The Death of Waiting Lists...

[askdanny]

...has been greatly exaggerated!

It was a year ago that the news broke Rolex would invest 1 billion Swiss francs in a fifth manufacture, slated to open in 2029.

Rolex is also setting up temporary production facilities in Romont and Villaz-Saint-Pierre that will open as early as next year.

Still, I wrote a deeply researched article on why waiting lists are here to stay... which is wonderful news if you're a grey dealer.

Please let me know what you think: https://coron.et/new-long-reads/role...oduct-shortage

[rajurama]

I am able to source pm models without waiting at discounts as of today.

[Calatrava r]

Nothing for sale at ADs I visit and waiting lists are still months to years. Good news is many models in "like new" condition are available on the secondary market for MSRP or less immediately. As more and more customers acclimate to buying Rolex online these days, there may come a time when business is not so brisk at ADs due to all the folks they lost.

[Podmornica]

Zero sense to visit Rolex AD at this point.

1.) You will never get the most popular models like BLRO, BLNR or Daytona unless you have already spent hundreds of thousands of $$$

2.) Almost everything else, especially heavy hitters like the Daydate 36 or 40, Submariner in full gold, two tone datejusts ... are already sub MSRP and available immediately without listening to BS stories from the sale rep.

[APPRF]

Most Rolex models will be available with a reasonable waiting time in years to come. The only model that will still be hard will be the steel Daytona, and the limited editions or scarce production models if Rolex decides to imitate Omega. Rumer is the Le Mans may be one and maybe more similar to it in the future.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by rajurama

I am able to source pm models without waiting at discounts as of today.

Could you tell us what's the expected discount for the Daydate 36 or 40 in yellow gold and what country are you referring to?

[Yobber76]

This is weird, but after 3 years of being told by my AD that they had no SS sports watches available with all the standard diversionary tactics, I walked in a couple of months ago and asked the senior SA if he was ever going to sell me a Rolex again. We went back and forth discussing our history together. He had a newer SA sit down with me and put an order request into their system for a 126710 BLNR. About a month later I had one. As I was getting ready to pick it up, I asked if there was any chance of getting a VTNR. They took the info, and a few days later I got that too.

Don't know the reason, but it all came together.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Yobber76

This is weird, but after 3 years of being told by my AD that they had no SS sports watches available with all the standard diversionary tactics, I walked in a couple of months ago and asked the senior SA if he was ever going to sell me a Rolex again. We went back and forth discussing our history together. He had a newer SA sit down with me and put an order request into their system for a 126710 BLNR. About a month later I had one. As I was getting ready to pick it up, I asked if there was any chance of getting a VTNR. They took the info, and a few days later I got that too.

Don't know the reason, but it all came together.

Congrats, your post gives hope to many.

[jaydav2306]

I can't see Rolex SS being ever as widely available as say Tudor and I highly doubt Rolex would want that?

[jaydav2306]

"People want want what they can't have" if everyone could walk in and get a Daytona no one would want one

[amh]

New factory will be online in 2029? The waiting lists will exist at least until that time.

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by APPRF

Most Rolex models will be available with a reasonable waiting time in years to come. The only model that will still be hard will be the steel Daytona, and the limited editions or scarce production models if Rolex decides to imitate Omega. Rumer is the Le Mans may be one and maybe more similar to it in the future.

I highly disagree with this because I believe the scarcity of Rolex has a lot to do with the macro economy. Contrary to you I think we'll see a resurgence in inflation once banks star to lower rates and the fed starts to print money again, this will of course drive up demand for Rolex even more than the last few years to heights we've never seen.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by goldboy

I highly disagree with this because I believe the scarcity of Rolex has a lot to do with the macro economy. Contrary to you I think we'll see a resurgence in inflation once banks star to lower rates and the fed starts to print money again, this will of course drive up demand for Rolex even more than the last few years to heights we've never seen.

That’s only if they cut the rates too early. Let’s hope they know better than that. How much this would affects luxury watch market it’d be hard to tell. Asia and Middle East remain to be the largest markets. Here in US it’s safe to assume market will get softer after Christmas.

[Guppydriver]

There is some irony in that Rolex has created a monster that may eventually affect the AD's that smugly prospered by inflated gray prices during this 5 year surge in demand.

I don't necessarily mean us WUS's. The bottom line is that gray dealers have forged relationships with tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of casual buyers that would have never thought for a second to buy secondary. These buyers have been appreciated and treated as if their business merited earning and the trepidation that many associate with buying gray had been relegated to inconsequential.

When and if things balance, these thousands of customers will pick up their phone and make the simple call to their "friend in the business" when a need arises, possibly with the benefit of saving some money. Something they would have never done had inordinate wait lists never existed.

Am I saying the AD's won't be able to sell their watches? Of course not. What it will do is keep known affluent buyers out of their stores. The same stores that sell other watch brands and jewelry. How many times has your wife or s/o accompanied you to an AD? My wife has. While I talk shop with the watch rep, my wife hits the other displays cases and makes note of things she fancies. I've bought two gem stone rings she loved in the past few years purely based on her accompanying me to an AD.

TL/DR..
Forcing people to go gray who otherwise would have never may have residual long term affects to AD's.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Yobber76

This is weird, but after 3 years of being told by my AD that they had no SS sports watches available with all the standard diversionary tactics, I walked in a couple of months ago and asked the senior SA if he was ever going to sell me a Rolex again. We went back and forth discussing our history together. He had a newer SA sit down with me and put an order request into their system for a 126710 BLNR. About a month later I had one. As I was getting ready to pick it up, I asked if there was any chance of getting a VTNR. They took the info, and a few days later I got that too.

Don't know the reason, but it all came together.

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by askdanny

...has been greatly exaggerated!

It was a year ago that the news broke Rolex would invest 1 billion Swiss francs in a fifth manufacture, slated to open in 2029.

Rolex is also setting up temporary production facilities in Romont and Villaz-Saint-Pierre that will open as early as next year.

Still, I wrote a deeply researched article on why waiting lists are here to stay... which is wonderful news if you're a grey dealer.

Please let me know what you think: https://coron.et/new-long-reads/role...oduct-shortage

Nice article. Too much focus (the only counter point) on India as a growing population of increased demand of Rolex compared to rising supply with new production facilities.

An analysis comparing world wide discretionary income change would be a better argument for increased demand. And then account for inflation.

Naturally as the history of mankind has shown, with increasing technology people have more free time and wealth. Ie instead of washing clothes you put it into a clothes washer. So I expect as more countries increase in wealth, more people will have higher amounts of discretionary income for buying those things that are not “needed”, ie luxury goods.

I’m curious what the forecast actually says. Will there will be millions more people worldwide that will have $50k of discretionary income per year in the next 10 years?

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Guppydriver

There is some irony in that Rolex has created a monster that may eventually affect the AD's that smugly prospered by inflated gray prices during this 5 year surge in demand.

I don't necessarily mean us WUS's. The bottom line is that gray dealers have forged relationships with tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of casual buyers that would have never thought for a second to buy secondary. These buyers have been appreciated and treated as if their business merited earning and the trepidation that many associate with buying gray had been relegated to inconsequential.

When and if things balance, these thousands of customers will pick up their phone and make the simple call to their "friend in the business" when a need arises, possibly with the benefit of saving some money. Something they would have never done had inordinate wait lists never existed.

Am I saying the AD's won't be able to sell their watches? Of course not. What it will do is keep known affluent buyers out of their stores. The same stores that sell other watch brands and jewelry. How many times has your wife or s/o accompanied you to an AD? My wife has. While I talk shop with the watch rep, my wife hits the other displays cases and makes note of things she fancies. I've bought two gem stone rings she loved in the past few years purely based on her accompanying me to an AD.

TL/DR..
Forcing people to go gray who otherwise would have never may have residual long term affects to AD's.

One thing for sure AD behaviors have changed. Last year they wouldn’t even bother taking your info now they regularly text and follow up. Of course every market is different.

[Gearjockey]

Originally Posted by goldboy

I highly disagree with this because I believe the scarcity of Rolex has a lot to do with the macro economy. Contrary to you I think we'll see a resurgence in inflation once banks star to lower rates and the fed starts to print money again, this will of course drive up demand for Rolex even more than the last few years to heights we've never seen.

Where are you talking about? Inflation hasn’t decreased and they haven’t stopped printing money. US interest on debt is now $1T. There’s no way fed-print subsides.

[Fahoo Forays]

Originally Posted by jaydav2306

"People want want what they can't have" if everyone could walk in and get a Daytona no one would want one

That's an XX chromosome approach. Men (comfy ones) don't care who else has what.

[majidessa]

Waitng lists are certainly not as they used to be a year or two before, I'm aiming for a SS Daytona panda which I know this is a hard one; however, I have been a long time client & when I got my latest watch few days ago, my AD asked me what I might like next, I informed him.

He told me it is going to be a long wait which I already knew yet, he was not dismissal of the idea and told me to come back next year to put my name on the list which I will certainly do.

I have nothing to lose even if I have to wait a little longer as maybe the supply would slightly increase for the Daytona or the demand cools down a bit, whereby getting the watch from the grey market s not an option and won't be the same as buying it from the AD despite being a grail watch.

[Jasb]

I’m on a list for a no date sub at 2 ADs with no luck. The ones on the grey are still 13k for a new one. List is alive and well.

[lmcgbaj]

Originally Posted by Yobber76

This is weird, but after 3 years of being told by my AD that they had no SS sports watches available with all the standard diversionary tactics, I walked in a couple of months ago and asked the senior SA if he was ever going to sell me a Rolex again. We went back and forth discussing our history together. He had a newer SA sit down with me and put an order request into their system for a 126710 BLNR. About a month later I had one. As I was getting ready to pick it up, I asked if there was any chance of getting a VTNR. They took the info, and a few days later I got that too.

Don't know the reason, but it all came together.

If this becomes the norm, it's great news.

[Calatrava r]

That model is very tough to get from an AD. ADs tell me they get 1 Sub for every 7 Subdates. Maybe they will drop to MSRP soon on the used market. That would be nice.

[lmcgbaj]

Originally Posted by rajurama

I am able to source pm models without waiting at discounts as of today.

Where? Don't say Wakanda please.

[herefortheattachment]

There is a very large gray we all know the name of that massively overbought during the pandemic and is in the red on almost all of their inventory. It simply isn’t moving. Doubt the gray mkt will implode (they’re VC backed so they’ll be fine), but I hypothesize the gray market listings are artificially high right now because at least one enormously large dealer is refusing to swallow its pride and take the L. They will find sneaky ways to minimize the losses over the course of several years than risk damaging their brand.

As long as grays like that are alive, pre owned prices for Rolex will continue to exceed MSRP, the demand at retail will remain strong. (IMO, we dont see “fair market” values, we see “VC-propped” values.)

[4reRlxGuy]

I work with 1 AD primarily; and 2 others on occasion. Not much has changed in regards to supply of desirable pieces.

[BillA]

Hoping an AD I am working with will call me with a BLRO…..in my lifetime.

[Jb1264]

Rolex might ramping up production but I’ll be very surprised if SS GMT’s are readily available to a walk-in.
AD’s will still have to sell more of the other references

[londondude]

While certain watches have become more easily available, others are still very difficult to get. I’m waiting for a Sub no date, no indication of when it will come through. I think the price point of most SS is very affordable by many so demand is very strong. Don’t see this changing in the short term

[Michael1968]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Zero sense to visit Rolex AD at this point.

1.) You will never get the most popular models like BLRO, BLNR or Daytona unless you have already spent hundreds of thousands of $$$

2.) Almost everything else, especially heavy hitters like the Daydate 36 or 40, Submariner in full gold, two tone datejusts ... are already sub MSRP and available immediately without listening to BS stories from the sale rep.

Great point. Nothing to add