Vintage Rolex Undervalued?

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

It also shows in this forum……less active than ever unfortunately…….116500 will be worth more than a 6265 pretty soon……..

Give me a 6265 and even a 16520 any day over a 116500

[Dan S]

This thread just confirms my conviction that discussions of future value are the least interesting aspect of every watch forum. And yet, they always go on for pages and pages.

[Kingface66]

Originally Posted by Dan S

This thread just confirms my conviction that discussions of future value are the least interesting aspect of every watch forum. And yet, they always go on for page and pages.

Noooo kidding.

[stewester]

I think "proper" vintage Rolex (plexi/4 digit) is on an effective downswing if we compare its performance against other watches and other asset classes in the current insane market. Prices have gone up but to nothing like the same degree as elsewhere.

The new money is going after the modern ceramic stuff with 5 digits for those who can't or won't spend the money required. I don't think 4 digits even factor into consideration for many - too fragile, too potentially fiddled with and without the immediate Instagram recognition of a ceramic Daytona, Hulk etc.

I can see top, top examples holding steady but I predict a gradual decline in vintage values in comparison to modern Rolex over the coming several years. I'll personally still be buying as I don't care for modern Rolex or modern watches in general, but I think investors should look elsewhere.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by fizz

If you've got the (vintage) watch you want, why is the lack of price rise an issue? I mean, it infuriates me somewhat when collectors of modern watches (or Rolex) don't want vintage for "being smaller", "looking old", or "used" etc. To me, many (but not all) modern watch owners (especially recently in the last 18 to 24 months) are those that are purely concerned about the investment potential of the watch (crypto-millionaires etc.).

They buy because they can and have money. They track their graphs going up and turning green on Chrono24. They post images of their watch cases with their fancy "hard to get" acquisitions and gloat about what it's worth.

Truthfully, anyone can buy a modern. You just need money.

But even with money, you can't just buy a vintage (Rolex or otherwise).

Personal anecdote: A very, very reputable and highly regarded vintage watch dealer (known as one of the finest in the industry) offered me a UG Tri-Compax from the 40's yesterday claiming it as was "all original". With 3 months of constant research under the belt, it took 15 minutes to figure out the dial, with all its lovely patina, was actually refurbished. Three more highly knowledgeable collectors of the reference I checked with said the same thing. Even the best dealers get it wrong and the analytical, studying and discovering aspect of vintage watch buying (and not just money-based acquisition) is what I love.

To some of us, that is part of the appeal of collecting and will never go away.

Your post very succinctly covers the pros and cons of vintage and modern Rolex watch collecting.
First to those who follow prices I think it’s just a matter of relativity. Whereas vintage pieces maybe increasing at 10% per year which is surely healthy growth but when viewed against the growth rate of modern pieces that seem to be increasing almost that amount monthly, vintage appears to be at a standstill.

Plus as your personal experience puts a very fine point on the fact that buying vintage takes a lot of time and work. Your 3 months of study on a single model plus confirmation from 3 fellow experts is way more than the vast majority are willing to do. When you can if your fortunate enough to have a good AD relationship make purchases worry free and be in the plus column immediately as opposed to maybe years down the road you can sell your vintage piece at a profit. Whether you give a damn or not on the price of any of your collection new or vintage that factor exists and has an impact on the hobby.

Read a thread about a 1680 dial that was thought to be a MK2 but didn’t match all the comparisons and therefore it was suggested it was an Mk3 but that had a few different features which led one poster who put up a fantastic 3 dial image comparison to conclude with “This hobby is ridiculous”. Lol and my thoughts exactly as much as I love vintage it is extremely difficult even with the amazing tutorial posts that some of the pros put up here and the VRF.


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[perry911113]

I just pulled the trigger on a 1957 6494 to add to my 1970 5500 and 1988 15010.
The new ones are too new.
I can't wait to receive the 6494. Once I get it I will post a thread on it.

[janice&fred]

Originally Posted by Dan S

Threads discussing watches as investments are incredibly tiresome.

The premise of this thread is so absurd that I really didn't expect people to take it seriously. The only context in which vintage Rolex vintage can be considered to be "standing still" or "undervalued" is the ridiculously overhyped and manipulated new Rolex market. By any reasonable standard, including vintage or new watches from other brands, vintage Rolex has seen an insane and unmatched run-up in recent years. Even dirt-common matte-dial 5513s have tripled in price over a short timeline.

Couldn't agree more Dan.
i was wondering the same as most of our run-of-the-mill vintage OP's and datejusts in our collection have practically doubled in value recently.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

It also shows in this forum……less active than ever unfortunately…….116500 will be worth more than a 6265 pretty soon……..

Strongly disagree, unless the 6265 was a piece of junk in horrible condition with service parts. Once the pandemic-fueled supply-chain problems subside, I think prices of all modern high-end Swiss brands will stabilize. Vintage will continue to increase.

Also, .... agree with Dan's post above that value/investment threads, and that approach to watch collecting, has really taken a lot of the fun out of the hobby.

When you don't care whether your vintage Rolex is worth $1 or $1 million, you know you're a true watch lover.