Fair Pricing - Advice Needed

[ryangambrill]

Hello All -

I am investigating going grey for my next piece. It one of the more difficult pieces to obtain from an AD and I know I don't have enough spend history.

I review the classifieds on RF daily for prices. Also take a look at the major grey dealers online. It is not uncommon for me to see a range of 10%-20% from the highest to lowest price for same model. In many instances I see a variance of 25% between reputable sellers here on RF and some of the major grey dealers (even some grey dealers that also sell on here). I have been disregarding posts in classifieds from sellers with little to no history.

How do you all benchmark prices in order to determine the deal in front of you?

To be clear, I am not looking for a "deal". Just want the piece at a fair market price.

Thanks!

[mgsooner]

Join Moda Watch Club group on Facebook. They also have an under 10K group. I have no skin in their game at all. Never sold a watch there. But it is a very useful tool for seeing what pieces are actually SELLING for at any given time.

[gates]

You can analyze this to death - find a seller your comfortable with that has the piece youre looking for in the condition you want the piece to be in - find 2 or 3 that meet those criteria, see who has the low price and make your purchase - easy peasy..

[GrailTime]

Originally Posted by ryangambrill

Hello All -

I am investigating going grey for my next piece. It one of the more difficult pieces to obtain from an AD and I know I don't have enough spend history.

I review the classifieds on RF daily for prices. Also take a look at the major grey dealers online. It is not uncommon for me to see a range of 10%-20% from the highest to lowest price for same model. In many instances I see a variance of 25% between reputable sellers here on RF and some of the major grey dealers (even some grey dealers that also sell on here). I have been disregarding posts in classifieds from sellers with little to no history.

How do you all benchmark prices in order to determine the deal in front of you?

To be clear, I am not looking for a "deal". Just want the piece at a fair market price.

Thanks!

Give us a clue. What are you looking for?

[GrailTime]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Join Moda Watch Club group on Facebook. They also have an under 10K group. I have no skin in their game at all. Never sold a watch there. But it is a very useful tool for seeing what pieces are actually SELLING for at any given time.

Agree. Seeing what is selling on there is the trick and there is some great dealers.

[ryangambrill]

Gmt - 126710blro

[padi56]

Originally Posted by ryangambrill

Hello All -

I am investigating going grey for my next piece. It one of the more difficult pieces to obtain from an AD and I know I don't have enough spend history.

I review the classifieds on RF daily for prices. Also take a look at the major grey dealers online. It is not uncommon for me to see a range of 10%-20% from the highest to lowest price for same model. In many instances I see a variance of 25% between reputable sellers here on RF and some of the major grey dealers (even some grey dealers that also sell on here). I have been disregarding posts in classifieds from sellers with little to no history.

How do you all benchmark prices in order to determine the deal in front of you?

To be clear, I am not looking for a "deal". Just want the piece at a fair market price.

Thanks!

A fair market price is what anyone is willing to pay but most grey prices are crazy but people still buy them.

[BillA]

Going to be a very hard piece to land even thru an AD.
Grey market prices are insane. If you have the money, go for it, but you have to understand you are paying a premium. If that premium puts a big smile on your face and you can afford it, go for it. Good luck.

[THC]

Try AIS watches… he ( Aamir) to me, I the most reasonable priced Grey here

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Join Moda Watch Club group on Facebook. They also have an under 10K group. I have no skin in their game at all. Never sold a watch there. But it is a very useful tool for seeing what pieces are actually SELLING for at any given time.

I recently joined Moda ( thanks Tom BTW :agree).

It pretty interesting to look at the prices compared to say a C24 (which we all know prices things at the aspirational level

[rmlovett1]

Originally Posted by BillA

Going to be a very hard piece to land even thru an AD.
Grey market prices are insane. If you have the money, go for it, but you have to understand you are paying a premium. If that premium puts a big smile on your face and you can afford it, go for it. Good luck.

⬆️⬆️⬆️ agreed! Certain pieces will be a higher relationship dollar to dollar vs msrp depending on the popularity of the model, and the grey dealers exploit that as they should in their line of business.
Another factor that definitely comes into play when splitting dollars/negotiating between grey dealers, is the amount they have invested in the piece, or possibly how long it’s been in their inventory and they’d like to get it off the books.

[996marty]

Find one you like from a reputable seller. Quite a few get mentioned on the forum and just prepare yourself for the price because it’s always more than you’d like.
Once you find what you like maybe share it on here to get some feedback on if it’s worth the money or if anything is slightly wrong with it.
Good luck with the search

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by brandrea

i recently joined moda ( thanks tom btw :agree).

It pretty interesting to look at the prices compared to say a c24 (which we all know prices things at the aspirational level

stalker…we knew it was you…lol Couldn’t agree more, huge difference. Just makes you wonder how many pieces are swapped between greys

[1William]

I am sure there are more factors other than price that you are looking at. When I start looking for watches that I can not get through my AD I try to find out what the going price is from our Trusted Sellers, eBay, Chrono24. The difficult part for some is comparing similar models based on age, condition, completeness of a set, etc. I also only buy expensive watches, more than a few thousand dollars, from the U.S. market. With that information I get on the phone with sellers and have a discussion about the watch and any details. If I am at a point where I want to make an offer I typically ask what the best price is on that watch. You will be surprised, on some watches, how much they will come down. I do not offer a price and then have them accept it and not buy the watch. This is a way to lose credibility and a willingness for dealers to sell to you at best prices. No tire kickers. Everyone likes to think they got a good deal, and sometimes you do. But most times I am looking for a fair deal that I can live with. Don't overanalyze this, get the information, make the calls and decide. Good luck and I hope to see an incoming post soon.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

stalker…we knew it was you…lol Couldn’t agree more, huge difference. Just makes you wonder how many pieces are swapped between greys

What strikes me are the number of watches trading each day. It’s an interesting platform but a little hard to get used to for an old timer like me


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[GrailTime]

Originally Posted by ryangambrill

Gmt - 126710blro

About $19k to $20k slightly used on jubilee, given the premium for jubilee and the fact they came out more recently.

A few thousand less on oyster, Depending on age and condition.

Don’t go paying more than $20k.

Message me if you need help sourcing.

[ryangambrill]

Originally Posted by GrailTime

About $19k to $20k slightly used on jubilee, given the premium for jubilee and the fact they came out more recently.

A few thousand less on oyster, Depending on age and condition.

Don’t go paying more than $20k.

Message me if you need help sourcing.

Thanks!

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I recently joined Moda ( thanks Tom BTW :agree).

It pretty interesting to look at the prices compared to say a C24 (which we all know prices things at the aspirational level

I find the dealer prices on there still high, with little remaining margin.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

I find the dealer prices on there still high, with little remaining margin.

I guess it depends on the reference … I found that the prices on moda were significantly better than some of the other secondary sellers.

[worldofoyster]

find a price that you are comfortable with and don't look back.

[m j b]

I don't understand, Ryan, you already have a GMT!

I have only bought grey when it's less than MSRP (yes, I've been doing this that long!) but even then, we go through the same process. For me, it's just looking at all of the sellers and what they're asking to develop my own average and median, and then try to find something on the low end of that range.

Natch BNIB is going to take a premium over LNIB or just plain used, so it's also a matter of how much "patina" you can stomach.

[ryangambrill]

Originally Posted by m j b

I don't understand, Ryan, you already have a GMT!

I have only bought grey when it's less than MSRP (yes, I've been doing this that long!) but even then, we go through the same process. For me, it's just looking at all of the sellers and what they're asking to develop my own average and median, and then try to find something on the low end of that range.

Natch BNIB is going to take a premium over LNIB or just plain used, so it's also a matter of how much "patina" you can stomach.

I truly love my Tudor GMT. Currently my most often daily wear. Had it now for 2.5 years. It was my first GMT. Over time I have grown to love the complication as it also fits my personality and lifestyle (travel). The Tudor GMT purchase was not "settling" as can be the situation for some. I have a big anniversary this year, conquered some REALLY challenging stuff the past 12 months, and ended up a really good spot. Adding a significant piece to the collection "feels right".

I too have been wearing these little mechanical wonders on my wrist for a long time. I purchased my first, Submariner, used almost 30 years ago. Those were the good old days. Most pieces were available without a wait (except Daytona) from an AD. The grey market was so much better. None of the influencer flexing.

I am in touch with my AD for a couple pieces. One of them being a GMT. The odds that I get a call for the Pepsi are almost 0%. From everything that I hear/read, they are in short supply and only going to the best of clients. That means that if I receive a call, it will be for Black/Blue GMT. Even then, it could be a long long time.

That in turn is opening up my possibility of buying on the grey market. The Black/Blue with some use appears to be in the $15k range. Pepsi on Jubilee, in the $19k-$20k.

It appears that I am approaching one of two paths:
- Wait for a call for the GMT (most likely Black/Blue) at a price of $11.5k
or
- Go grey. $15k Black Blue (oyster), $16k Black Blue Jubilee, or $19k-$20k Pepsi on Jubilee.

If I go grey, and already going to spend $15k-$16k on black blue, why not just go big and put a few extra $k and get the Pepsi?

Also, I don't buy into the "watches are investments" mantra. If I were to get one new from AD, I would be ripping those stickers off and sizing at the store. Wear it daily. Nor do I flip. Ex. I have had my Yachtmaster for almost 20+ years and my DayDate much longer than that. My pieces bring me joy. One day they can go to my boys.

[Guppydriver]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Join Moda Watch Club group on Facebook. They also have an under 10K group. I have no skin in their game at all. Never sold a watch there. But it is a very useful tool for seeing what pieces are actually SELLING for at any given time.

Ugh..

Sometimes I feel strong armed into joining FB. Whether to get a coupon or even get maintenance advice for my boat. I just don't on social media (although I was an early user of Instgram to post pics and now use to look at watch photos)

I've heard all these crazy good things about the MODA pricing, but wish there was an alternative to see pricing without joining.

I guess I'm a Luddite at heart.

[hutch300]

I have zero desire in anything moda or facebook. I like to work with dealers I trust and have simple access to. I refuse to join their book of faces.

[ryangambrill]

Originally Posted by hutch300

I have zero desire in anything moda or facebook. I like to work with dealers I trust and have simple access to. I refuse to join their book of faces.

Agreed Re: FB

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by ryangambrill

Hello All -

I am investigating going grey for my next piece. It one of the more difficult pieces to obtain from an AD and I know I don't have enough spend history.

I review the classifieds on RF daily for prices. Also take a look at the major grey dealers online. It is not uncommon for me to see a range of 10%-20% from the highest to lowest price for same model. In many instances I see a variance of 25% between reputable sellers here on RF and some of the major grey dealers (even some grey dealers that also sell on here). I have been disregarding posts in classifieds from sellers with little to no history.

How do you all benchmark prices in order to determine the deal in front of you?

To be clear, I am not looking for a "deal". Just want the piece at a fair market price.

Thanks!

A watch just like a car, house, etc is only 'worth' what someone is willing to pay for it. Period.

[Duke10]

Originally Posted by gates

You can analyze this to death - find a seller your comfortable with that has the piece youre looking for in the condition you want the piece to be in - find 2 or 3 that meet those criteria, see who has the low price and make your purchase - easy peasy..

Bingo
I can tell you from experience I have had a couple of so so dealings on Moda. Mainly, what some think is mint/excellent condition didn’t meet my expectations. Mint should mean like brand new. Not always what you get.
On the other hand I just had a wonderful experience with Briboxer on TRF.


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[Duke10]

Originally Posted by Guppydriver

Ugh..

Sometimes I feel strong armed into joining FB. Whether to get a coupon or even get maintenance advice for my boat. I just don't on social media (although I was an early user of Instgram to post pics and now use to look at watch photos)

I've heard all these crazy good things about the MODA pricing, but wish there was an alternative to see pricing without joining.

I guess I'm a Luddite at heart.

Moda is not worth having social media imo. I had it and deleted. Haven’t missed it a bit!


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[GVAZQUEZ]

OP I think you should work it with your local AD. Shouldn’t be to bad plus that’s too much time researching etc… just wait it out it takes time but in the long run it’s very worth it. Unless you are a one and done with the BLRO then go grey (I doubt it though).. good luck


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[gmorat]

If the deal is too good to be true......ask me how I know!