near future. I'm developing a belated appreciation for the Nautilus, especially with Patek giving current model Nautilus and Aquanauts new look, like that denim strap Mark Wahlberg was photographed with. But then you can always aim to buy more than one watch!

On Panerai, that's what gets me. I also find their watches interesting and respect the heritage, but knowledge collated on a now defunct internet forum is not accessible to me even if I had the time and patience to backread it all. And even then, it would be hard to get a feel for the historical price and popularity.

[Ellz]

Originally Posted by Daytonaman799

3970g? Beautiful!

Thank you Daytona yes 3970g