SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

Wow. The reason people are blindly panicking is because of posts like this. Steel Daytona at retail? Don’t be silly. What were those ‘hot models’ you were offered?

[DBlue2018]

Quite clearly Rolex are not immune

They will fall

People will need to sell

Businesses will fail around the world

People will lose jobs

Pilots have unpaid leave

Financial professionals will lose bonuses

When they need to force sell that’s when issues arrive

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

It's not really doom and gloom lol, just reality at the moment? Plus this is a fun prediction don't take it so seriously.

If the economy is not "halted" for you, then do you just consider it a minor set back?

Those whom are moaning are the unsuccessful ones - the 2 go hand in hand.

[Zakalwe]

I reckon it’ll take about 4 weeks for some of the comments on here to age like cheese

[TankTom]

It’s clear to me from all these posts from people saying they wouldn’t take a watch they’ve been waiting for for 2 years cannot and never could, really afford a Rolex.

[mjr24]

These watches are not coming back to MSRP.

Will the prices drop? Sure.

However, they will drop to a point that people will just need to have them. SS Daytona at $20k? No, thanks. However, SS Daytona at say....$15k? Everyone will buy them.

Hulk at $14k? No thanks. Hulk at $10,500? For sure.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mjr24

These watches are not coming back to MSRP.

Will the prices drop? Sure.

However, they will drop to a point that people will just need to have them. SS Daytona at $20k? No, thanks. However, SS Daytona at say....$15k? Everyone will buy them.

Hulk at $14k? No thanks. Hulk at $10,500? For sure.

If the flippers are only making a couple hundred (leaving blue SkyD and Ceramic Daytona out of this) the desire to flip becomes no more and that entire spectrum is gone. Prices will plummet.

[Xerxes77]

If the “hot” model will have only let’s say 1-2 k above the MRSP then maybe will be buy it to watch lover.
But the hips on this days will stopped.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by dmash

Do you seriously think the average Rolex buyer is in the 1% with these ‘huge’ bank accounts you speak of? Do people really think owning a simple Rolex watch puts them in the upper echelon? Your normal Rolex owner is also a fairly normal individual. We’re not discussing Patek perpetual calendars.

This is the problem. We want a simple Rolex but they want from us to pay a Patek.
This must be stop and will be stopped!

[terrywoods]

Be nice if Rolex dropped the prices back to the old list prices of 4 to 6 years ago to help keep sales

To be honest my interest in watches has dropped off a cliff now I’ve to think will I have a job in the 12 months

Unless your super rich people won’t even be thinking anything about a watch in times like this

I feel sorry for the sales assistants who may be out of work, but don’t feel that sorry for ADs you had your cake for far too long and most I’ve experienced have been ultra rude.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by ckizzy

i hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below msrp ;)

x 2.

[bezler]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months.

....

This is my opinion, what's yours?

I agree with your general analysis, but I believe that nearly all Rolex watches will be available at well under MSRP - as they were traditionally, even during good times.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.

Mat, despite the replies you’ve received you're spot on. This isn’t rocket science however. All non essential items lose traction during times of strife, and the very very first items to be crossed off the shopping list are luxury/status items. I would like to add to your post though (not thread hijacking ).

The very first watches to see serious market losses will be those affected by the rising tide lifts all boats phenomenon. Namely, 16710 GMT, Daytona (any), pre-maxi case subs, etc. The rationale behind my assumption is that these watches rose in price because the current variant was unobtainable. Even though Rolex cut supply through manufacturing closing, this takes time to filter down to the supply chain, which will still receive equal amounts of watches, I estimate for a good six months out. These watches will slowly become more difficult to move until we get to the point where those who couldn’t buy new will be able to and the previously forced purchase of a 5 digit will end. Maybe your original post didn’t focus upon the under-padding of the market (older pieces) which will be the first to fall away?

Great post and very timely Mat

[Homo Sapien X]

Many people have forgotten that Rolex used to push their sport models with discounts. It’s likely this coming recession (or depression) would cause dealers to dump off their stocks. I’m seeing along of happy buyers of steel sport models lately.
Pray this will not happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[macrowatch]

If credit freezes, then probably will be at MSRP only because we’re going back below MSRP again with discounts. Corporate US tapped collectively about 700B new debt by drawing down their lines of credit in the last two weeks. If that’s not called systematic risk if one dominoe starts to hit the other, I don’t know what is.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by lkngshrp

The ripple effects of this are logical. Most people can’t afford to go without one paycheque let alone 2, 3 or more. This is unheard of and likely to last at least 6 to 8 weeks or longer and now with just about everything shut down how can one expect to weather this financially without significant help? I’m not panicked I’m just being logical. What’s going on now is driven by fear and anxiety and is almost surreal. It needs to end soon or the already devastating consequences will be dire. China went through this while the globe watched. Now the entire rest of Western Civilization is living it while China watches. Literally all of Europe is shut down and North America is on the brink of doing the same. We are probably a week away from a global meltdown if the tides don’t turn soon. At that point our watches will be worth much less than they are now.

Most people cant go 1-2 weeks without a paycheck, now imagine this lasting 2-3 months. This is the reality we have now.

On-top of that, even after 2-3 months experts are saying the virus could easily return or infect another location. Our economic future at this point is very uncertain, which will most likely spill over into our purchase power of luxury watches.

[superpop]

Simple economics, smart people with money do not spend this money in a volatile market like the one we are in around the world. They keep the powder dry to leverage the eventual rise. They do not go out and buy 10K fashion baubles. I work for one of the largest hospital supply companies in the world running a sales force, and you can imagine our product is flying off the shelves, we are set to have a banner year. Yet I would not spend a dime on a Rolex or any other luxury item. It's not about the CV folks, it's about what it is doing to economies and jobs and cash flow. Far more people die of cancer and heart disease but you do not see people completely freaking out over that. This virus has the potential to throw us into a global depression, and if that happens then yes, even the almighty daytona will be cheap, they will all be cheap. Have we learned nothing from history.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Most people cant go 1-2 weeks without a paycheck, now imagine this lasting 2-3 months. This is the reality we have now.

On-top of that, even after 2-3 months experts are saying the virus could easily return or infect another location. Our economic future at this point is very uncertain, which will most likely spill over into our purchase power of luxury watches.

+1
Everyone should read this article, you can choose to agree or disagree with it but I think it has a lot of merit since it's from the UK's Imperial College, but absolutely horrifying. Maybe some UK members can tell us the Imperial College is usually full of it?? I couldn't get the link to open up for the full report but the synopsis the author gives was sufficient for me, message received loud and clear.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...ention-steps/#

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by superpop

Simple economics, smart people with money do not spend this money in a volatile market like the one we are in around the world. They keep the powder dry to leverage the eventual rise. They do not go out and buy 10K fashion baubles. I work for one of the largest hospital supply companies in the world running a sales force, and you can imagine our product is flying off the shelves, we are set to have a banner year. Yet I would not spend a dime on a Rolex or any other luxury item. It's not about the CV folks, it's about what it is doing to economies and jobs and cash flow. Far more people die of cancer and heart disease but you do not see people completely freaking out over that. This virus has the potential to throw us into a global depression, and if that happens then yes, even the almighty daytona will be cheap, they will all be cheap. Have we learned nothing from history.

Love your perspective. Well said

[BaselWorld]

Originally Posted by TankTom

It’s clear to me from all these posts from people saying they wouldn’t take a watch they’ve been waiting for for 2 years cannot and never could, really afford a Rolex.

I fully agree with you; that said, I wonder what happends with steel Nautilus prices... I do not see 5711/12 or 26 will come down anywhere near retail price.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by BaselWorld

I fully agree with you; that said, I wonder what happends with steel Nautilus prices... I do not see 5711/12 or 26 will come down anywhere near retail price.

Ive always liked the Nautilus and remember when it was considered ‘ugly’ by a lot and could even be had at discount.

What’s even funnier is I’m talking as recent as 5 years ago, not 15-20.

It’s easy to forget how recent this explosion/trend happened. And if it goes back down it will go back down much faster than the ride up.

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by BaselWorld

I fully agree with you; that said, I wonder what happends with steel Nautilus prices... I do not see 5711/12 or 26 will come down anywhere near retail price.

Of course they won’t. Why? Because PP buyers can survive a mini recession without any problem at all. Not like a lot on here whom like to shout about the fact they have a ROLEX but are all now crying due to having no cash behind them.

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Of course they won’t. Why? Because PP buyers can survive a mini recession without any problem at all. Not like a lot on here whom like to shout about the fact they have a ROLEX but are all now crying due to having no cash behind them.

If you bought a hulk for £11k and it drops to £8k and that ruins your year, you have big problems

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Of course they won’t. Why? Because PP buyers can survive a mini recession without any problem at all. Not like a lot on here whom like to shout about the fact they have a ROLEX but are all now crying due to having no cash behind them.

Which mini recession are you referring to?

[Mmf115]

Just got a call from a local AD this morning that they had a 116610 LN available and it was mine if I wanted it but I had to come there today. I had reached out about 1 month ago for availability. Had to pass due to current conditions unfortunately.

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Which mini recession are you referring to?

Sorry. I meant end of the world. Zombie apocalypse - whatever you want to call this thing you claim we are entering into.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Wow. The reason people are blindly panicking is because of posts like this. Steel Daytona at retail? Don’t be silly. What were those ‘hot models’ you were offered?

They are not panicking

"Goldman Sachs now says US GDP will shrink 24% next quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic - which would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history"

This is as it says 2.5 worse than the great depression.

Wishful thinking is not going to stop the asteroid from smashing everything to smitereans. Luxury watches will be the last thing on peoples minds in 6 months.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Sorry. I meant end of the world. Zombie apocalypse - whatever you want to call this thing you claim we are entering into.

Let's not take it to the extremely, but whatever is happening certainly isn't mini.

[yonexsp]

If anyone has any doubts, look at the for sale section of this forum. Pages and pages of watches being listed, bumped desperate sellers chasing a falling knife.

People still trying to make a profit over MSRP in the midst of possibly the worst economic crisis since the depression.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

They are not panicking

"Goldman Sachs now says US GDP will shrink 24% next quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic - which would be 2.5 times bigger than any decline in history"

This is as it says 2.5 worse than the great depression.

Wishful thinking is not going to stop the asteroid from smashing everything to smitereans. Luxury watches will be the last thing on peoples minds in 6 months.

I find it interesting how some people are not grasping this. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking or they are in denial?