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20 December 2022, 08:31 AM | #1 |
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Prices in anticipated 2023 recession ...
Do prices for used pieces typically fall during a recessionary period or will they increase in conjunction with any list price increases by Rolex?
I haven't kept tract of watch price trends during the last 3 recessions, so I ask thinking someone here surely has. Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high. |
20 December 2022, 08:46 AM | #2 |
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well I am certainly no expert but what I have seen in the last 6 months is price increases from AD's and reductions in the grey market !
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20 December 2022, 08:55 AM | #3 |
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Retail price increases due to the expected ~9% devaluation in the Dollar, perhaps 11% for the Brit Pound and Euro.... If only there was a stable currency, there would be no need to increase prices.
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20 December 2022, 10:56 AM | #4 |
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Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)
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20 December 2022, 11:47 AM | #5 | |
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20 December 2022, 11:48 AM | #6 |
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Price will increase yoy. This will help combat the grey market.
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20 December 2022, 11:52 AM | #7 |
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Lmao
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20 December 2022, 12:00 PM | #8 |
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As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case
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20 December 2022, 12:42 PM | #9 |
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MSRP and then whatever the market will bear.
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20 December 2022, 01:21 PM | #10 | |
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Anecdotally, a grey I've done business with several times over the last 25 years is starting to build a Rolex inventory again (currently 11 Subs), and has marked down quite a few of them in the last couple weeks. Not by a lot, but still going in the right direction both in terms of inventory and pricing. |
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20 December 2022, 01:31 PM | #11 |
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20 December 2022, 01:37 PM | #12 |
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Prices are going into the toilet. Revert back to this in March.
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20 December 2022, 01:38 PM | #13 |
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20 December 2022, 02:03 PM | #14 |
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20 December 2022, 02:17 PM | #15 | |
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Indeed it was as there have been several dealers disguised as members on these forums as of late trying to stimulate demand and prop up the market. If in fact, you are not one of them, then welcome to the forums. To answer your question, I would largely agree with Calatrava_r, though the demand side of the equation appears to be drying up by the day (retail as well as secondary/grey market). |
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20 December 2022, 02:36 PM | #16 |
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1.05 million annual production (Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult estimate 2021).
Recession,no recession ,there will always be plenty money around in the world to gobble them up . Annual increase on MRSP is the real long term trend to follow . New goes up,used goes up and in between we have silly seasons .. What is more important is the world wide decrease in safety with your physical association with the Rolex on your wrist . It may become the biggest factor in the white glove after-market pricing. |
20 December 2022, 02:47 PM | #17 | |
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I'm shocked you even wear anything down in jo'burg |
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20 December 2022, 05:48 PM | #18 |
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Might be a recession but my local grey guy sold a 126610LV, 126600, and a 116710BLNR as well as the 124060 I got from him, all in about a week. The 126610LV was tempting but I couldn’t talk him down from 16500 and the BLNR was interesting but again couldn’t talk him down and the BLNR was a 2014 with a nick in the clasp that was too deep to buff out. Then he got the 124060 and I fell in love so it all worked out great for me in the end.
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20 December 2022, 07:52 PM | #19 | |
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Arrived with his 124060 .So,I am wearing his 124060 now and he wears one of mine,a 126610LN. Its called Rolex optimism in a negative world . |
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20 December 2022, 10:53 PM | #20 |
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20 December 2022, 11:58 PM | #21 |
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If the recession is severe (which I personally expect), I believe MSRP will continue to be an attractive proposition. Grey values will come down to near MSRP levels or even lower for older watches in worse shape as waiting lists dwindle and inventories rise. Waiting list wait times will go down.
Realistically, all of this has already been happening for months. We are now just waiting for the last leg down, which will be by far the most painful one. And that is the one that will really do the damage to the grey market. Again...ADs will have no problem selling Daytonas and GMTs at MSRP....not even after a 10% increase in January. |
21 December 2022, 12:16 AM | #22 | |
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21 December 2022, 08:16 AM | #23 | |
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21 December 2022, 09:07 AM | #24 |
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This
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21 December 2022, 11:04 PM | #25 |
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I'm not a player in this but if I were a collector I'd look for opportunities as demand shrinks in the coming downturn.
Established "Greys" who know their business will manage through it, Newcomers may already be dealing with an inventory overhang. Finding these and negotiating is the key. Easy for me to say |
21 December 2022, 11:09 PM | #26 |
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I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768 |
21 December 2022, 11:59 PM | #27 |
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I’ve seen grey dealers now offering a lot less for watches
Also the one I know is currently advertising a few watches on “special offer” It certainly looks like demand and therefore prices are lower to me |
22 December 2022, 12:14 AM | #28 | |
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22 December 2022, 12:30 AM | #29 |
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Rolex is historically recession-proof
The only question to be asked: Are the diamonds & Omegas connected to the Rolex recession-proof? |
22 December 2022, 12:40 AM | #30 |
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In your place, I won't worry about the Rolex, nor the luxury market, which are apart from the recession/inflation problems of ordinary mortals...
That said, there are brands that were already selling badly that will plummet even more.
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