Honest assessment or..?

[Pimpsy]

Received this statement from a very well-known grey dealer regarding the value of my 5712.

"The Market on the 5712 went really high at the beginning of the year but now has started to cool off with the war and the stock market cooling off

If we had one we would try to sell around $135k and would offer $125k"

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Very curious to hear any thoughts. Admittedly, I'm disappointed in what I see as a lack of honestly from this person.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

Received this statement from a very well-known grey dealer regarding the value of my 5712.

"The Market on the 5712 went really high at the beginning of the year but now has started to cool off with the war and the stock market cooling off

If we had one we would try to sell around $135k and would offer $125k"

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Very curious to hear any thoughts. Admittedly, I'm disappointed in what I see as a lack of honestly from this person.

Ask him to sell you one with the same condition at $135

[2nastie]

I'm sure it comes down to age and condition of the piece.

I think there are some asking for $150k so it's not too far off from perhaps a final value of $135k-$140k after some haggle.

Market does seem to fluctuate quite a bit right now. Whatever you see people asking, I'm sure there is at least 10% room to haggle.

No way a grey would not leave themselves enough margin. They may pay $125k and then ask $150k, but if the right number comes along I'm sure they'll let it go if they make at least 20%. It's all the same pricing metrics; risk and reward for that kind of dollar volume as any other luxury good market out there.

Unless you are a grey or have the connections to sell the watch quick you won't typically get the value/demand. That's why they are in the business and we are not.

[Nat123]

I was is a gray dealer recently and while browsing displayed inventory I overheard the owner talking to one of his sales associates: "I can only buy it cheap!"

They are in it to make as much as they can. Not good or bad, just reality of a business. With that in mind, I would check a few different dealers and then draw my conclusions.

[V25V]

No way. Seeing what the known dealers are listing them for, my guess is they are buying at way above that number.

[Mbbgysam]

My advice is to shop around and, if you're willing, consider consigning it rather than outright selling. The risk is minimal with known sellers and you can maximize your potential payout.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

Received this statement from a very well-known grey dealer regarding the value of my 5712.

"The Market on the 5712 went really high at the beginning of the year but now has started to cool off with the war and the stock market cooling off

If we had one we would try to sell around $135k and would offer $125k"

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Very curious to hear any thoughts. Admittedly, I'm disappointed in what I see as a lack of honestly from this person.

They have obviously been lying when claiming they'd try to sell at 7-8% margin.

That said, based on following a few greys the market may have become a little soft lately. The latest meteoric rise in Nautilus prices after the December 2021 Phillips auction may not be sustainable after all. I don't think the stock market correction has mattered much in that regard. It is just that a lot more people are willing to pay 100k for a preowned 5712 than 200k.

[HMHM]

I 10000% don't believe he will sell it at 135k! More like 150-160 for a 5712

[agsstructures]

It’s a hot piece when you want to buy from a dealer and “has cooled off the past few weeks” when you want to sell to a dealer

[offrdmania]

Is it the watch only or is it a complete set?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Send your girlfriend to ask for the price of a 5712 to make a gift to her boyfriend. :)

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

Received this statement from a very well-known grey dealer regarding the value of my 5712.

"The Market on the 5712 went really high at the beginning of the year but now has started to cool off with the war and the stock market cooling off

If we had one we would try to sell around $135k and would offer $125k"

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Very curious to hear any thoughts. Admittedly, I'm disappointed in what I see as a lack of honestly from this person.

He's attempting to rip you off.

Chrono 24 are valuing mine at $212k.

[Pimpsy]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Is it the watch only or is it a complete set?

Original owner, complete set in worn but very good shape.

[interestedwatcher]

I've heard rumours that the microfinancers specialising in watches and jewelry are tightening the reins significantly. If true I would expect we'll see negative knock on effects in buying, selling and trading.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

He's attempting to rip you off.

Chrono 24 are valuing mine at $212k.

Hence why you shouldn’t trust C24 pricing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by interestedwatcher

I've heard rumours that the microfinancers specialising in watches and jewelry are tightening the reins significantly. If true I would expect we'll see negative knock on effects in buying, selling and trading.

Do you mean like Affirm and Afterpay?

At OP, I think most of those dealers work off 20-30% margin, so maybe the buy price isn't too off but the quoted what they plan to sell it for is.

Maybe low, but when in doubt, get 2 other quotes or sell it yourself.

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Do you mean like Affirm and Afterpay?

At OP, I think most of those dealers work off 20-30% margin, so maybe the buy price isn't too off but the quoted what they plan to sell it for is.

Maybe low, but when in doubt, get 2 other quotes or sell it yourself.

No - the people who finance the greys with money at 2% or less.

[Pimpsy]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Do you mean like Affirm and Afterpay?

At OP, I think most of those dealers work off 20-30% margin, so maybe the buy price isn't too off but the quoted what they plan to sell it for is.

Maybe low, but when in doubt, get 2 other quotes or sell it yourself.

The buy offer is what it is, it's not about being lowballed or being unhappy with the offer. It's the farcical statement that this person would "try to get $135K" which IMO is an outright lie. Takuya has one listed at $206K...does anyone here really think he would let it go for $135K or even close? Even eBay managed to recently get $161K for a 5712. I would probably buy an extra myself at $135K for that matter...the $26K delta here is not exactly chump change.

I'm sure that I'm just naive but I expected some integrity from a well known dealer, not 47th street shadiness.

[Ichiran]

I have recently sold my 5712 for 185 via an local online platform. Sold within 1 day from my listing after receiving 6 close offers.

[zhangster]

The recent ebay listing was not well-presented. The seller did not put in much of an effort and fetched below market for it. Anyhoo even with superficially inflated prices on chrono24, I don't think anyone in their right mind would let go of a worn but well maintained SS 5712 for anything less than $175K, at a bare minimum.

[Amateur]

And let's not forget it's a 35k watch :), including profits made by the company selling it

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I have recently sold my 5712 for 185 via an local online platform. Sold within 1 day from my listing after receiving 6 close offers.

Not bad at all.

If I had a bunch of Nautilus like you I might have sold some after the latest price explosion which does not look sustainable. Dealer inventory where I live has been rising and I am sensing prices have started to correct ever so slightly. The biggest local dealer now has a total of 19 Nautilus on offer - pretty much any bracelet variant ever made and in any metal - when they typically had sth like 5 or less during the past few years.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by ts3

Not bad at all.

If I had a bunch of Nautilus like you I might have sold some after the latest price explosion which does not look sustainable. Dealer inventory where I live has been rising and I am sensing prices have started to correct ever so slightly. The biggest local dealer now has a total of 19 Nautilus on offer - pretty much any bracelet variant ever made and in any metal - when they typically had sth like 5 or less during the past few years.

Thanks! I have wanted to hold onto all my Nautilus but there are some big incomings and I would like to use the 5712 cash to soften the blow.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Hence why you shouldn’t trust C24 pricing

One sold in December @ $294,840

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...ppe/NY080121/4

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

Received this statement from a very well-known grey dealer regarding the value of my 5712.

"The Market on the 5712 went really high at the beginning of the year but now has started to cool off with the war and the stock market cooling off

If we had one we would try to sell around $135k and would offer $125k"

Is there anyone here that believes a large volume grey would sell a 5712 for $135K?? It seems ridiculous; I'd be tempted to buy another at $135K myself just to resell.

Very curious to hear any thoughts. Admittedly, I'm disappointed in what I see as a lack of honestly from this person.

Prices move very fast these days. No idea on current prices but equally no reason to disbelieve the grey's figures - if he had buyers queuing up at $150k he would obviously offer you more than $125k for an instant $10k or $15k in his pocket - currently since you are underwhelmed he has made nothing. It does very much depend on other similar stock he holds so always worth shopping around.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by interestedwatcher

No - the people who finance the greys with money at 2% or less.

Ah, I see. Hard to imagine the banks lending against inventory would change the line credit terms much though unless they are just way in breach of covenant on holding times? But credit is still flowing pretty freely, as long as interest is being serviced, don't see how this would change much in the near future unless they are sitting on a lot of Russian paper no one knows about. In my corner of the world, I see plenty of people that are probably in technical default of the line of credit due to covenants, but no one cares because payments still being made on time.

Originally Posted by Pimpsy

The buy offer is what it is, it's not about being lowballed or being unhappy with the offer. It's the farcical statement that this person would "try to get $135K" which IMO is an outright lie. Takuya has one listed at $206K...does anyone here really think he would let it go for $135K or even close? Even eBay managed to recently get $161K for a 5712. I would probably buy an extra myself at $135K for that matter...the $26K delta here is not exactly chump change.

I'm sure that I'm just naive but I expected some integrity from a well known dealer, not 47th street shadiness.

I understand, yeah, agree generally. I do think however that the smaller reputable grays don't have a large enough cash balance to be shelling out that type of cash though when there are now so many 100k+ pieces. I wouldn't be surprised to see the smaller reputable grays pull back on their willingness to take risk as spring and summer vacation spending sets in. IMHO. Would be genuinely curious what a large dealer quotes you on it though.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

One sold in December @ $294,840

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...ppe/NY080121/4

Prices achieved in high-profile auctions for some of the lesser pieces (in this case the 5712/1A) are not representative of the market. That USD 295k result was nearly double the market price for a brand new 5712/1A back in December 2021. Same is true for the USD 281k result for the 5711 blue in that auction. People had simply gotten carried away by the 6.5 million 5711 Tiffany blue sale just a few lots earlier (or worse, given that the winning bidder did not even complete that purchase which doesn't help the credibility of the process).

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by ts3

Prices achieved in high-profile auctions for some of the lesser pieces (in this case the 5712/1A) are not representative of the market. That USD 295k result was nearly double the market price for a brand new 5712/1A back in December 2021. Same is true for the USD 281k result for the 5711 blue in that auction. People had simply gotten carried away by the 6.5 million 5711 Tiffany blue sale just a few lots earlier (or worse, given that the winning bidder did not even complete that purchase which doesn't help the credibility of the process).

You seem very certain, how do you know?

[Tricolore66]

Paying $135k in a volatile market seems like a lot of exposure if you don't already have someone lined up, a dealer or retail buyer, to pay you $145-150k. I think the smart dealers are turning these over for smaller profits, as chasing 20-30% margins seems a risky game right now. I don't think we're going to see a significant crash with any of these hot pieces, but a 20% pullback in actual retail sales prices is probably more likely than a 20% gain at this point, IMO.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

You seem very certain, how do you know?

Following a couple of grey dealers here and in the US and having followed a number of high-profile auctions. You can also check the historic prices on Chrono24 if you wish. In mid December 2021 they put the value of a brand new 5712/1A just north of USD 150k, today just north of USD 230k. If anything those numbers are inflated. They are certainly a lot higher compared to what any dealer would give you in cash and again that is for a brand new piece.