Can pre-owned Rolex prices shoot up with ADs locked down

[rolexguy212]

What do folks think, can pre-owned prices shoot up with ADs temporarily closing stores, cutting down hours and overall shortage of new supply coming into AD stores?

[mfserge]

And the economy in the toilet...doubtful.

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by rolexguy212

What do folks think, can pre-owned prices shoot up with ADs temporarily closing stores, cutting down hours and overall shortage of new supply coming into AD stores?

If the economy was the same as it was in December, prices would shoot up, as supply would be down and demand stays the same, at the moment demand has fallen, and supply is still coming through. Prices are dropping.

[lamnyc]

All luxury brands will come to a screeching halt. Other things are more important than watches for most people. As you already see. Gray prices are coming down.

[peterpl]

yep. they are all going up by minimum 700% return on your investment.

Buy them all up now!!!

[garyk]

There’s no shortage of opinions all over this forum but I was always taught supply and demand. Demand may be on an equal par with supply so down is what I’m thinking overall. But don’t worry, this too shall pass...

[thomaspp]

No


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[Tools]

I don't think that AD's have much to do with the secondary market. However, the used market will respond to the same stimuli that most other luxury products will see.

[inadeje]

Short answer no. Watches are uber luxury items that 90% of the population don’t care about. The 10% who do are broken down into people like us, maybe 3% and, the other 7% appreciate nice watches but don’t necessarily own one. Sorry to burst everyone’s bubble but, few people enjoy our hobby in the greater scheme of things. Prices will decline because even hardened collectors will re-prioritize when the general population is in strife.

[tvandevelde]

Getting cheaper by the day.

[Onikage]

Supply increases as demand decreases. And it's gonna get really ugly..

[Rado63]

With Rolex not producing and distributing the current references, the pre owned market does represent the current inventory available for sale, the price would ultimately be driven by the number of buyers in the market. If people aren't willing to part with their money at this time, then the prices will most likely experience some decline. Unless this catastrophe causes people to sell off everything, The inventory for discontinued references isn't going to change since those models aren't be manufactured but prices would still be influenced by the number of willing buyers.

[fiosity]

I take a contrary view. I believe after Covid, the economy will bounce back

[kizerman]

Does everyone remember what Rolex prices were like on the forums back around 2009? It was crazy what you get the most desirable references for.

I remember buying a 5 year old 16710 Pepsi Full kit, just back from an RSC service for $3650! I sold it two years later for a $2K profit and thought I did well. Lol.

It may not get to that point again but anyone looking to buy a second hand Luxury timepiece would be smart to wait a month or so. The owners who get forced into selling out of financial hardship will drive down prices across the board.

Every market eventually is corrected, one way or another.

[kizerman]

Originally Posted by fiosity

I take a contrary view. I believe after Covid, the economy will bounce back

It always does eventually, history proves that but there will be enough damage done to recess the economy. It's already happening and will get much worse before it rebounds.

[sechsgang]

Now there is no new supply coming in, only what's currently avail and that's probably not realistically changing for at least 2 months min for that kind of production ...so some grey dealers will want to move their products for a slight discount for sure...but when the hot models come into ad's and people can visit them, the line for watches to purchase is much longer than the few people who will say no when they are actually offered an in demand piece...I wouldn't count on any of these being had at any discount from MSRP, granted for a period of time you can probably snag some standard submariners or steel pieces for MSRP plus tax prices as grey's move so if you're hunting for something like that this is def the time!

[Ihatecheese]

No doubt prices will continue to drop whilst the crisis continues and for a while after.

[Rosex]

The 20's will be known as the roaring 20's great low base to kick off from. We will see huge growth going forward, fill your boots. Buying opportunities are presenting themselves!

[Sandpit]

I don’t think so. Demand will be minimal at the moment with so many people getting sick and losing jobs. Once this is over then I do see an aggressive bounce back in the stock markets.

By the time there’s any meaningful demand though Rolex will be churning out pieces and ADs will be back open for business.

If I was a gambling man, I would say that the time to be on a waiting list would be as ADs open up. Switzerland are way ahead of you guys in its virus path and so Rolex will be open a lot sooner than you guys will be and will be ready to ship.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by rolexguy212

What do folks think, can pre-owned prices shoot up with ADs temporarily closing stores, cutting down hours and overall shortage of new supply coming into AD stores?

I think that vintage prices will keep reasonably steady.

Modern Rolex? No. Not even close, don't forget that pre 2017 most SS watches were sold at a discount at grey dealers while the economy was in a much better state.

On a different note, I'm amazed at the grey dealers who are not budging and still have tonnes of watches on their books which now aren't moving. I thought that grey dealers are in a volume business? What's stopping them from being first and offloading as much as they can with minimal losses? It's like they are inviting the market to punish them.

[Tony-GB]

Prices are going to crash spectacularly. They'll be giving away Daytona's with Happy Meals!

[Macnavara]

Ive need to sell one of my 126710 blro ....hard to sell now...just had an offer of £11k...so definitely on the down for now....probably take the hit on it and move on

[faimag]

Depends on what you mean by "pre-owned". I would presume 4- and 5-digit references will be less affected, particularly if they are mint and full set (I don't see these dropping at all, as they are mostly in the hands of enthusiasts, not greys).
So-so examples drop. Modern refs drop too, but not nearly enough, i.e. not crashing. I do not see any scenario in which preowned pieces increase in this market.

[RJM25R]

Originally Posted by Macnavara

Ive need to sell one of my 126710 blro ....hard to sell now...just had an offer of £11k...so definitely on the down for now....probably take the hit on it and move on

When you say “take the hit” did you buy it from grey to begin with?

[Harry-57]

It depends on the supply available to meet the demand. This drove prices up and it will at some point, possibly now, drive prices down.

More watches than buyers, price goes down. More buyers than watches, price goes up. People will make careers out of theorising and speculating over infinite complications and micro theories , but the essential driver could not be more simple.

[syahriltaher]

There will always be people who survive the bad economy environment.....look at for example the Stock Market.....Some Stocks keep making all time highs....even now.....


So I believe Rolex's price will at least stay the same.....but expect increase due to shortage of production....


Regards,

[bobabreath]

Depends what is going down more--supply or demand?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by rolexguy212

What do folks think, can pre-owned prices shoot up with ADs temporarily closing stores, cutting down hours and overall shortage of new supply coming into AD stores?

Maybe

[AK797]

Originally Posted by fiosity

I take a contrary view. I believe after Covid, the economy will bounce back

I think this is becoming increasingly the view of people, as this virus was inflicted upon us out of the blue we we have almost been cheated out of are freedoms and regular lives, so it is more like a war than a recession in psychological terms and thus people are increasingly defiant and determined not to let this thing spiral out of hand and into a depression, so I do expect quite alot of buying and a general feeling of people doing their bit however they can, when it is safe to do so.

The watch market is also not a free market but an oligopoly dominated by some large greys who have a vested interest and the resources to keep things as similar to before as they can, so that will skew the watch market, prices won't fall as fast as supply/demand may suggest and they will rise much faster.

[syahriltaher]

Economically speaking, the situation is not that bad.....Nasdaq is positive ytd and 15% yoy....Growth Stock ETF is only -3.5% ytd and 9% yoy....

So the buying power is still there....


Regards