Honest assessment or..?

[LJubel328]

Reversion to the mean? Certainly possible.

Velocity at which that reversion happens is a variable many fail to reference. Could be months, years, or decades, no one knows. Enjoy the timepiece or continually reassess market value to mark-up ones “investments.” I prefer to be in the camp of the former.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[abacona]

Originally Posted by David001

It was never in fashion until a few years ago

It'll hover where it is, or might go up a bit more, for a year or two more at least I think, then when the fashion fades it will drop and trade at a little under retail.

Let’s see how this ages


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jlamb]

I have trained myself to have a "collection half full" mindset nowadays.

If the prices continue to be insane, I will wait for my PP AD to (never) call. And enjoy my current collection, and maybe a few other brands. I have my eyes on a Lange.

If the prices do drop, great, more watches for me. I bought my watches with my disposable income anyway, I will only trade a watch for another watch.

And to scratch that itch, I just help friends shop for watches now.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

...paying over retail for a Sub or Nautilus would have been laughable and you'd usually move on to the next shop if you weren't offered at least 10% discount on either

That was never true for a steel Nautilus or Sub. You bought the white gold model, on a strap and with a grey dial, and that was never a sought-after piece. You can't extrapolate from the WG to the steel.

[David001]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

That was never true for a steel Nautilus or Sub. You bought the white gold model, on a strap and with a grey dial, and that was never a sought-after piece. You can't extrapolate from the WG to the steel.

You're forgetting your own lies, go back to post #77 and you say you bought your own Nautilus at a small discount straight out of an AD window.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=77

You can't have it both ways, you either did or you didn't, and if you did then you seem terribly upset about the prospect of it going back to the price you paid for it.

It might do, it might not, I've got no skin in the game, I'm not buying or selling a blue dial Nautilus, just pontificating.

The value of your watch has really got it's hooks into you.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

You're forgetting your own lies, go back to post #77 and you say you bought your own Nautilus at a small discount straight out of an AD window.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=77

You can't have it both ways, you either did or you didn't, and if you did then you seem terribly upset about the prospect of it going back to the price you paid for it.

It might do, it might not, I've got no skin in the game, I'm not buying or selling a blue dial Nautilus, just pontificating.

The value of your watch has really got it's hooks into you.

It wasn't anywhere near an "at least 10% discount". More like 3-4% from memory. I got zero discount on my steel Sub, and in fact I had to source it in the USA, as it was unobtanium in the UK.

You never had any skin in the steel Nautilus game, but that's not stopped you from pontificating endlessly.

The value of my 5712/1A is really none of your business. Suggesting that I bought it as an investment in 2011 is both ridiculous and impertinent. I can't pretend that I'm sad that it's unexpectedly rocketing in value, though!

[David001]

Like I said, (if true) you walked straight into an AD and bought a steel Nautilus at a discount - when they were available at a discount in ADs.
Glad we sorted that out and my point is that once this fashion is over then it's not unconceivable that they'll go back to their previous price positioning, it's only the last few years that they've been like this.

Your stories don't ring true, you walked into an AD and bought a Nautilus with a discount but you couldn't even source a Sub in the UK. They've never been unobtainable, even now.

You demanded a picture of my watches, which I obliged with, so maybe show us a copy of your receipt for the Nautilus from over a decade ago

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

Like I said, (if true) you walked straight into an AD and bought a steel Nautilus at a discount - when they were available at a discount in ADs.
Glad we sorted that out and my point is that once this fashion is over then it's not unconceivable that they'll go back to their previous price positioning, it's only the last few years that they've been like this.

Your stories don't ring true, you walked into an AD and bought a Nautilus with a discount but you couldn't even source a Sub in the UK. They've never been unobtainable, even now.

You demanded a picture of my watches, which I obliged with, so maybe show us a copy of your receipt for the Nautilus from over a decade ago

Can you possibly give it a rest? You've done nothing but clog up this thread (which is about the value of a 5712/1A, and not the 5712G) with your repeated opinion ad nauseam that it's going to plummet. Nobody else seems to agree with that opinion. Your earlier posts in this thread were also misleading because you failed to mention that your watch was not the steel version.

I can't be bothered to retrieve and photograph my receipt, and I don't much care whether you believe me or not. I bought my 16610 in 2001 in Atlanta USA, having failed to find one in UK dealers.

[David001]

Lol busted, I can sniff out a billy bullshitter from miles away.

You had the audacity to demand I post a picture to prove I had the watches that I was talking about, so I did, but now you don't want to play.
I bet you don't even have a 5712 of any variety.

Laters Billy.

[rolexpatek363]

<sigh>

[LJubel328]

I’m subscribed to this thread solely for David001s and rolexpatek363s back and forth.

It’s quite entertaining. Keep it up


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kitsgq]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

I’m subscribed to this thread solely for David001s and rolexpatek363s back and forth.

It’s quite entertaining. Keep it up


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

[rolexpatek363]

I'm assuming that after his latest outburst, that'll be the end of the unfashionable Nautilus man, but let's see.

[David001]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I'm assuming that after his latest outburst, that'll be the end of the unfashionable Nautilus man, but let's see.

I'm dreadfully sorry, I forgot about you for a while.

If indeed that is your watch then the reason you raise doubts is because you seem too hung up on the money aspect and easily triggered. Maybe the watch has now spiralled out of your comfort zone in terms of value and stopped being a watch and is now just $$$. I can see how that might happen.

They're just watches though, let's not get too hung up on them. It's been fun sparring, but I wish you no ill will, let us try to return to a more civil discussion

I confess I would like a value drop, then we can get back to being watch enthusiasts and collectors, not investors. My watches, my wife's watches and my kids watches were all bought to mark special occasions, but if anyone asks about the watches these days they don't want to hear about the special occasion, it's only ever about what they could be sold for.

I remember the classic vehicle value crash, people were holding onto vehicles that suddenly lost a lot of their worth in the space of a few months. We all saw the dot.com crash, the sub-prime loan crash, etc.
Denial of the majority doesn't stop these things from happening and to get back onto the subject, I think watch dealers are starting to get twitchy about it, hence the spread on offers to buy versus what they're advertising them for.

[Pimpsy]

It's hard for me to say that I welcome a value drop but at the same time, I basically share your feelings. When I joined this forum in 2009, everyone only ever expected to lose money when buying retail and grey dealers were a way to pay LESS not more. Everyone here really discussed the hobby side rather than the value side, and I learned so much about watches and horology and met some great people. It added to my interest instead of taking away from it.

I still love watches, and the forum, but I have come to really not even enjoy seeing my AD anymore. It doesn't feel good to beg for the privilege of buying a watch and it was hard enough to justify my watch habit at retail prices, much less many times over retail. If nothing else, I used to feel like (and be treated like) a valued client, and now it feels like clients are seen as opportunistic investors who are looking for a freebie. Not fun.

And here...the crowd is different, and the people are generally much more snarky and unfriendly.

I hate to whine about it, but I do feel like the current climate has sucked much of the fun out of what used to be my favorite hobby. This is why I was so put off by the issue described in my original post. I guess it was a painful reminder that watch collecting has just become all about the money. I'm not rich; I worked hard to buy the pieces I have and it sucks to realize I'm now basically priced out of anything desirable or I have to grovel to an AD.

Anyway...maybe it's the bourbon talking. ;) Thanks for the comments.

[rolexpatek363]

As I said upthread, about two years ago my grail FPJ Chronometre Optimum was going for around £55k. I hesitated, and so in the interim, it's quadrupled in price and sadly I now accept I'll never get one.

Over the same period, my 5712 has moved from around £55k to £150k. The average UK salary is about £22k after tax, so this watch now represents almost seven years' income to the average UK wage-earner. This is about 15% of an average lifetime's earnings in a relatively rich country.

I don't know how comfortable I am wearing a trinket of this value in a society which is deeply divided in terms of wealth. I never gave this much thought when I acquired it about ten years ago, but on the one hand, the ballooning value has made me question my own values, and on the other, I don't want to present myself as a target for thieves.

So, I'm inclined to sell, and the timing is going to be fairly important. A lot depends on what happens in Ukraine, and whether PP decide to discontinue the Nautilus altogether, or replace it with a newer version. I'm sitting and waiting for now.

[David001]

I think this is a common theme with a lot of people, the watch stops becoming a watch and the hobby stops being what it used to be.
Things have changed massively.

I was in a meeting recently and the guy opposite me was wearing a 5726a, so once the business talk was over I complimented him on it. He asked me what I was wearing so I pulled my sleeve up and showed a 5196J, he actually asked me what brand it was and seemed surprised when I said it was a Patek.

Afterwards though I was quite pleased, I can wear Patek's most iconic watch and fly under the radar with this new crowd because it's not a Nautilus

Ironically you can probably get mugged in London for a SS Sub, but not even get noticed with a Calatrava on.

[David001]

Posted a double post by accident and can't delete.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by David001

I think this is a common theme with a lot of people, the watch stops becoming a watch and the hobby stops being what it used to be.
Things have changed massively.

I was in a meeting recently and the guy opposite me was wearing a 5726a, so once the business talk was over I complimented him on it. He asked me what I was wearing so I pulled my sleeve up and showed a 5196J, he actually asked me what brand it was and seemed surprised when I said it was a Patek.

Afterwards though I was quite pleased, I can wear Patek's most iconic watch and fly under the radar with this new crowd because it's not a Nautilus

Ironically you can probably get mugged in London for a SS Sub, but not even get noticed with a Calatrava on.

Agree with you. A lot of newcomers that know very little about the brands they’re buying. A lot of my friends who have the higher in demand models (nautilus, aquanaut, Daytona, etc) have no idea about the breadth or depth of the brands (primarily PP and Rolex).

I am new myself, started in 2017, but am very fond of the dress models and have purchases a number of them. When I wear them out to dinners, like last evening, my friends asked what I was wearing—I responded the watch was a Patek—they were surprised because they had never seen that model largely because they follow the hyped IG models.

Im in LA at the moment (and city that has had a string of timepiece robberies as of late). and have no worry I’ll be targeted because it flies under the radar. I can wear in peace :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jon_jon]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

It's hard for me to say that I welcome a value drop but at the same time, I basically share your feelings. When I joined this forum in 2009, everyone only ever expected to lose money when buying retail and grey dealers were a way to pay LESS not more. Everyone here really discussed the hobby side rather than the value side, and I learned so much about watches and horology and met some great people. It added to my interest instead of taking away from it.

I still love watches, and the forum, but I have come to really not even enjoy seeing my AD anymore. It doesn't feel good to beg for the privilege of buying a watch and it was hard enough to justify my watch habit at retail prices, much less many times over retail. If nothing else, I used to feel like (and be treated like) a valued client, and now it feels like clients are seen as opportunistic investors who are looking for a freebie. Not fun.

And here...the crowd is different, and the people are generally much more snarky and unfriendly.

I hate to whine about it, but I do feel like the current climate has sucked much of the fun out of what used to be my favorite hobby. This is why I was so put off by the issue described in my original post. I guess it was a painful reminder that watch collecting has just become all about the money. I'm not rich; I worked hard to buy the pieces I have and it sucks to realize I'm now basically priced out of anything desirable or I have to grovel to an AD.

Anyway...maybe it's the bourbon talking. ;) Thanks for the comments.

I have also been a forum member here since 2009. I agree with lot of your sentiments in saying that the forum discussion and member comments have changed a lot. I consider the crazy watch market over the past 4+ years to contribute to that. There appears to be a lot of "newer" forum members here who have joined since the crazy market started.

As you may know, there is another watch forum that caters to the watch purists and has minimal if not any discussion on watch prices and valuations. It is quite refreshing to go over to that forum and read about watches and people's enjoyment of their watches.

I think eventually the "market" will settle down and all the speculators, investors and flippers will lose interest and move on. That may take a few more years of watch market craziness. And hopefully ADs will also be more open to valuing "true" watch enthusiasts and understand that not everyone is out to make a quick buck on a watch flip.

[rolexpatek363]

I'll be sad to lose the second-favourite watch in my collection, I'll be sorry to see the 5712 go.

I may only have joined the forum relatively recently, but I think that longevity of forum membership means nothing, and most watch collectors never join forums at all.

[David001]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I have also been a forum member here since 2009. I agree with lot of your sentiments in saying that the forum discussion and member comments have changed a lot. I consider the crazy watch market over the past 4+ years to contribute to that. There appears to be a lot of "newer" forum members here who have joined since the crazy market started.

You're right, I posted this before but I only joined this forum to see what was going on. I'm old school, so I've always attended watch events and knew some ADs for many years, but I wondered what was going on from a wider scale because things seemed to be very different post 2018. So I started reading the internet for news on the situation and looked for watch forums to understand why things had become so hyped.

I tend to read more than I type, so I read the interesting watch info, but only comment on things that get me emotional.

So it's a topic I talk about and want to explore I guess. Mainly to try and get a feel for when it will end so we can go back to normality.