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Old 28 June 2019, 10:00 PM   #1
Jhamsburg
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Has the Nautilus bubble... dare I say it... slowed down?

Hi guys,

Ever since the price increase announced on June 1st, I noticed a downwards price trend for the ever-speculated Nautilus and Aquanaut lines. However, there still seems to be a demand and the waitlists have not gotten shorter.

As of recently, Patek price increases have been a guessing game for most. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it to be as follows:

August 2016 - 10% All Models

September 2017 - 5.5% All Models

March 2018 - 20% for just the 5711/1A and 5712/1A

June 2019 - 4% All Models

As for grey market prices, there has been a significant increase from December 2018 to May 2019 (For example, the 5712/1A jumped from a little under $50,000 to the $80,000 or so today).

Can anyone care to elaborate on the current grey market prices and if they have softened? Is this the bubble everyone's been waiting for or just a speedbump due to the economy that will recover over time?

Thanks.

** Again, I apologize if any information is incorrect or misleading. Please do correct any of the above you believe to be inaccurate!
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Old 29 June 2019, 01:33 AM   #2
sdh1980
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Keep going up and up in the UK..... Aquanaut seems to be going up weekly too
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Old 29 June 2019, 01:37 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jhamsburg View Post
Hi guys,

Ever since the price increase announced on June 1st, I noticed a downwards price trend for the ever-speculated Nautilus and Aquanaut lines. However, there still seems to be a demand and the waitlists have not gotten shorter.

As of recently, Patek price increases have been a guessing game for most. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it to be as follows:

August 2016 - 10% All Models

September 2017 - 5.5% All Models

March 2018 - 20% for just the 5711/1A and 5712/1A

June 2019 - 4% All Models

As for grey market prices, there has been a significant increase from December 2018 to May 2019 (For example, the 5712/1A jumped from a little under $50,000 to the $80,000 or so today).

Can anyone care to elaborate on the current grey market prices and if they have softened? Is this the bubble everyone's been waiting for or just a speedbump due to the economy that will recover over time?

Thanks.

** Again, I apologize if any information is incorrect or misleading. Please do correct any of the above you believe to be inaccurate!
Not sure what you have noticed, but I certainly haven't seen any softening of secondary market prices, there hasn't been a single downtick at all...
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Old 29 June 2019, 01:57 AM   #4
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Haven't noticed a downtick at all.
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:06 AM   #5
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:07 AM   #6
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:13 AM   #7
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
It's completely insane. I just want to enjoy some nice watches. Instead.... so many unobtainable at retail.
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:38 AM   #8
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
I was having this exact conversation today.....It's very very tempting
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:47 AM   #9
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DSW listed a 5711 at ~75k this week. Bubble not bursting yet
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Old 29 June 2019, 02:53 AM   #10
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Danny Govberg from Watchbox/Govberg predicts $100k by end of summer for 5711 blue
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Old 29 June 2019, 03:14 AM   #11
SL BRABUS
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As other mention the Aquanaut and Nautilus is at all time high after the Patek price increases this year.....

I check here in the TRF forum, none of our well known trusted dealer here in the USA have one for sale...

Oh, wait..... DavidSW have two 5711 for sale..... one at $70K and the other one at $75K...... They're at all time high......

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Old 29 June 2019, 03:33 AM   #12
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Too many people are getting priced out at this point, not sustainable. Even if you can afford it, $70K gets you a lot more watch at other brands
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Old 29 June 2019, 03:38 AM   #13
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
Truly, truly wrong.
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:11 AM   #14
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Too many people are getting priced out at this point, not sustainable. Even if you can afford it, $70K gets you a lot more watch at other brands
Unfortunately that still doesn't deter the hype
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:13 AM   #15
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Unfortunately that still doesn't deter the hype
Not saying demand falls because of less hype, but because of being priced out.
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:22 AM   #16
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
.........As right now if you were to sell the 5711 you could buy a brand new 718, or Macan, and or Cayenne....

OR

preowned 911 or Panamera....

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Old 29 June 2019, 04:26 AM   #17
Swearengen
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I sold my 986 to buy my 5712 about four years ago

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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:30 AM   #18
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I sold my 986 to buy my 5712 about four years ago

good move

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Old 29 June 2019, 04:47 AM   #19
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good move

Definitely!
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:48 AM   #20
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The bubble has not burst at all. In fact it's moved to other watches now.

The 5712 has surpassed the 5711. There was a time the 5711 seemed to trade higher.

Now even the 5167 has reached 2x msrp and climbing.

I guess when AD's are allocated one sports reference each per year it's not hard to see why secondary market prices are through the roof!
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Old 29 June 2019, 04:49 AM   #21
CamSLC
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The asking prices have certainly continued skyward.
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:02 AM   #22
ct.matt
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Who is buying these refs though at those prices? I would love to find a buyer for my 5164A at $70K :)
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:13 AM   #23
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Quote:
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
Nope, something is truly great imo. Just makes collecting more fun!Ha!
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:19 AM   #24
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Its what happens when everyone on this board buys more than 1 watch lol
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:19 AM   #25
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Nope, something is truly great imo. Just makes collecting more fun!Ha!

Says the man who's sitting on a fortune with a retail 5711r

Enjoy
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:20 AM   #26
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Its what happens when everyone on this board buys more than 1 watch lol


Stop buying your wife and daughter watches then
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:37 AM   #27
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Stop buying your wife and daughter watches then

But they won’t sell it to me
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:53 AM   #28
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Nope, something is truly great imo. Just makes collecting more fun!Ha!
Not for me it doesn't. If this trends continues at this rate I will sell. I cannot ignore the ridiculous nature of this market.
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Old 29 June 2019, 05:57 AM   #29
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Not for me it doesn't. If this trends continues at this rate I will sell. I cannot ignore the ridiculous nature of this market.

i do agree with you , at some point we say bye, and take a huge chunk of profit, i suppose its how brave we all are


we can only wear 1 watch at a time
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Old 29 June 2019, 06:51 AM   #30
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I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.
some of the Nautilus references are already at Ferrari level
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