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12 December 2017, 01:27 AM | #1 |
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Publicly-traded Cannabis Industry Companies
Several people have PM’d me asking to make this topic a stand-alone thread instead of embedded in recent Rolex vs BitCoin thread...so without further ado, here it is, discuss amongst yourselves. There are an awful lot of Daytonas to be made investing in the exploding Global Cannabis Industry.
If you want to speculate in an area with explosive growth potential and with solid financials, look at one of the top three publicly-traded Canadian Cannabis companies: Aphria Inc, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis (each with existing market values between $1.5-2.5 Billion). Their stock prices have already tripled this year, and will likely do the same in 2018 when Recreational Adult-Use Cannabis is finally launched in Canada before Summer 2018. They are already the largest Medical Cannabis companies in the world and have even begun shipping products into Germany, Italy, Australia, Argentina, Uraguay, Mexico, and many other countries legalizing marijuana nearly every month. The U.S. is woefully behind the curve on Cannabis, and that gives Canadian companies like Aphria Inc. a huge first-mover advantage in establishing key supplier/client/customer relationships and developing recognizable brands. Constellation Brands (maker of Corona, Svedka Vodka, Kim Crawford Wine) has already made a $200MM investment (with warrants to purchase another $200MM) in Canopy Growth to produce Cannabis beverages. Look for other multinationals from the beverage, tobacco, and candy industries to make additional large strategic investments or outright acquisitions in the aforementioned three companies. Constellation brands (maker of Corona, Modelo, Svedka Vodka, Kim Crawford Wines, etc.) was the first multinational to make a major investment ($200MM with warrants to increase to $400MM) in a competitor (Canopy Growth), but that is just the starting point as other major beverage/tobacco/food/candy industry multinationals will follow suit on picking off the top Cannabis Cos with large footprints. Constellation Brands is already up 40% on their investment in about 6 weeks, and they haven’t even started collaborating yet. Once they do, the potential is outstanding. The same is in store for Aphria Inc. and Aurora Cannabis too. The whole Cannabis and Industrial Hemp industry is expected to be THE fastest growing industry over the next 5-10 years. Personally, I’ve already made a lot of money with several Cannabis companies since April, and still have very significant exposure via Aphria Inc. shares (APHQF - OTC). 2018 is going to be an interesting ride for both...publicly-traded Cannabis companies and BitCoin...although, I expect them to travel trade in completely opposite directions, and because of that, I prefer to place my money on the side with actual fundamentals and the protection of government regulation. What say you? |
12 December 2017, 01:49 AM | #2 |
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All three (Aphria Inc, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis) are going to do well, but of those listed, I think the best value right here is Aphria Inc. It is the lowest cost provider in the industry and is already on the way to increasing their total production facility’s capacity to 1,000,000 square feet of indoor greenhouse space that will capable of producing about 100,000 Kg of product/year by mid-2019. They already have 100,000 sq ft operating, and have already funded construction (underway) of the additional 900,000 sq ft of greenhouse space.
Just to emphasize the scope of that: — 1,000,000 sq ft of greenhouse space is about 25 indoor acres of Cannabis!!! — They would have 3-4 harvests/year — They expect to produce 100,000Kg = 220,000 Lbs (110 tons)/year. — 100,000Kg = 100,000,000 Grams x $8/Gram = $800,000,000+ Revenue — Aphria’s all-in cost/Gram = $1.61 = $640MM .... A shit load of Net Income. — $640MM/126MM Shares Outstanding = Approx. $4.75 EPS. — This week, Aphria Inc. just signed an exclusive on-line MMJ distribution deal through the largest Pharmacy chain in Canada (1,300 stores). — Medical Marijuana is already federally legal in Canada, but Adult-use Recreational will commence on or before July 1st 2018. The stock currently trades at approximately $10.47/share. If you put a (very conservative considering the staggering growth rate) 20x P/E multiple on that anticipated EPS you are looking at a target price of $80-90/share. It has doubled already since June 2017 and will likely trade up even further, ahead of Adult-use Recreational Use on July 1, 2018. Here is a chart for Aphria’s stock performance over the past 3 months (shown in Canadian dollars): |
12 December 2017, 02:02 AM | #3 |
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For some who prefer the ETF route, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index (HMMJ).
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12 December 2017, 02:46 AM | #4 | |
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Going that route may only cap your potential upside greatly without offering any real protection on the downside as the better stocks (Aphria, Canopy, Aurora, MedReleaf) all tend to trade in sympathy with one another even on the downside, whereas the really crappy companies included in the index don’t participate on the upside. If the ETF was the better alternative, I would have gone that route instead of stock picking. The top 4 cannabis stocks are up multiples higher vs HMMJ. |
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12 December 2017, 02:55 AM | #5 |
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TOP HOLDINGS For the HMMJ ETF
AS AT DECEMBER 8, 2017 Security Name Weight AURORA CANNABIS INC . 14.72% APHRIA INC . 12.91% CANOPY GROWTH CORP . 12.05% MEDRELEAF CORP . 7.08% GW PHARMACEUTICALS PLC . 6.94% SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO CO/THE . 6.74% CRONOS GROUP INC . 4.68% CANNIMED THERAPEUTICS INC . 4.11% INSYS THERAPEUTICS INC . 3.72% ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC . 3.31% Holdings are subject to change. Download full prior business day holdings |
12 December 2017, 03:17 AM | #6 |
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Take a look into a company called Monsanto, they have been going around trying to buy up as many seed banks, nutrient companies, lighting companies , anything that has to do with cultivation.
Such a power house that none other than pharmaceutical company “Bayer” think we’ve heard of them before right? Offered them 66 billion to buy them out and they said yuppp! Sounds good to us! So now the cultivation industry is owned by giant pharmaceutical.....mindblowing huh? Scott’s has a lot of steam in the game and a great relationship with Monsanto so that will prob be a merge that happens someday when Bayer says ya let’s just buy Scott’s and all the cannabis company’s they own. |
12 December 2017, 04:09 AM | #7 | |
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However, you are correct that large multinationals will make significant strategic investments in Cannabis. The companies that provide supplies will get the nice bump but the really money will be in the companies that “touch the seed” such as the top 4 highlighted above. Alcohol Beverage Cos and Tobacco companies are the obvious acquirers, but confection and pharmaceutical companies also could be major investors in the space too. More and more countries around the world and states in the U.S. are legalizing Cannabis. VT will legalize Recreational too via their Legislature in January according to the VT Speaker of the House. Next year, NJ is also likely push for legalization. One domino after another will continue to fall until it is legal in every U.S. state, and then the Federal government will re-schedule it to sonething other than Schedule 1. In a nutshell, it is the most promising industry to invest in over the next 3-5 years. I’ve put my money where my mouth is, and have made mid-six figures already. That’s just the beginning! |
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12 December 2017, 04:24 AM | #8 |
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I am in the Cannabis financials. It's completely exploded in this state and the money is pouring into the stores. And on pharmacy, Cannabinol is showing great promise for pain relief with rarely no felling of under the influence or any high like feelings. Unlike opioids which we all know is causing deaths and horrible addictions and ruining lives.
Hoping the Feds stay out of it or open up the banking sustem to except the small business owners massive cash deposits. They can be a big help or destroy the industry. And ancillary businesses are an important part of overall survival. Florida's next I hope for recreational |
12 December 2017, 04:41 AM | #9 | |
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https://www.newcannabisventures.com/...tober-2017.pdf With Aphria, you get participation in both Canada and the U.S....along with other countries. |
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12 December 2017, 05:16 AM | #10 | |
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12 December 2017, 05:23 AM | #11 |
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The real money is in retail. I’ve been in the cannabis industry as a full time job for the past 11 years and I’ve seen companies like those giant weed farms mentioned above come n go. I don’t think it will be around in 10 yrs from now. People don’t want commercial grade commercial packed cannabis, it’s trash. The individual farms that are turning out the top notch products that carry individual cultivation licenses that grow package and retail their own product are gonna run to the moon. I’m already seeeing it.
Member “VAPE” they had a CNBC special and it drives there stock up to like 40 bucks from pennies when they were first on the scene to make hash oil disposables.they thrived... But then times changed people got picky... realized the oil they were packing was complete trash and a giaaaant company went bust in a matter of months and trades for 7 cents a share now. That’s what’s gonna happen with alpha farms n all those we grow 10m sq ft of cannabis companies. Days of commercial outdoor cannabis are numbered nobody wants it or the product derived from it because it’s garbage. And with legalization and the ability for these boutique like cannabis growers to now grow package and retail and ability to open up more n more Mom n pop shops will press those big farms that get publicly traded. Think the ones to look out for are the Scotts n the Monsanto’s of the industry...the people that sell the products to grow the products that everybody wants...that biz will never die. |
12 December 2017, 05:43 AM | #12 |
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Just bought about 500 shares of Aphria.
Let’s see how this unfolds.
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12 December 2017, 06:26 AM | #13 |
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12 December 2017, 06:32 AM | #14 |
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Maybe the rules are different for Private Equity guys and it's industry, but I can tell you from the Wall Street side of the business, i.e. Private Wealth management and or Financial Advisors, it is not permitted either by firms or FINRA to tout stocks or even recommend them on forums as the advisor really has no way of knowing risk tolerances, investment goals, horizons, etc.
of the various members. I've been working on the private client side of Wall St. since 1984 and know the regs. These ideas are coming across as recommendations that would not pass at a broker/dealer firm. Caveat emptor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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12 December 2017, 06:34 AM | #15 | |
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The bigger picture is that scale drives down cost of production, lends itself to consistency, provides necessary capital to absorb smaller craft players, and expand into international markets. Ultimately, large multinationals will pursue large scale producers/processors/retailers, not lots of cats and dog craft producers. Think big, not small when looking at the industry. It is so much bigger than a single retailer. |
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12 December 2017, 06:39 AM | #16 |
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I like this thread a lot. It’s interesting to see different views from different sides ...financial ...agricultural...retail. I’m not a financial firm or really into stocks so that part of it is meh to me but I do however find the moves these companies are making to come with the times very i tersting reading material to what’s been contributed.
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12 December 2017, 06:47 AM | #17 |
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Banking needs to be resolved at the federal level -- once that is done then the larger companies will crush the little guys. Taking a wait and see in Canada.
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12 December 2017, 07:28 AM | #18 |
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Smaller operators squeezed for money- whoa that couldn’t be any more far from the truth. Banks don’t give loans on marijuana business. Every shop...dispensary... retail farm... is the owners bread n butter or money raised sitting in cash accounts. To open a dispensary in any state you have to put up minimums that ain’t cheap. Here in mass the average bankroll is 1-3million in order to get the department of health to even look at it so we can just throw that right out the window. You can’t get in the business without already having cash or getting a backer.
Next shift towards edibles? Couldn’t be any further from where cannabis is going. Premium flower and premium cartridge and concentrates are what people want. Fresh froZEN, live terpenes, bho and strains...strains on strains on strains of new carefully crafted and refined genetics.....nobody cares what strains in edibles...by law you have to care. If you tell a patient they are getting a 100mg edible dose they better get that...if it’s an indica they better feel the effects of indica or you’re not gonna sell any more to that customer. Edibles make up less than 20% of the dispensary overall sales. Flowers, concentrates, and Pens are the $$. Will edibles always clear the shelf yes but they arnt in anyway a power house in sales. I’ll be honest man...nobody’s buying anything commercial, people wanna know strain history, they want proper testing, they want gas strains of cannabis. The days of nobody cares what something smoked smells or tastes like are over. You couldnt drop off anything any of the big 4 above companies sell in It wouldn’t sell here in Ma or Vegas or California or Maine or Vermont or Michigan... they would laugh in your face. Look at what’s going on in Colorado...all your huge outdoor farm Operations are closing up shop to boutique multi light lab like indoor grows because that boo boo pre packaged outdoor does not sell. Prices in Colorado...all time low...Washington state too..garbage garbage cannabis up there.. prices in states like Cali and Nevada Oregon and here in Ma all time highs and the product stays moving and very very good. I think you really need to be in the cannabis industry and know who the major players are and what the trends are to really be able to even gamble on the stocks. I’m not seeing that from your above posts. Nobody is Persuing large scale producers because large scale producers don’t grow good product. It’s the era of weedmaps and reviews and lab results and really a geeky time to be around cannabis. One dry batch and you can bankrupt a shop...customer tastes a lil residual in a pen and complains you might not sell a pen in days. I’m telling you I live these ups and downs and have seen it first hand. |
12 December 2017, 07:35 AM | #19 | |
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Large scale growing is good in any industry but cannabis, if you can’t touch feel smell talk to and have control over every seed or clone you plant. You arnt gonna make money in today’s current cannabis trends. Anybody can grow cannabis it’s not hard... very very few can grow good cannabis and that is what the 100% demand is for. Or let’s look at it this way... maybe your cannabis super farm like the ones you guys are playing in the stocks ...says hey let’s use our giant money and shrink our fields to grow rooms....and they to follow the trend of smaller scale growing in a larger level and all u guys get stupid rich....another way to look at it but I think the giant fields days r over. |
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12 December 2017, 07:56 AM | #20 | |
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12 December 2017, 08:05 AM | #21 | |
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12 December 2017, 08:06 AM | #22 | |
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The reality is, the large players will have capacity, efficiency, and capital to grow larger and roll-up smaller craft producers. The larger producers will put pricing pressure on the smaller operations, and ultimately absorb them. When the Philip Morris and Ab InBev of the world come calling they are going to target scale, not artisan growers at first. Eventually, they will care about craft growers, like they did with craft brewers. History will repeat itself. |
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12 December 2017, 08:10 AM | #23 |
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Publicly-traded Cannabis Industry Companies
...delete.
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12 December 2017, 10:32 AM | #24 | |
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Somehow you are assuming MMJ growers are not into quality. Nothing could be further from the truth. They operate near pharmaceutical quality operations that are held to higher standards of purity than smaller artisanal recreational growers. You are also assuming that they are growing outdoors like the craft growers in Humboldt County, but that is actually not accurate. Their greenhouse and indoor grow facilities are extremely sophisticated and capable of segregated harvests via multiple grow rooms...for obvious reasons. It just happens to be that they have the funded capital to expanded more rapidly than the smaller craft growers you were describing. At the end of the day, there will be multiple segments within each product category. As an an investor, I am most concerned about a companies ability to scale as quickly as posdible while simultaneously reducing cost of production via efficiencies. Reducing cost is not synonymous with cutting corners nor compromising product quality...actually, quite the opposite. They are more stringent, better organized, more concerned about quality, consistency of dosing, etc...due to their focus surrounding being a medical product provider. Only time will tell which approach wins, but so far, over a billion dollars of capital has been raised by the top 4 Canadian companies, and they are best positioned to meet the demand once Health Canada flips the recreational switch on or before July 1, 2018. The one thing we can all agree on is that Cannabis is a fast growing industry gaining increasing global acceptance by the day. Hope the trend continues. |
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12 December 2017, 11:35 AM | #25 | |
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As a former LEO I have been a looooooong time proponent for the legalization and taxation of cannabis. Prohibition is a complete failure. Time to put my money where my mouth is. |
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12 December 2017, 12:54 PM | #26 |
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12 December 2017, 02:29 PM | #27 |
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I support the smaller 'boutique growers' + it will now be legal to 'grow your own' (up to a certain amount) where both medical/recreational usage is allowed.
The mass commercialization/industrialization/investment speculation/taxation of cannabis seems kind of tacky and IMO reeks of avarice. Perhaps it's another new 'gold rush'. Watch the advertising world grab hold of this lucrative cash cow with their contrived portrayals of pot smokers and the various idyllic lifestyles associated with the pastime. Viagra and Cialis were only the beginning. |
12 December 2017, 03:02 PM | #28 |
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Great thread OP!
I also just bought a small position (500 shares) into Aphria. I am more of an “average up” kind of a guy and prefer to do creeping purchases. I like to invest in longer term bets and my portfolio is largely tech names (mainstream ones - nothing exotic), Asian names and funds, and some luxury names like Richemont and LVMH (cos I just love watches!) I can see the impact this change in social and legal acceptance of cannabis and the longer term potential. Thanks for this thread. |
13 December 2017, 02:37 AM | #29 |
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And the rise continues...
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13 December 2017, 03:39 AM | #30 |
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And nobody questions the legalization of this evil drug,
its not the stuff that john, paul, George, and ringo puffed in the 60s, I find it hard to believe that the industry behind this vile poison has slowly but surely been allowed to chip away all the barriers and controls that once were, the police gave up on it in the uk years ago, it took 50 odd years, but they won in the end. sickening. |
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