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Bearxj86 · 6 June 2019, 01:31 AM

Was listening to a youtube rant by Federico from Delray about nautilus prices in particular the 5711 blue. He started by saying there are at least 100k out there and ended the video by saying "hundreds of thousands".

Not really sure how many 5711s but I would have thought since its a 2006 piece so its been produced for about 13 years. Let's say 5000 a year so estimate of around 65k out there? I think its a bit less since I heard Patek steel is only 20% of their 50,000 volume and that is all steel watches. I think it's more like 3000 a year...which would put volume at 40k...

Either way, started thinking about number of Hulks and Batmen out there versus Nautilus or Aquanauts - what do you think the ratio is?

25:1?

T3F · 6 June 2019, 01:49 AM

I also heard that sport models are 20% of Patek's production but that annual production was closer to 60,000, meaning about 12,000 sport models/year. Pick your exact number, but no more than a few thousand of each reference (less than that if you count different dials as different references) is being produced per year. I'm guessing that 10,000+ of each the 116610LV and BLNR were/are produced per year and that the ratio is ~10:1.

Peter Shore · 6 June 2019, 01:51 AM

20% are SS which includes Twenty Four which they really churn out. An average dealer gets at least 3 of the 5711 each year

Sam Philip · 6 June 2019, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Was listening to a youtube rant by Federico from Delray about nautilus prices in particular the 5711 blue. He started by saying there are at least 100k out there and ended the video by saying "hundreds of thousands".

Not really sure how many 5711s but I would have thought since its a 2006 piece so its been produced for about 13 years. Let's say 5000 a year so estimate of around 65k out there? I think its a bit less since I heard Patek steel is only 20% of their 50,000 volume and that is all steel watches. I think it's more like 3000 a year...which would put volume at 40k...

Either way, started thinking about number of Hulks and Batmen out there versus Nautilus or Aquanauts - what do you think the ratio is?

25:1?

In 2017 Mstanga estimated that 4000 - 5000 units of 5712/1A had been produced.

Sam Philip · 6 June 2019, 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Shore

20% are SS which includes Twenty Four which they really churn out. An average dealer gets at least 3 of the 5711 each year

I agree these days an average AD gets 3 5711 blue each year but I don't think they get 3 5711 whites each year. I was told they always get less white dial watches than blue dial ones.

Bearxj86 · 6 June 2019, 02:51 AM

422 known ADs on Patek website.

422 x 3 = 1266 a year
1266 x 13 years = 16,458

Even if the number is doubled, it would be 30k total max for 5711 blue.

Rushne · 6 June 2019, 03:00 AM

I watched that same video and also thought “wait a minute. I don’t think those numbers are right at all”
Glad I’m not the only one :)

Sam Philip · 6 June 2019, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearxj86

422 known ADs on Patek website.

422 x 3 = 1266 a year
1266 x 13 years = 16,458

Even if the number is doubled, it would be 30k total max for 5711 blue.

If Mstanga had estimated there were only 4000 - 5000 pieces of 5712/1A produced until 2017 I don't think the 5711 numbers would differ greatly from 5712/1A numbers.

SL BRABUS · 6 June 2019, 04:28 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmZ11fTW2wM

Reading the youtube comments it seems like a lot of people agree with him, that the 5711 is a piece of crap....

Peter Shore · 6 June 2019, 04:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

I agree these days an average AD gets 3 5711 blue each year but I don't think they get 3 5711 whites each year. I was told they always get less white dial watches than blue dial ones.

generally 1 white a year

Sam Philip · 6 June 2019, 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Shore

generally 1 white a year

1 white per year sounds right. However I know of couple ADs didn't get a white this year.

Drkd · 6 June 2019, 05:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

1 white per year sounds right. However I know of couple ADs didn't get a white this year.

some are only getting 1 blue per year i heard

but hey what do we know

Bearxj86 · 6 June 2019, 05:03 AM

The 5711 is probably the most elegant sports watch I have, and I have Daytonas, GMTs, Submariners, Royal Oaks ;/

JR16 · 6 June 2019, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearxj86

422 known ADs on Patek website.

422 x 3 = 1266 a year
1266 x 13 years = 16,458

Even if the number is doubled, it would be 30k total max for 5711 blue.

I agree w your math . The video is laughable .

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

RussW · 6 June 2019, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

If Mstanga had estimated there were only 4000 - 5000 pieces of 5712/1A produced until 2017 I don't think the 5711 numbers would differ greatly from 5712/1A numbers.

Did he give any rationale for those numbers? They seem very low, but Mstanga is a very credible source.

Sam Philip · 6 June 2019, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RussW

Did he give any rationale for those numbers? They seem very low, but Mstanga is a very credible source.

He had not given any rationale for those numbers apart from saying his assumption was based on statistical calculations on a large amount of data.

The production numbers seem very low to me as well but as you mentioned he is a very credible source and a specialist in Nautilus.

GB-man · 6 June 2019, 03:45 PM

I don’t know how anyone could listen to that guy. His information seems more directed to people who know f all about watches.

bruinmd · 6 June 2019, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t know how anyone could listen to that guy. His information seems more directed to people who know f all about watches.

This.

Listening to him is like nails on a chalkboard.

WatchLurv · 6 June 2019, 05:19 PM

Some guys didnt even get a 5990 last year. And the shop I deal with, will only get ONE 5711/1R this year and that goes on my wrist.

I remember back in 2015-2016 that shops would get approximately 2-3 models of each. It's only been in recent years that they've received a lot less. Same method that Rolex has applied to their supply routes.

Fat_ninja · 6 June 2019, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Some guys didnt even get a 5990 last year. And the shop I deal with, will only get ONE 5711/1R this year and that goes on my wrist.

I remember back in 2015-2016 that shops would get approximately 2-3 models of each. It's only been in recent years that they've received a lot less. Same method that Rolex has applied to their supply routes.

U and i are still waiting for this last watch...it’s upsetting me. Only saving grace I might get a 5168 later this year as well.

Peter Shore · 6 June 2019, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Some guys didnt even get a 5990 last year. And the shop I deal with, will only get ONE 5711/1R this year and that goes on my wrist.

I remember back in 2015-2016 that shops would get approximately 2-3 models of each. It's only been in recent years that they've received a lot less. Same method that Rolex has applied to their supply routes.

I just picked up Pepsi Nd Batman and tbey kept my warranty cards...I remember when patek did this on 5131 in UK and everyone was up in arms

brandrea · 6 June 2019, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t know how anyone could listen to that guy. His information seems more directed to people who know f all about watches.

I agree, most of these experts are grating to me

Oddly, I do enjoy listening to Tim Mosso as he has encyclopedic knowledge when it comes to movements from all brands. I also get a kick out of the sunglasses

Keldw · 6 June 2019, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t know how anyone could listen to that guy. His information seems more directed to people who know f all about watches.

This, absolutely!

jon_jon · 7 June 2019, 03:59 AM

Some of the youtube watch guys are entertaining to watch, but I wouldn't believe everything they say. They make more money with increased viewership and may say outlandish things just to attract viewers, similar to blogs with their click-bait.

I suspect Patek makes about 1000-2000 5711/1A's a year. Back during the recession, they made less and over the past 5 years more.

Sam Philip · 7 June 2019, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Shore

I just picked up Pepsi Nd Batman and tbey kept my warranty cards...I remember when patek did this on 5131 in UK and everyone was up in arms

I thought most people were ok about it but I vividly recall an ex-member being very upset about it.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...highlight=5131

WatchLurv · 7 June 2019, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Shore

I just picked up Pepsi Nd Batman and tbey kept my warranty cards...I remember when patek did this on 5131 in UK and everyone was up in arms

UK is the only geo they practice this to my knowledge. It's not a mandatory guideline - It's recommended guideline - however, the other ADs are smart:
1. They don't want to keep track and logistics about it
2. They don't want to bear the responsibility of a lost warranty card

RE "2": 'Sorry sir, but we lost it. Oh and by the way...We cant replace it. Sorry for your inconvenience'.

I do hope warranty cards get lost in the post. Perhaps they'll stop this nonsense.

Sam Philip · 7 June 2019, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

UK is the only geo they practice this to my knowledge. It's not a mandatory guideline - It's recommended guideline - however, the other ADs are smart:
1. They don't want to keep track and logistics about it
2. They don't want to bear the responsibility of a lost warranty card

RE "2": 'Sorry sir, but we lost it. Oh and by the way...We cant replace it. Sorry for your inconvenience'.

I do hope warranty cards get lost in the post. Perhaps they'll stop this nonsense.

ADs can replace warranty cards.

pam66 · 7 June 2019, 05:19 PM

last week in the Paris PP salon i was told 1500 5712A per year and about 1000 5711A blue annually.
no idea how accurate the info is.

Peter Shore · 7 June 2019, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pam66

last week in the Paris PP salon i was told 1500 5712A per year and about 1000 5711A blue annually.
no idea how accurate the info is.

All Salons are experts in generating the hype...London its standard on all models to hear "it's a 5 year waiting list"!!! Doesnt matter if it's a 5205 or 5231....then about 4 months later u get a call.......

Token74 · 7 June 2019, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SL BRABUS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmZ11fTW2wM

Reading the youtube comments it seems like a lot of people agree with him, that the 5711 is a piece of crap....

Amazing that the harder watches are to get, the more people there are that don’t like them! Most curious!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

6 June 2019, 01:31 AM	#1
Bearxj86 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Los Angeles Watch: 3970 Posts: 3,813	Production numbers Patek Sports versus Rolex Hulk/GMTs Was listening to a youtube rant by Federico from Delray about nautilus prices in particular the 5711 blue. He started by saying there are at least 100k out there and ended the video by saying "hundreds of thousands". Not really sure how many 5711s but I would have thought since its a 2006 piece so its been produced for about 13 years. Let's say 5000 a year so estimate of around 65k out there? I think its a bit less since I heard Patek steel is only 20% of their 50,000 volume and that is all steel watches. I think it's more like 3000 a year...which would put volume at 40k... Either way, started thinking about number of Hulks and Batmen out there versus Nautilus or Aquanauts - what do you think the ratio is? 25:1?

6 June 2019, 01:49 AM	#2
T3F "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: USA Posts: 457	I also heard that sport models are 20% of Patek's production but that annual production was closer to 60,000, meaning about 12,000 sport models/year. Pick your exact number, but no more than a few thousand of each reference (less than that if you count different dials as different references) is being produced per year. I'm guessing that 10,000+ of each the 116610LV and BLNR were/are produced per year and that the ratio is ~10:1. __________________ Instagram: @watchadmiral

6 June 2019, 03:00 AM	#7
Rushne 2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Watch: White 116500LN Posts: 864	I watched that same video and also thought “wait a minute. I don’t think those numbers are right at all” Glad I’m not the only one :) __________________ Omega: Seamaster Professional 300M 2220.80.00 Rolex: Daytona White Dial 116500LN Rolex: Sky-Dweller Blue Dial Jubilee 336934 Rolex: DateJust 36 Roman White Dial Oyster 126234 Rolex: OP 36 Celebration Dial 126000 Panerai: PAM 422 Patek Philippe: Aquanaut 5167A A. Lange & Söhne: 1815 Annual Calendar @mechanicaltom Stolen: IWC Portuguese 500107 Case number 3853222

6 June 2019, 04:28 AM	#9
SL BRABUS "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: U.S.A Watch: Only Rolex & Patek Posts: 3,353	https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmZ11fTW2wM Reading the youtube comments it seems like a lot of people agree with him, that the 5711 is a piece of crap.... __________________ Rolex Forum: Mainly Rolex & Benz pictures...!!! Click the above link to join the club...^^^... "SL BRABUS" aka BenzWorld Undercover Moderator

6 June 2019, 03:45 PM	#17
GB-man 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: USA Watch: addiction issues Posts: 37,002	I don’t know how anyone could listen to that guy. His information seems more directed to people who know f all about watches. __________________

6 June 2019, 01:51 AM	#3
Peter Shore Banned Join Date: May 2019 Location: Dubai Posts: 79	20% are SS which includes Twenty Four which they really churn out. An average dealer gets at least 3 of the 5711 each year

6 June 2019, 02:51 AM	#6
Bearxj86 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Los Angeles Watch: 3970 Posts: 3,813	422 known ADs on Patek website. 422 x 3 = 1266 a year 1266 x 13 years = 16,458 Even if the number is doubled, it would be 30k total max for 5711 blue.

6 June 2019, 05:03 AM	#13
Bearxj86 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Los Angeles Watch: 3970 Posts: 3,813	The 5711 is probably the most elegant sports watch I have, and I have Daytonas, GMTs, Submariners, Royal Oaks ;/

6 June 2019, 05:19 PM	#19
WatchLurv Banned Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: Moon Watch: Swiss Posts: 2,270	Some guys didnt even get a 5990 last year. And the shop I deal with, will only get ONE 5711/1R this year and that goes on my wrist. I remember back in 2015-2016 that shops would get approximately 2-3 models of each. It's only been in recent years that they've received a lot less. Same method that Rolex has applied to their supply routes.

7 June 2019, 03:59 AM	#24
jon_jon "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: USA Posts: 4,343	Some of the youtube watch guys are entertaining to watch, but I wouldn't believe everything they say. They make more money with increased viewership and may say outlandish things just to attract viewers, similar to blogs with their click-bait. I suspect Patek makes about 1000-2000 5711/1A's a year. Back during the recession, they made less and over the past 5 years more.

7 June 2019, 05:19 PM	#28
pam66 "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2017 Location: cambridge Posts: 2,268	last week in the Paris PP salon i was told 1500 5712A per year and about 1000 5711A blue annually. no idea how accurate the info is.

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