Can pre-owned Rolex prices shoot up with ADs locked down

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by syahriltaher

Economically speaking, the situation is not that bad.....Nasdaq is positive ytd and 15% yoy....Growth Stock ETF is only -3.5% ytd and 9% yoy....

So the buying power is still there....


Regards

22 million unemployed in the US in just 4 weeks, economy effectively shut down right now, new data show manufacturing production cratered in March by the most since 1946, and new home construction saw the biggest decline in nearly 40 years.

Yet you say “the situation is not that bad”

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by syahriltaher

Economically speaking, the situation is not that bad.....Nasdaq is positive ytd and 15% yoy....Growth Stock ETF is only -3.5% ytd and 9% yoy....

So the buying power is still there....


Regards

Lol, unfortunately most Americans at least can speak for others are not invested in that economy and then a larger percentage has not much in the market. It’s not the WIS community that supports the larger watch industry, it’s the non WIS that supports most of the watch market. Even professionals and folks that would have the income to buy have been and will continue to be impacted. The longer it takes to get the testing, masks, etc in place the more damage to the economy there will be. This will not be a v shape recovery. When we come out of this, many of the places we frequented will not be there. There will be massive cuts after this to pay for the bail outs and this will impact many for years. Of course it’s our own fault, the misdirected funds to so called defense which is laughably miscalculated the real enemy and trillions went to arm for combat against people (stupid in the Nuclear age) and not directing it at the most existential threats. It was the middle class that built the US, and spent their hard earned money on nice things. There are only so many watches the top 5% can buy and will not be enough to support the entire watch industry. So short answer is, prices will stay stagnant or drop. AD’s are going to have to start selling to consumers again, which has happened if you read the incoming posts.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think this is becoming increasingly the view of people, as this virus was inflicted upon us out of the blue we we have almost been cheated out of are freedoms and regular lives, so it is more like a war than a recession in psychological terms and thus people are increasingly defiant and determined not to let this thing spiral out of hand and into a depression, so I do expect quite alot of buying and a general feeling of people doing their bit however they can, when it is safe to do so.

The watch market is also not a free market but an oligopoly dominated by some large greys who have a vested interest and the resources to keep things as similar to before as they can, so that will skew the watch market, prices won't fall as fast as supply/demand may suggest and they will rise much faster.

I know I’m itching to get out to a great restaurant with my wife

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by rolexguy212

What do folks think, can pre-owned prices shoot up with ADs temporarily closing stores, cutting down hours and overall shortage of new supply coming into AD stores?

No

[rolexguy212]

Lol, i guess things will get worse before they start to get better :-) or maybe just stay worse for a while

[Pam673]

Lol...v simple. Go and try find a buyer for your beloved SS Rolex and see how much they are willing to offer and if at all...

The buyers set the secondary market price on Rolex...not the sellers

[JonaG]

I’ve tended to avoid these Covid related threads as they usually go downhill quickly and leave a few members banned but here I go:

I think pre-owned pieces will drop in prices slowly and then towards the end of the year fall further more sharply as the ramifications of coronavirus bite. There’s some serious pain coming in the economy. People who have straight up lost their jobs, people who are still in work but in no mood to splurge on luxury goods, people who will change their spending habits out of choice.

Of course, things will pick up again but I don’t believe any of you who say things aren’t that bad as the markets are ok.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by JonaG

I’ve tended to avoid these Covid related threads as they usually go downhill quickly and leave a few members banned but here I go:

I think pre-owned pieces will drop in prices slowly and then towards the end of the year fall further more sharply as the ramifications of coronavirus bite. There’s some serious pain coming in the economy. People who have straight up lost their jobs, people who are still in work but in no mood to splurge on luxury goods, people who will change their spending habits out of choice.

Of course, things will pick up again but I don’t believe any of you who say things aren’t that bad as the markets are ok.

I agree with your post. Spending habits have already changed. Walmart and Amazon being big winners here. Luxury companies are having their worst year ever. Yes folks, that includes Rolex.

Nota bene, the markets are exceptionally irrational and plain stupid these last few days. They jumped mainly because Remdesivir shows some tentatively promising signs. Incredibly naive.

[Spartacus]

Absolutely they will skyrocket.

[Mlioon]

I’m in the process of trading my steel non ceramic Daytona for 116618LB, the offer I received yesterday from my AD is identical to other offers from October 2019

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by fiosity

I take a contrary view. I believe after Covid, the economy will bounce back

I agree with you, I just think this will take along to to recover from. They talk about V and U shaped recoveries ... I think it’ll take longer than that, but it will come back, always does.

To the OP, right now I think prices have already softened in the secondary market.

[Nav01L]

You have to think about the masses and masses of these watches that are in the system somewhere with all the grays that traded among themselves for so long, this immense supply is now progressively hitting the end consumer as people run into liquidity issues all around the world. If anything, prices are falling.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

You have to think about the masses and masses of these watches that are in the system somewhere with all the grays that traded among themselves for so long, this immense supply is now progressively hitting the end consumer as people run into liquidity issues all around the world. If anything, prices are falling.

Thank God. A voice of reason.

[Rocco21]

Majority of People who buy these watches have money and that won’t change.Im seeing prices in my area maintain and go up a bit.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by Rocco21

Majority of People who buy these watches have money and that won’t change.

Unless they were pretending.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

I agree with your post. Spending habits have already changed. Walmart and Amazon being big winners here. Luxury companies are having their worst year ever. Yes folks, that includes Rolex.

Nota bene, the markets are exceptionally irrational and plain stupid these last few days. They jumped mainly because Remdesivir shows some tentatively promising signs. Incredibly naive.

Markets are forward-looking. I for one don’t believe that I am smarter than the markets or that they are naive.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Onikage

Unless they were pretending.

Quite so...

Anyone who has to choose between the rent, or the car payment, and the Rolex monthly loan payment or credit card payment - the Rolex loses.

This was the trend during the last major economic kerfuffle. Rolex preowned supply went up and demand (buyers who had been using CC’s to purchase) went down.

It affected the marketplace.

What is different now is that new supply has been curtailed by lockdown.

There is also no guarantee Rolex will choose to produce the same output as BC (Before Coronavirus). Distribution channels may be disrupted.

Countervailing forces at work in a planet wobbling under a major pandemic.




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[WatchEater666]

No. They are dropping already lol

[smym18]

OP has flipped a CHNR, BLNR, and Hulk in the last 9 months. Wonder where this question is coming from...

[superpop]

Rolex is a mass produced fashion bauble that a very slim part of the population can afford. Of that group an even smaller number of people actually want to spend 10K plus on a piece of jewelry. What has been propping up and driving up the prices has been this microcosm of flippers that have seen Rolex as a way to make a few bucks. That strategy is over, if the flippers are holding inventory they are looking for an exit. They will be the first to suffer economically. Next will be the AD's and then finally Rolex. In my opinion Rolex has done irreparable damage to its very small and loyal customer base with the way it has handled the shortage situation over the past 5 years. This compounded with the overall economy and you have prices dropping through the floor.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

22 million unemployed in the US in just 4 weeks, economy effectively shut down right now, new data show manufacturing production cratered in March by the most since 1946, and new home construction saw the biggest decline in nearly 40 years.

Yet you say “the situation is not that bad”

The big, big difference is that this is not like previous recessions and economic downturns. This was artificially created, if that's the right term. The economy in a holding pattern, not a permanent decline.

It'll bounce back quickly, according to many economists.

[MariettaMike]

Watch Price's UP or DOWN? Expensive jewelry (watches) are only worth what someone is willing to pay. In good times, people will pay MSRP from AD's or premium $$ from Grey's that have desirable watches.

Given current environment with AD's who only sell via phone or not at all and Greys' inventory not moving, watch prices will drop regardless of how soon things get back to near normal.

If you are on a waiting list for an in-demand Rolex, you should be getting a call soon but expect to pay MSRP.

If you are a gambler, hold-off on the MSRP offer from AD and wait, you may be surprised to get another call from AD in a month or two offering a discount for your grail watch but your financial situation may dictate your decision.

My 2¢, AD's and Grey's will be willing to negotiate on their watch inventory but will their potential customers be in a buy position? A conundrum. :-(


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[syahriltaher]

Nasdaq yoy +16%; ytd +1.5%

Large Cap Growth yoy +11%; ytd -3%

I believe these numbers mean something....

Rolex Price more or less related to those numbers...

Regards,

[Hollie_Rollie]

They can, but they won’t.

[syahriltaher]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Markets are forward-looking. I for one don’t believe that I am smarter than the markets or that they are naive.


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[Craigtw]

Prices are falling fast. Two days ago there was a 2019 Pepsi on Chrono24 for £9,667 from a US verified dealer with box and papers.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Markets are forward-looking. I for one don’t believe that I am smarter than the markets or that they are naive.


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Markets are currently hungry for good news. This explains the absurd reaction to remdesivir. They can't be forward looking atm because nobody can say for sure when a vaccine will be available. Could be 2022, markets can't price that in.

[rolexguy212]

Originally Posted by Onikage

Thank God. A voice of reason.

Makes sense, totally agree

[aw9nineteen]

Good friend is a manager at Porsche. He said they shut down production supplies will be low, which would make you think prices may rise, but the demand is going to be as low as it’s ever been. People are losing their jobs left and right, and even when it turns back on, it won’t do so fully. Fear has already set in..


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[Yess]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Good friend is a manager at Porsche. He said they shut down production supplies will be low, which would make you think prices may rise, but the demand is going to be as low as it’s ever been. People are losing their jobs left and right, and even when it turns back on, it won’t do so fully. Fear has already set in..

This is why I think there will be a slight downturn, not a crash, as it is a zero-sum outcome. You have no new supply coming in (manufacturing has ceased) - but you will have lower demand. Evens it out.