Finally happened with jumbo 50th anniversary

[HMHM]

I think two factors are at play here regarding the future prices of RO Jumbo - mainly US Presidential election 2024 and post election economy as well as trends/taste. Pre-election its almost impossible to expect an economic meltdown or else the incumbent will lose the election. So prices will stay at least stable until November 2024. Post-election is anyone's guess. Thats where prices may go up or down.

The factor of trend is also pivotal. 20 years ago ROO was the darling of AP, and today a majority of ROO can be bought under retail on the secondary market. The thing with trend is that it is cyclical - what's hot today may be less sought after tomorrow.

In my opinion, I think all the sought after watches today have more room to go down than going up - it's unlikely we will ever reach the peak of 2020-2021 again where SS Daytona is 50k, RO Jumbo is 100k etc. However, I think it will remain above retail, simply because a precedent has been set for watches to be above retail and the dealers will never allow the illusion of "investment grade watches" to disappear. Or else how are they going to "convince" someone to buy a second hand watch with sweat, scratches and human DNA for X amount above MSRP?

[Uros]

Originally Posted by codecow

It’s still very rare to see a steel Royal Oak randomly. I have seen exactly one that I remember.

Last time I was in Vegas waiting to check in at Aria there was a guy in the same line with a rose gold RO chrono. Now that’s one you REALLY don’t see. He had the same TUMI McLaren luggage as I did but my DD 40 onyx seemed lame in comparison to his ROC although it’s likely more Vegas.

As for the watch in question, it will likely decline some this year until November and then after the election who knows. It’s never trading below retail, that’s just silly.

In general public yes, beofre it become dangerous we were at some oppeming of lounge in London Bvlgari hotel and my jumbo was like rolex submariner in Athens fancy restaurant:) plus number of nautiluses of course

Probably biased since bought one at retail but it simply not 50k plus watch I mean none are to be traded at 2x retail.


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[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Please re-read the article, it says around 1,000. Sub 1,000 is around 1,000, isn’t it????? Now I was just at FPJ collectors event hosted by the brand and the 900 figure was used, total.

Now, u are missing the bigger point, as usual. The entire brand producing less watches than one SS line, not including gold or other special super limited variants… please stop nit picking and think broader!

12th paragraph of the article:
"Considering the brand produces about 1,000 mechanical watches per year (plus around 400-500 units of the quartz-powered Elegante), this equates to 6.25 mechanical watches per Geneva-based employee per year."

This is corroborated with my AD who also visited the manufacture recently. I have dinners with FP himself and Masa and we do talk about watches.

Many people still don't believe FP Journe produces 1,400-1,500 watched annually. Why don't you write to their HQ for a confirmation? I appreciate getting the facts right before we delve into the "bigger picture".

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I think two factors are at play here regarding the future prices of RO Jumbo - mainly US Presidential election 2024 and post election economy as well as trends/taste. Pre-election its almost impossible to expect an economic meltdown or else the incumbent will lose the election. So prices will stay at least stable until November 2024. Post-election is anyone's guess. Thats where prices may go up or down.

The factor of trend is also pivotal. 20 years ago ROO was the darling of AP, and today a majority of ROO can be bought under retail on the secondary market. The thing with trend is that it is cyclical - what's hot today may be less sought after tomorrow.

In my opinion, I think all the sought after watches today have more room to go down than going up - it's unlikely we will ever reach the peak of 2020-2021 again where SS Daytona is 50k, RO Jumbo is 100k etc. However, I think it will remain above retail, simply because a precedent has been set for watches to be above retail and the dealers will never allow the illusion of "investment grade watches" to disappear. Or else how are they going to "convince" someone to buy a second hand watch with sweat, scratches and human DNA for X amount above MSRP?

Well, except for meltdowns in 2000, 2008, 2016 and 2020, u are correct...

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Well, except for meltdowns in 2000, 2008, 2016 and 2020, u are correct...

And majority of people thought Covid in 2020 would drive the market down to its knees, and that Rolex/AP/Patek ADs would start begging customers on the street to survive. Clearly that all happened and I was living in an alternate universe where 2020-2021 watch prices achieved its peak…..

But even if we go back to 2000/2008 and compare watch prices back then and now, don’t you think that watch prices are higher today than those years? You can always proof me wrong and show me which SS Daytona, Nautilus or RO today are lower than the retail prices in 2000 and 2008, assuming they are good condition, full set models.

[z train]

Careful saying prices can't go below a certain point. The markets have made "liars" out of a lot of people

If you're in the market for a Jumbo via the gray market, you're better off waiting until after the elections to purchase.
Prices will almost certainly be lower than they are now.

Just be patient, fellas

[huncho]

Originally Posted by z train

Careful saying prices can't go below a certain point. The markets have made "liars" out of a lot of people

If you're in the market for a Jumbo via the gray market, you're better off waiting until after the elections to purchase.
Prices will almost certainly be lower than they are now.

Just be patient, fellas

nothing like telling people to not make predictions then making one yourself and stating it like it's a fact

[fsprow]

After many years trading in various markets I have found trying to predict future prices to be a fools errand.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by HMHM

And majority of people thought Covid in 2020 would drive the market down to its knees, and that Rolex/AP/Patek ADs would start begging customers on the street to survive. Clearly that all happened and I was living in an alternate universe where 2020-2021 watch prices achieved its peak…..

But even if we go back to 2000/2008 and compare watch prices back then and now, don’t you think that watch prices are higher today than those years? You can always proof me wrong and show me which SS Daytona, Nautilus or RO today are lower than the retail prices in 2000 and 2008, assuming they are good condition, full set models.

The point I made was that these were all election years, yet meltdown happened contrary to the popular belief. You can also add 2012 to that list.

Values post ‘08 didn’t really recover until Covid. Remember, Patek cut prices on Nautilus circa ‘16. RO couldn’t be given away and traded poorly. Most of the stupidity occurred post Covid and that is the regime one needs for prices to stay here. Whether it will or not is a different story

[Mr.GL]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Given that this is mass produced watch, the supply side always expands.. the demand side doesn’t have to particularly as initial group of people who really want this watch already acquired one… so unless the marginal buyers emerge price will dip. So to pay any premium today is speculative. I would not pay the premium!

You're assuming the demand from wealthy consumers stagnate or drop. Most top luxury brands will continue to attract new followers , hence the demand side.

At the rate of these top brands continuing to increase their retail prices , all the sought-after references could be below retail prices? When will that happen....?

Just sharing my personal experience , I had the chance to purchase brand new 15202st at around 30k+ in 2020, and of course , I didn't do it . I wasted 4 years of enjoying and will have to pay even higher for it now.



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[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?

Thanks for the great comment, that is the way he is. I wouldn’t want to waste my time to argue with this type of people.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

Thanks for the great comment, that is the way he is. I wouldn’t want to waste my time to argue with this type of people.

There are plenty of people involved in discussion, very productive discussion… all u can contribute is personal insult.. your contribution is unnecessary here

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by vliberman

There are plenty of people involved in discussion, very productive discussion… all u can contribute is personal insult.. your contribution is unnecessary here

Gee, I must have missed the "very productive" aspect.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Gee, I must have missed the "very productive" aspect.

Indeed

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Mr.GL

You're assuming the demand from wealthy consumers stagnate or drop. Most top luxury brands will continue to attract new followers , hence the demand side.

At the rate of these top brands continuing to increase their retail prices , all the sought-after references could be below retail prices? When will that happen....?

Just sharing my personal experience , I had the chance to purchase brand new 15202st at around 30k+ in 2020, and of course , I didn't do it . I wasted 4 years of enjoying and will have to pay even higher for it now.



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Demand doesn't have to drop, the supply of available units should just overwhelm existing demand which gets more and more probably as supply of available units increase. So if u have 100 existing units, 2 new and demand for 3, price stay higher... imagine, 5 existing decide to sell, now price drops...

[bourgognebob]

This thread has gotten wild

[Willyjo]

26249ST Blue Dial 50 for -US$51k

Recent Listing in Singapore

Check out 'Audemars Piguet Royal Oak chrono 26240st 50 year anniversary', available at S$68,000 on #Carousell https://carousell.app.link/HckJA8FaIJb


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[vliberman]

Weren’t there trading mid/high 60s? Guess where 16202 going next!

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

26249ST Blue Dial 50 for -US$51k

Recent Listing in Singapore

Check out 'Audemars Piguet Royal Oak chrono 26240st 50 year anniversary', available at S$68,000 on #Carousell https://carousell.app.link/HckJA8FaIJb


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Well, I picked it up for SG$65k - US$48k.

I can’t believe it was priced so low…




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[bourgognebob]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

Well, I picked it up for SG$65k - US$48k.

I can’t believe it was priced so low…




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Congrats! It’s a stunning timepiece.

[Steele]

Shots fired in this thread I'm clearly here for the fireworks

The definition of Mass Produced is clearly not 1000 pieces a YEAR lol

[vliberman]

Whether item is mass produced does not relate to quantity of items produced but rather method by which the item is produced. Models in question are part of a broader production cycle which includes other RO models. In the context of watchmaking, non mass produced watches are these that are mostly assembled by one individual or at most a small group of individuals related to this specific watch. Limiting the output does not constitute a bespoke product, rather a limited product!

[moxjr]

A lot of Jumbos listed on Moda in the low 40s and still unsold... how much longer until they go below 40?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by moxjr

A lot of Jumbos listed on Moda in the low 40s and still unsold... how much longer until they go below 40?

are you referring to white dials? those are pretty irrelevant when discussing jumbos

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Whether item is mass produced does not relate to quantity of items produced but rather method by which the item is produced. Models in question are part of a broader production cycle which includes other RO models. In the context of watchmaking, non mass produced watches are these that are mostly assembled by one individual or at most a small group of individuals related to this specific watch. Limiting the output does not constitute a bespoke product, rather a limited product!

every post you made about APs being mass produced in this thread has been in the context of numbers/supply and not how they're produced and assembled. what difference would it make supply wise if they made 1000 entirely by hand or not if it's still an extremely small number and long process to manufacture them

[moxjr]

Originally Posted by huncho

are you referring to white dials? those are pretty irrelevant when discussing jumbos

not just white dials. i'd say the ones at low 40s unsold are both white dials and older blue dials.

newer blue dials dropping to mid-to-high 40s and unsold... feel like they are trending to the lower 40s now as well.

i'd like one but not sure when to buy, hence why i'm asking for advice here. no one wants to catch a falling knife!

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by huncho

every post you made about APs being mass produced in this thread has been in the context of numbers/supply and not how they're produced and assembled. what difference would it make supply wise if they made 1000 entirely by hand or not if it's still an extremely small number and long process to manufacture them

Numbers/ supply is an argument for why jumbos will go down in price, which clearly is the case! All the muppets suggesting to buy in mid 60s should be ashamed of themselves. Also, people full of themselves thinking they are special for getting jumbo fit into that category.

Now, mass produced vs not has a real effect on convexity of price function. Please give me some rope here: when price goes down, equalizing function is supply. If supply goes down, price decline can be arrested. Supply will be determined by the cost structure of production process. In case of mass produced jumbo, it is low!!! So AP has no need to reduce production as it retains most of the value add given its distribution structure. In case of non mass produced watch, profit margin is significantly lower. So as price goes down and fewer people buy the watch, production goes down and so is supply. Ipso facto price reaches equilibrium at much higher point vs mass produced items.

[Watchman001]

I am not seeing any 16202s under $73k ish anywhere…

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Gee, I must have missed the "very productive" aspect.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Please re-read the article, it says around 1,000. Sub 1,000 is around 1,000, isn’t it????? Now I was just at FPJ collectors event hosted by the brand and the 900 figure was used, total.

Now, u are missing the bigger point, as usual. The entire brand producing less watches than one SS line, not including gold or other special super limited variants… please stop nit picking and think broader!

Wow! Now you're going to challenge Michael's FPJ knowledge because you went to an FPJ event? I wouldn't be using attendance of that event as some sacred passage. I've been to enough of FPJ's collectors events, but keep in mind that there are some here that have had dinner with FPJ himself. How about some humility?

I'm going to get some popcorn....