has any other era resembled Rolex market for the last 4 years?

[2ltdjorn]

I bought my Rolex in 2015. for the most part I had the pick of the case with nearly all professional models available. since then we know the market has turned upside down with limited availability, at least the perception of.

for the long time enthusiasts do you remember an era in which these watches were as difficult to source? or is this a new phenomenon?

what do you think it would take to return to normal availability that we saw 2010 to 2015? other than financial reckoning?

[padi56]

Originally Posted by 2ltdjorn

I bought my Rolex in 2015. for the most part I had the pick of the case with nearly all professional models available. since then we know the market has turned upside down with limited availability, at least the perception of.

for the long time enthusiasts do you remember an era in which these watches were as difficult to source? or is this a new phenomenon?

what do you think it would take to return to normal availability that we saw 2010 to 2015? other than financial reckoning?

It's a plain and simple fact ever since Rolex watches become to many as little more than £££$$$ object things.As in the grey market there are hundreds of most all models for sale at inflated prices.And while there are those willing to pay these inflated prices the trend will continue.

[Aquinas]

If you had had more widespread internet back then, I think Panerai back in the early 2000s would have been similar.

[LFDAmelio]

Not in the 20+ years that I have followed watches. Judging by what I read in the vintage forums, not before that either. I remember walking into a jeweler in the Bahamas in 1991 and seeing Subs in the case for $1500. I didn't appreciate what it was at the time (other than a Rolex) and that was a different time in my life and finances.

[Sublovin]

It’s a trend. Much like Panerai, people will start to look at their watches and realize they mostly have a bunch of similar watches, with slight variation, that cost too much.
I remember when my AD, about 10 years ago, had a 14060 sitting in his case (brand new) for literally years. It had a 10% off sign in the case (with some other non-Rolex watches).
The hype continues to fuel this, and when people finally get bored of the same Instagram posts it will return to normal. They will also realize these things are mass produced and that the premium people are paying for watches that are abundant is a bit crazy.
I’m referring to the current production stuff obviously. Just my opinion.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by 2ltdjorn

what do you think it would take to return to normal availability that we saw 2010 to 2015? other than financial reckoning?

I think it will take:

1) a destruction of demand brought about by both wealth destruction and changing trends (ie Rolex professional models cease to be objects of great desire), AND

2) an increase in supply

1 is eminently possible, and eventually likely. I doubt 2 will happen, so my own guess is a softening of prices and improved availability at ADs can, and will happen at some point.

‘Good old days’ of ready availability of most, of not all models? I think that ship has sailed.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

It’s a trend. Much like Panerai, people will start to look at their watches and realize they mostly have a bunch of similar watches, with slight variation, that cost too much.

Yes, Rolex watches certainly cost too much.

What you may have missed out is the perception (that’s all that’s needed really, not even the reality) that the cost of the Rolex is largely covered by its resale value.

This is absent from almost any other watch brand.


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[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by teck21

I think it will take:

1) a destruction of demand brought about by both wealth destruction and changing trends (ie Rolex professional models cease to be objects of great desire), AND

2) an increase in supply

1 is eminently possible, and eventually likely. I doubt 2 will happen, so my own guess is a softening of prices and improved availability at ADs can, and will happen at some point.

‘Good old days’ of ready availability of most, of not all models? I think that ship has sailed.


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Number 2 is happening, literally on a daily basis.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Number 2 is happening, literally on a daily basis.

How did you arrive at this?


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[peterpl]

This has NEVER happened in the past. Cant be sustainable forever but no one knows how long it will go on for. Its already been 4 years+ since the madness started and its getting even worse since Covid hit. There was like a 2-3 month panic sell time but then it all went crazy again.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by teck21

Yes, Rolex watches certainly cost too much.

What you may have missed out is the perception (that’s all that’s needed really, not even the reality) that the cost of the Rolex is largely covered by its resale value.

This is absent from almost any other watch brand.


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Ha! Certainly didn’t miss it. Been in this game a long time. Did you read my comparison to Panerai? People had a perception that those were worth more than they were for years. You could literally go buy a new one, walk out of the AD and sell for 20% more minimum.
The difference is that most of those were truly limited.
Again, this is just opinion, but there will reach a point where everyone who is willing to pay $18,000 for a steel Pepsi on the grey market will already have one. Once that happens, the prices soften. This is an inevitable cycle because we are talking about current production pieces. The exclusivity is being diluted every single day as they continue to make more.


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[capote]

As long as the strategy works for Rolex it will continue. When people say to hell with AD games, waitlists and scalpers and sink their money into other brands Rolex will change their tune.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by teck21

How did you arrive at this?


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Because it is a current production model. These are still being produced so the inventory is literally increasing daily. Not difficult research.


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[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Aquinas

If you had had more widespread internet back then, I think Panerai back in the early 2000s would have been similar.

Best Panerai to have ...early 2000s

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Because it is a current production model. These are still being produced so the inventory is literally increasing daily. Not difficult research.


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On that basis, Rolex could be producing one 41mm sub a year and that would hold true!

Supply relative to demand is what I meant of course, and Rolex definitely knows from its ADs how much demand there is now for their professional watches.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Ha! Certainly didn’t miss it. Been in this game a long time. Did you read my comparison to Panerai? People had a perception that those were worth more than they were for years. You could literally go buy a new one, walk out of the AD and sell for 20% more minimum.
The difference is that most of those were truly limited.
Again, this is just opinion, but there will reach a point where everyone who is willing to pay $18,000 for a steel Pepsi on the grey market will already have one. Once that happens, the prices soften. This is an inevitable cycle because we are talking about current production pieces. The exclusivity is being diluted every single day as they continue to make more.


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You could well be right bout Panerai, I had no interest in watches at all during that time.

Perhaps Rolex could be headed the same way indeed, I do doubt it based on several other factors though.

One of them being Rolex has been well known for decades as a store of economic value even amongst people who don’t know anything about watches, I would be surprised if Panerai was ever conscious that way in the minds of the masses at any point.

All opinions as you say. We all have one.


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[TswaneNguni]

Any other era with so many dollar millionaires in the world ?
... and you wonder why Rolex from an AD is scarce ? Why secondary market sells high ?

[BroncoOne]

Rolex has essentially 100% brand recognition anywhere in the world.
Other watch brands don’t.

Economies in the world have been minting new millionaires for several years, a d the tech world makes even more possible. They want a Rolex.

[superpop]

We are talking about mass produced fashion baubles. At some point the hype machine will move onto something else and I predict at that point values will drop as all of the watches sitting in safes will move onto the open market. Rolex is not immune to this just like so many luxury brands before them.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by teck21

You could well be right bout Panerai, I had no interest in watches at all during that time.

Perhaps Rolex could be headed the same way indeed, I do doubt it based on several other factors though.

Wilsdorf is ruling from the grave .
Such a brilliant man .
Rolex cant even think about moving that direction,because the instructions laid down prevents it .

[Cambo]

Be careful what you wish for....I’d be OK with a stabilization but wouldn’t be too happy watching my watch values crater. I’m hoping this would/should be Rolex’s goal. I suspect they would shut down production if the risk of a massive bubble burst existed. All IMHO

[1William]

We are in uncharted ground for the continuation of this unprecedented situation with Rolex, PP and a few other brands. I am a big believer in bubbles and the argument could be made that Rolex and PP are in a bubble. We saw a slight correction when the Covid restrictions went into being in the spring of 2020 but it bounced back and up from there. I do not think we have seen the best , or worst, of it yet. With restrictions now back in place in the manufacturing countries supply will again be slowed and drive demand even higher. Corrections do occur and in this situation I think we may see one down the road but what you see now is the new normal and prices are going to go even higher for hard to get models, and People will pay. It will be interesting to see how 2021 goes.

[henrylee]

Reminder to self, don’t buy anymore Rolex watches until correction!

Also self, I really want a SS Daytona now!

[upsidedownbelt]

Originally Posted by padi56

It's a plain and simple fact ever since Rolex watches become to many as little more than £££$$$ object things.As in the grey market there are hundreds of most all models for sale at inflated prices.And while there are those willing to pay these inflated prices the trend will continue.

In addition to value as instruments and jewelry, high end watches are now collected and traded like any other collectible. They now have value from people that want to collect them as if they were baseball cards. It adds another dimension of demand and therefore ups the price.

[Cambo]

Originally Posted by henrylee

Reminder to self, don’t buy anymore Rolex watches until correction!

Also self, I really want a SS Daytona now!

Ha! Good one.

[enjoythemusic]

Imho this time period is the worst so-to-speak. In the 1980s there was some shortage as major cash flow from 'imported goods' made watches, Ferraris, etc more challenging to acquire. The dot com bubble wasn't too bad, yet yes that prized sports Daytona was out of access for some. In 2006-ish the RE / MBS bubble was challenging, yet not as crazy as today's everything bubble.

Hey, you can't magically add $30,000,000,000 in a handful of months globally and not expect to blow a bubble... or at least maintain one.

[Mystro]

30 years + into Rolex and we have never ever seen anything like the last 3 years. I believe we are in a uptick of a trend and it will go down but never like it was before.

[Overwound]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Number 2 is happening, literally on a daily basis.

A healthy diet and exercise certainly helps number 2 happen on a daily basis.

[brucethemanlee]

I don’t believe the secondary market will ever hit MSRP or below (ever again) for some models

Daytona SS, BLRO, LV, and SkyD (blue) will prob be perpetually above MSRP in this new world and by the time they start trending down they will be discontinued. The prices will then shoot up.

You might see the BLNR trend down a bit (as a GMT, i think it is in the shadow of its big BLRO brother). New Sub (black) will likely come back down from its current highs but still be above MSRP.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Hey, you can't magically add $30,000,000,000 in a handful of months globally and not expect to blow a bubble... or at least maintain one.

Yip,where is the guarantee for that amount .
The one's debt guarantees the other debt ?

I would love to hear from the guru's on the forum .