Prices not dropping?

[padi56]

Originally Posted by apinault

Hey gang and happy Mother’s Day to everyone out there!
Interesting, I think, people are saying prices are dropping on the grey market. David S W sure isn’t. I’ve been monitoring a few DJ41s and the price haven’t budged. Maybe just on chrono they’re dropping? Anyway DSW seems to be a pretty reputable seller maybe that’s why.
Have a great Sunday!

Welcome to the now nothing but Rolex prices forum.

[5thLegion]

I am in the same boat … I plan to hold out as long as I can.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by JRell

I just watch this video yesterday about prices. They are indeed dropping. You are looking at just list prices.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fTclY3M1vRk

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

[JRell]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

You are welcome! I very much enjoyed seeing actual data regarding this topic since there is so much speculation.

[rmwill]

Watch charts analysis. LOL. He has no data either.

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Personally I just want to be able to walk into an AD, ask what is available and walk out with a watch.

I think we all want that but I doubt it will drop to that point, at least with stainless GMTs, Daytonas and the like.

[Njkdog]

I think most people use the word gray incorrectly, I might also, but I don’t see any of those companies as gray dealers. In my mind at least, gray means they buy directly from the dealership, I could be wrong, I don’t think gray dealer is in the dictionary to look up lol.
But I think DSW from what I can tell just resells used watches? If it’s a big reseller, I think a lot of people call them gray. A few big resellers have started dropping prices, Bob’s Watches I saw an aluminum permit for under 20 K, same with the watch box. On Chrono24 you can see if they are a professional dealer

[BroncoOne]

It all depends on demand. The supply stays the same every year.

People with lots of liquid assets and little to no debt aren’t as affected by the current economic environment as everyone else is. As long as more of then want a new Rolex reference than there are new Rolex of that reference, prices may fluctuate a bit but will generally hold at a high range.

References that aren’t as desired may come down and become available so that’s good news.

[JTL31]

On a different note, thanks for the Mother’s Day greeting.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by padi56

Welcome to the now nothing but Rolex prices forum.

Agree.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by apinault

I know! Honestly hate to do it, wish I were more patient. Lol never been my strong suit.

Don't be too hard on yourself. I am having the same conversation with me, myself and I. Me, says David has outstanding stock and a rep to match. Myself says, be patient and wait for the call. I says if the prices go down, I am willing to pay a reasonable premium to get it now.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by padi56

Welcome to the now nothing but Rolex prices forum.

I know. But to be honest, it has been trending this way for a long time. Personally, I have more interest in accessibility discussions than investment discussions.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by padi56

Welcome to the now nothing but Rolex prices forum.

So true. It seems like values, rising prices and prices dropping are all people care about these days. Weird!!

[GaoKS]

Originally Posted by blargle

my portfolio is down about 100 rolexes.... so im not celebrating believe me

Damn baller

[sneakertinker]

Demand is lowering simply because of most peoples current economic positions…

Does it rebound or does it continue to lower? Who knows…I’ll say the hype is gone once people can walk into an AD and buy a SS Sports Model out of the case at a discount equal to whatever the taxes are…Until then it’s really all speculation isn’t it?

[GB-man]

One of our esteemed members listed a year old nos blro for 35k lol seems the market is red hot where he lives (on the moon).

[blueface101]

Looks like some or the trusted sellers have started dropping prices on their sites. Ocwatchguy has a panda on his site for $45kish while davidsws panda is almost $53k. Chrono24 has tgem cheaper then both although i would never buy a watch off there.

[HL65]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...light=116500ln

[orthopa]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

It all depends on demand. The supply stays the same every year.

People with lots of liquid assets and little to no debt aren’t as affected by the current economic environment as everyone else is. As long as more of then want a new Rolex reference than there are new Rolex of that reference, prices may fluctuate a bit but will generally hold at a high range.

References that aren’t as desired may come down and become available so that’s good news.

And demand will be curtailed due to rising interest rates, just as it was on the other side going up. It will having nothing to do with who actually wants the watches. Did anyone want the watches or to flip them? Do you really think demand just dropped out of nowhere in the last couple of weeks and its coincidence interest rates have shot right up? Your seeing monetary policy at work. The delta in interest rates changes are quickest at the top and the bottom. Interest rates are like gravity on prices. Throw in high commodity prices and demand drops quickly.

The price for mortgage, car loan, frankly any loan has gotten very expensive very quickly relative to months ago. Dropping stock market decreases the wealth effect.

For any marginal buyer of anything anywhere has become out of reach. Especially an all steel watch that was flipped for 100% profit. The demand will drop will quick once the profit is gone and there is no greater fool willing to pay more then "they" did.

Notice the amount of "hard to get" references coming out of the woodwork in the for sale section....aaaannnddd the dropping price posts underneath.

[fistwatches]

Interest rates are going up sharply, the money supply is contracting. Prices for all assets are going to contract. Some faster then others but luxury items are likely the first to drop.

House prices, stocks, bond prices, used car prices, luxury items all will drop in price. Just give it time. The greys maybe trying to seek out a couple grand more but the price drop with come. The money supply is contracting and quickly.

[Goin2drt]

No they are not dropping, plain and simple.
https://davidsw.com/shop/watch/rolex...hite-dial-138/

[7enderbender]

I don’t see why things would be dropping at this point. Demand apparently is still high and there is still stupid money floating around. With inflation, labor shortages and supply issues and attempts at “correction” it may only get worse.
It’ll only get interesting once the housing market in Western countries goes to hell. At that point a lot of the stupid money will vanish.

[HMHM]

I don't know... Personally these secondary dealers are quite hypocritical to me. On one hand they are trying to shore up confidence in the market by saying 'Oh its not crashing, its merely a correction due to the insane rise in prices' over the last few months, and that once things stabilise it will go up again. On the other hand, they are not too keen to acquire new stocks or giving ridiculously lowball offers so that customers themselves will not want to sell.

If they are so confident that this is merely a dip/correction, why not put their money where their mouth is and buy now? I thought buying the dip is a smart move? Once it goes up again that will make them look really smart!

So why the hesitancy is buying new stocks for themselves to resell?

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I don't know... Personally these secondary dealers are quite hypocritical to me. On one hand they are trying to shore up confidence in the market by saying 'Oh its not crashing, its merely a correction due to the insane rise in prices' over the last few months, and that once things stabilise it will go up again. On the other hand, they are not too keen to acquire new stocks or giving ridiculously lowball offers so that customers themselves will not want to sell.

If they are so confident that this is merely a dip/correction, why not put their money where their mouth is and buy now? I thought buying the dip is a smart move? Once it goes up again that will make them look really smart!

So why the hesitancy is buying new stocks for themselves to resell?

Pretty sure the established successful ones don’t mix emotions into their business plan.

The ones that do aren’t going to survive business long and may want to try YouTubing instead.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by HL65

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...light=116500ln

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I don't know... Personally these secondary dealers are quite hypocritical to me. On one hand they are trying to shore up confidence in the market by saying 'Oh its not crashing, its merely a correction due to the insane rise in prices' over the last few months, and that once things stabilise it will go up again. On the other hand, they are not too keen to acquire new stocks or giving ridiculously lowball offers so that customers themselves will not want to sell.

If they are so confident that this is merely a dip/correction, why not put their money where their mouth is and buy now? I thought buying the dip is a smart move? Once it goes up again that will make them look really smart!

So why the hesitancy is buying new stocks for themselves to resell?

They are not buying because they can see prices are falling, and likely to continue falling. They are not going to say that of course because their sales rely on the idea that prices are going up and up. Who you would pay £40k for an £8k watch if they though the would lose £32k on the deal and be left with a watch worth £8k? The whole bubble is based on that '£40k' watch will be worth £50k in a few months, hurry hurry buy buy now before it's too late. But for the flippers, grey dealers, wannebe dealers and ADs, all good things come to an end.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

No they are not dropping, plain and simple.
https://davidsw.com/shop/watch/rolex...hite-dial-138/

Nice try with the cherry picking, now venture further and see what's really going on.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Pretty sure the established successful ones don’t mix emotions into their business plan.

The ones that do aren’t going to survive business long and may want to try YouTubing instead.

He makes a good point with no mention of emotion. If buying the dip is so smart, why aren't they? Or maybe they just want us to so they can keep selling and keep propping up the falling market. It is obvious to anyone looking what is going on.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

I think most people use the word gray incorrectly, I might also, but I don’t see any of those companies as gray dealers. In my mind at least, gray means they buy directly from the dealership, I could be wrong, I don’t think gray dealer is in the dictionary to look up lol.
But I think DSW from what I can tell just resells used watches? If it’s a big reseller, I think a lot of people call them gray. A few big resellers have started dropping prices, Bob’s Watches I saw an aluminum permit for under 20 K, same with the watch box. On Chrono24 you can see if they are a professional dealer

You are correct, there is no "gray" market for Rolex watches as they are all originally sold by ADs. These posters, using the term gray, are simply referring to the pre-owned watch market. Gray market used to mean, new products which were in oversupply or overstock, so the manufacturer or distributor would sell in bulk to a parallel non authorized market typically without papers or warranties. Should a Rolex AD sell directly to a used watch dealer that is still within the authorized sales network and therefore not a gray market.

[SlideRacker]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Pretty sure the established successful ones don’t mix emotions into their business plan.

The ones that do aren’t going to survive business long and may want to try YouTubing instead.

That’s a tough gig. Unless you think you can get a million subscribers.