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Old 16 November 2023, 09:33 PM   #1
Rickynelson
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Icon20 A great philosophical question

I was just about to sleep and then it hit me, this is the
Equivalent of “ can god create a rock he can’t lift”

Lights a blunt meme : hear me out
Would Rolex CPO sell rolex watches below retail ?
Going back to the Cookie Monster or any YG sub etc , they
Are going for under retail at the moment , so what are your thoughts?
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Old 16 November 2023, 10:35 PM   #2
knighty88
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What's popular has (and always will be) cyclical - but to put it simply, There are less players in the PM space compared to SS models.

Additionally when the economy goes awry, those swimming in the PM pond are likely to be hoovering up other assets at discounted prices, not just Rolex.
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Old 17 November 2023, 12:13 AM   #3
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It's not a matter of if, but when
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Old 17 November 2023, 12:18 AM   #4
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At the moment I would think no. At some point if the used market moves below retail on certain models, the CPO program will be forced to price at the market price even if the prices are below retail.
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Old 17 November 2023, 12:34 AM   #5
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CPO is second hand, in any normal situation these are way below retail.
So yes, sure things will go back to the old days
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Old 17 November 2023, 12:42 AM   #6
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Eventually market will dictate that they do. Although they hold a lot of influence I don’t see their CPO program dictating the 2nd hand market prices.

Side thought. Rolex got into it at just about the worst possible time. They have to be more or less upside down on many of their offerings with where prices were when the program started to now. Not saying it will go away, Rolex can certainly weather it, but just a very shaky start financially I would imagine for sure.
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Old 17 November 2023, 01:03 AM   #7
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Gray/used dealers typically are willing to sell at a loss when cash is needed. We've heard many of them say that over the past year. They had 2 choices -- sit in inventory and not sell it and do NO business, or sell at a loss and use the resulting cash to get back in the market and start making money again. The latter is the only real option.

Rolex do NOT need the cash.

So I think that overall their behavior (pricing) will not necessarily track the overall gray/used market prices.
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Old 17 November 2023, 01:05 AM   #8
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A great philosophical question?
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Old 17 November 2023, 01:05 AM   #9
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Rolex just shelled out a 100 million dollars for more real-estate. They are very well invested and have tons of cash flow. We are only a small market of the watch world and they will always have customers who have no clue the grey market exists. So i don't see them lowering pricing anytime soon.
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Old 17 November 2023, 02:22 AM   #10
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it's all about supply and demand. If used watches are sitting around display cases too long, they have to lower the prices. They are not running a museum.
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Old 17 November 2023, 05:11 AM   #11
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It’s more about the impact and brand perception, everybody is all hyped over the fact you could see a new Daytona sitting at 20k and next to it there will be a used one for 40, but nobody thought about , what happens if this goes south. Rolex did invest a lot of money but selling your own product direct for a lower amount is not something you do at the front desk, grey dealers was the outlet for those “unwanted” pieces.
I am guessing the CPO would have only < than retail at the front .
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Old 17 November 2023, 08:56 PM   #12
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116900 Air King Rolex CPO price - $11,650. The goal must be to only attract desperados.

You could get this piece from David SW, BOBs, Hodninkee, etc. for $7500 to $9k, get it Rolex serviced and come out way ahead.
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Old 17 November 2023, 09:13 PM   #13
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Of course they will price below msrp. This happens at car dealers already - including high end dealerships. They have seen both sides of the coin in different markets and it works out fine.

Rolex manages brand stability and perception through undersupplying the new market - no signs that will change. They will also benefit from a) premiums to other grey pricing (this won’t disappear) and b) some models are near-certain to stay well above retail. Even in a downturn.

Also, as others noted, they are a money making machine and are exceptionally well positioned to navigate cycles.
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Old 17 November 2023, 10:10 PM   #14
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Go to 4,20 min, there is an interesting view on CPO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhXNpKTd4sA
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Old 17 November 2023, 10:35 PM   #15
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"Would Rolex CPO sell rolex watches below retail ?"

Depends on cost and AD's desired margin. Let's say an AD needs to make 20% margin on CPO, then it will sell Rolex watches below retain when it can buy them for 79% of retail price.
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Old 17 November 2023, 11:12 PM   #16
brandrea
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Can Rolex create a rock they can’t lift ?
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Old 17 November 2023, 11:28 PM   #17
MangoTree1
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So this is a great philosophical question?!
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Old 18 November 2023, 01:14 AM   #18
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Right now the CPO program is delusional. No sane person will pay more for a CPO watch, than a brand new one. When prices normalize, in the next year, or so, Rolex will maintain it’s CPO program, and most likely sell these pieces, for 10-15% above what they cost, on the secondary market. This premium will cover the servicing and 2 year warranty. The only philosophy involved, here, is marketing strategy, and God certainly doesn’t play into the scenario.

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Old 18 November 2023, 03:42 AM   #19
thenewguy2023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rickynelson View Post
...
Lights a blunt
...
Quote:
Originally Posted by alllexandru View Post
Go to 4,20 min,...
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