SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

[kalo925]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

If you only lost 100k in the market you aren’t very wealthy. And even prior to crash the equity premium wasn’t unreasonable. I just want to things to get back “normal” in every way other than the second hand price of steel sports Rolex which id like to see at MSRP.

You're assuming he has lost 30%, which apparently you have.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by kalo925

You're assuming he has lost 30%, which apparently you have.

Well you assume incorrectly, I have bonds and alternatives. But it doesn’t take much equity exposure even with those other assets having done ok to have lost 100k and still not be some not be some monocled baron.

[C_Troy242]

Why "lost"? Are you planning to hit the sell button at the bottom? Your portfolio is temporarily off peak, that's it. So what? It's a golden opportunity for most to re-adjust portfolios and deploy dry powder. In fact, it may be one of the silver linings to this current situation. On top of the watches thing of course ...

[garyk]

China is starting to reopen for business and demand for things is going nuts. There's an article out there about Chinese "revenge buying" about the pent up demand from being locked down for a month...

[kalo925]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Well you assume incorrectly, I have bonds and alternatives. But it doesn’t take much equity exposure even with those other assets having done ok to have lost 100k and still not be some not be some monocled baron.

The points are.. what is the definition of wealthy? And you don't know anything about that person, just as I don't know about you and your investments. Assuming is not good ;)

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by C_Troy242

Why "lost"? Are you planning to hit the sell button at the bottom? Your portfolio is temporarily off peak, that's it. So what? It's a golden opportunity for most to re-adjust portfolios and deploy dry powder. In fact, it may be one of the silver linings to this current situation. On top of the watches thing of course ...

Youre making assumptions about the magnitude and timing of recovery. There are currently lost profits that are not going to be recovered one for one since consumption is down in many sectors. The best estimate of what a security is worth what the market says it’s worth. Hopefully there’s been an overreaction but it’s not inevitable. How are those 30 year paper losses on the Nikkei feeling?

I am rebalancing my portfolio and loss harvesting, but I probably wouldn’t even buy a current steel panda at MSRP right now for a variety of reasons.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by kalo925

The points are.. what is the definition of wealthy? And you don't know anything about that person, just as I don't know about you and your investments. Assuming is not good ;)

That’s a fair point - I’m just reacting generally to people who appear to really be averse to acknowledging that the current economic environment will probably result in lower second hand watch prices!

[kalo925]

Originally Posted by garyk

China is starting to reopen for business and demand for things is going nuts. There's an article out there about Chinese "revenge buying" about the pent up demand from being locked down for a month...

The Chinese did exactly the right thing. But they still need to quarantine every person coming in. Which I totally agree with. But it does hint at some issues until we see the virus naturally slow down, have a cure, or have a vaccine. One has to wonder how long borders will be locked down or severely restricted with quarantine. And will there be much less globalization over all? Lots of questions..

[returntorolex]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?

Interesting. Time will tell.

Did you purchase what your AD had offered?

[kalo925]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

That’s a fair point - I’m just reacting generally to people who appear to really be averse to acknowledging that the current economic environment will probably result in lower second hand watch prices!

We agree, prices are going down.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by kalo925

The Chinese did exactly the right thing. But they still need to quarantine every person coming in. Which I totally agree with. But it does hint at some issues until we see the virus naturally slow down, have a cure, or have a vaccine. One has to wonder how long borders will be locked down or severely restricted with quarantine. And will there be much less globalization over all? Lots of questions..

Totally agree...

[TheEverydayWatch]

I think this will be even more so the case in Europe. The European watch market has catered to a growing wealthy tourist population from Asia. As many tourists do, they take advantage of the VAT, but with an overall down market and travel restrictions, I'm sure inventory will be much higher than usual.

In addition to this, when you consider average wages in most European countries, the vast majority of the population couldn't afford a Rolex when the economy is strong.

If you want an SS Rolex from the AD, go to Europe this summer!

Best,

The Everyday Watch

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

I'm not going to reveal the exact models just incase the AD is reading this thread.

2 mid-range stainless steel models, not Daytona.

But also keep in mind I was not even on the list for them, and I am also not a preferred customer with no purchase history.

Cheers

Why does it matter if the AD knows... because you're not revealing which AD anyways

Curious why they would be calling you if you're not on any list for them and not preferred customer with no purchase history.

I find it hard to believe AD called everyone on their waiting list AND all the their customers WITH purchase history and no one bought anything. No offense I'd think you'd be the last on the list to call.

[eltonbalch]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Why does it matter if the AD knows... because you're not revealing which AD anyways

Curious why they would be calling you if you're not on any list for them and not preferred customer with no purchase history.

I find it hard to believe AD called everyone on their waiting list AND all the their customers WITH purchase history and no one bought anything. No offense I'd think you'd be the last on the list to call.

Well, if he’s the last person they would call, it speaks volumes to just how nervous the AD is, especially if they still have desirable watches left to sell.

[Speed]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?

I think you mean "losing" jobs.

At any rate, I'm not going to be donning my wading boots anytime soon to take advantage of any flood of Rolex watches.

Interesting to know your AD was open for business.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Speed

I think you mean "losing" jobs.

At any rate, I'm not going to be donning my wading boots anytime soon to take advantage of any flood of Rolex watches.

Interesting to know your AD was open for business.

Yes thanks for the correction, I always add an extra O in there for some reason.

They were open, I don't think they are anymore.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Why does it matter if the AD knows... because you're not revealing which AD anyways

Curious why they would be calling you if you're not on any list for them and not preferred customer with no purchase history.

I find it hard to believe AD called everyone on their waiting list AND all the their customers WITH purchase history and no one bought anything. No offense I'd think you'd be the last on the list to call.

Do you think the AD would be cool with me theorizing about a possible Rolex crash? I think not.

Out of respect for the AD I'm keeping it anonymous, and prefer to be cautious about it.

I'm on the list with them for 2 other models, but curiously they called me up asking if I was interested in these other 2 models I was not on the list for. I do indeed have no purchase history with them, but I stop by often enough and have a chat.

[Skyweller]

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

I have a funny feeling you're spot on with this. Scary times, but also historic and something humanity will learn from.

[SlideRacker]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

Duplicate deleted

[SlideRacker]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

Throughout history, with every Black Swan event (2000 tech crash, 2008 financial crash, coronavirus) it’s always the same story. And it goes something like “We’ve never seen anything like this before”. We know this virus will peak, run it’s course, and burn out. It’s the nature of viruses. Europe survived the bubonic plague. We’ll survive corona.

[ndrs63]

Originally Posted by SlideRacker

Throughout history, anytime there’s a Black Sean event (2000 tech crash, 2008 financial crash, not this) it’s always the same story. And it goes something like “We’ve never seem anything like this before”. Europe survived the bubonic plague. We’ll survive this.

I hope you are right, but I still am afraid it is different. Unfortunately


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[kalo925]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

We could stay producing even if a terrible virus was around always. Just need a slightly different approach of isolating an entire group of employees together. Bring in portable housing. We should be doing this already for vital workers. Small family businesses keep going in isolation together. Draconian, but products could flow. Other industries that can work from home keep going. Online education keeps going. No reason a house painter and craftsmen couldn't do their jobs working alone every day. It could help until the virus slows naturally, there is a cure or a vaccine works. Just would take good procedures, rules and perhaps even monitoring of isolation. Dramatic idea, but people will be creative if they have to. But yes, watch prices will go down.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

I hope you’re very wrong :)


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[DJ39]

Originally Posted by Skyweller

Long time lurker and Rolex lover. While I was initially amused by this thread, I am sufficiently concerned that I decided to make a profile so I could comment.

While I don't claim to have expert insight into watch markets (other than watching them avidly since 2016), I am an expert in medicine. I have 18 years of hospital medicine, 5 years as a specialist surgeon, and I regularly take patients to the brink of death and back. It's my day job, with which I fund, amongst other things, my watch habit.

The Covid-19 Pandemic is totally unprecedented territory. Any of us lucky enough to have lived in the privileged West for the last 70 years since World War II will never have experienced anything like this. This is war against an invisible and deadly enemy. This is going to bring the World, and all of its financial markets, to its knees.

I dare/bet anyone to come back and re-read this post in 6 months, and tell me I am wrong. Most of us will survive, but the world will never be the same again. Quite frankly paying US$25k for a ceramic Daytona was utterly absurd anyway. I don't even think MSRP will seem reasonable once the dust has settled.

Take care out there.

I do not doubt the severity but there are close to 8 billion people on the planet, we will endure


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[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by DJ39

I do not doubt the severity but there are close to 8 billion people on the planet, we will endure


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Don’t worry there are still 81k PCs of preowned Rolex watches out there , 700 pieces of 116500LN ceramic Daytona hunting for buyers


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[TempoKing]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet

Not at all ...the market is dead
...people are dying in high numbers every hour
All the sports models (hundreds of them) will come out of the safes
And will pretty much sell at retail or below
No room for speculation, black-marketeers games and or greed.
I say bye bye summer ....let’s talk about demand in 2021 again..hopefully

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by TempoKing

...people are dying in high numbers every hour

What? This virus is still not killing many people globally, and certainly not on the hour. The numbers just aren't there. Now we need to minimize the spread for sure, but this is just objectively not true. All hope is not yet lost. 2020 is not yet lost. The truth is we just don't know what will happen going forward, but evidence suggest the virus can be mitigated going forward with compliance with distancing recommendations.

[Goonthree]

Some people might start to do the yolo and start buying lol

[neilm92]

There’s a very different, and in my opinion apathetic, reaction from our friends across the pond. Unfortunately I think you’re all in for a big awakening, certainly if it’s anything similar to Europe. I don’t mean that to sound condescending, I thought Italy’s measures were ridiculous and wouldn’t hit me, but they have and if I could give any piece of advice, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Stay safe everyone.