How much is too much?

[Soulo]

Good morning everyone,

I know that alot of people here make a living or use flipping watches as a part time job but I have a question for the consumers.

How much over msrp is too much?

I would like to hear where some of you draw the line and what some of you view as ridiculous when looking at prices from certain grey market sellers.

Lets discuss!

[Calatrava r]

[QUOTE=Soulo;12373121]Good morning everyone,

I know that alot of people here make a living or use flipping watches as a part time job but I have a question for the consumers.



I have not seen that here.

[harvey]

OP what’s your view?

[Tim Plains]

$1. I would never buy anything used for more than it sold new, excluding vintage. 60%, maybe 70% of the original MSRP, tops.

[Soulo]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

$1. I would never buy anything used for more than it sold new, excluding vintage. 60%, maybe 70% of the original MSRP, tops.

Gotcha, I know that there is a large population that feels the same as you.

I don't mind paying the mark up to a certain extent as I know that certain pieces are hard to come by and those that are able to obtain them get to reap the benefits.

I believe that there is "going rate" mark up and then there is "prideful price" mark up.

I had 1 person tell me that they charge an extra 1k-2k on top of the going grey market rate just because of their name. Those are the situations where I struggle to justify making the purchase.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

$1. I would never buy anything used for more than it sold new, excluding vintage. 60%, maybe 70% of the original MSRP, tops.

So you’d be happy to sell the watch in your avatar for 60% of what you paid?

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

$1. I would never buy anything used for more than it sold new, excluding vintage. 60%, maybe 70% of the original MSRP, tops.

So if you were in the market for a 116500 and I was going to sell you mine for a dollar over msrp you’d prefer to wait?

The ONLY time that could make the slightest bit of sense to me is if you’re so well positioned at your AD that you’re absolutely guaranteed to get the Daytona you want within a reasonable amount of time (let’s say 3-6months or less). If that’s your situation, than congratulations! That’s freakin awesome.

For the majority of us that’s just not the case. I’ve spent a pretty serious amount of money at my local AD and these days sometimes I get calls for a Tudor or a DJ41 lol.

I’ve also worked with other ADs in the past where SAs quit, the ADs lose their partnerships with Rolex, etc.

So for me personally I don’t want to wait. If the price is fair, I’m getting the watch. How much I’d pay over retail depends on the watch. I do follow the market cause I’d prefer to not buy something that will potentially be cheaper in the future, but as long as the loss isn’t ridiculous and as long as I love the watch I’m not waiting.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Soulo

I know that alot of people here make a living or use flipping watches as a part time job

Interesting, with 276,094 members on this forum you should get thousands of responses.

[mk2jag]

I personally used to only buy through the AD. But increasingly my AD has become more and more difficult to work with to the extent that im totally done with them. After being told by him a few weeks ago "you will never get the GMT" I made my way to a grey dealer I know and bought the exact watch I have been waiting years to buy. Im totally happy with my nw GMT and don't really care that I had to pay over MSRP to get it. You only live once and waiting for something you may never get just doesn't make sense to me.

[dlrolex]

Zero if I can get it at an AD

[pinkpiano]

For me, 30% over I would do if I really couldn’t find the watch I wanted at MSRP after a few years. Even that. You deal with no warranty, not knowing if the dealer “opened” the watch to check authenticity and messed up the seal, could be a fake, etc.

Luckily 30% over retail is what most watches I want are currently at so if I can’t get this watch in several years, I may go grey.

Candy Pink OP I want is currently $5800 MSRP and like 2.5 times the cost grey. If I can’t get that watch MSRP (read: I won’t be), then I probably wouldn’t go grey for that, I’ll probably just have to settle to never have this one.

[Soulo]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

So if you were in the market for a 116500 and I was going to sell you mine for a dollar over msrp you’d prefer to wait?

The ONLY time that could make the slightest bit of sense to me is if you’re so well positioned at your AD that you’re absolutely guaranteed to get the Daytona you want within a reasonable amount of time (let’s say 3-6months or less). If that’s your situation, than congratulations! That’s freakin awesome.

For the majority of us that’s just not the case. I’ve spent a pretty serious amount of money at my local AD and these days sometimes I get calls for a Tudor or a DJ41 lol.

I’ve also worked with other ADs in the past where SAs quit, the ADs lose their partnerships with Rolex, etc.

So for me personally I don’t want to wait. If the price is fair, I’m getting the watch. How much I’d pay over retail depends on the watch. I do follow the market cause I’d prefer to not buy something that will potentially be cheaper in the future, but as long as the loss isn’t ridiculous and as long as I love the watch I’m not waiting.

I 100% agree with your last paragraph.

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

So if you were in the market for a 116500 and I was going to sell you mine for a dollar over msrp you’d prefer to wait?

The ONLY time that could make the slightest bit of sense to me is if you’re so well positioned at your AD that you’re absolutely guaranteed to get the Daytona you want within a reasonable amount of time (let’s say 3-6months or less). If that’s your situation, than congratulations! That’s freakin awesome.

For the majority of us that’s just not the case. I’ve spent a pretty serious amount of money at my local AD and these days sometimes I get calls for a Tudor or a DJ41 lol.

I’ve also worked with other ADs in the past where SAs quit, the ADs lose their partnerships with Rolex, etc.

So for me personally I don’t want to wait. If the price is fair, I’m getting the watch. How much I’d pay over retail depends on the watch. I do follow the market cause I’d prefer to not buy something that will potentially be cheaper in the future, but as long as the loss isn’t ridiculous and as long as I love the watch I’m not waiting.

I have also dropped (imho) significant coin at my AD. The last time I expressed interest in a few items I was told either of them would take years. I explained to them that it has already been years on one particular piece. The SA then flat out told me Rolex are now for people that buy other stuff. My next call was to DSW and I paid 10 over list on a WG Sub and YG DD. Happy to have done so.

[Soulo]

Originally Posted by Easy E

I have also dropped (imho) significant coin at my AD. The last time I expressed interest in a few items I was told either of them would take years. I explained to them that it has already been years on one particular piece. The SA then flat out told me Rolex are now for people that buy other stuff. My next call was to DSW and I paid 10 over list on a WG Sub and YG DD. Happy to have done so.

Sorry to hear that, when your SA said "for people that buy other stuff", what did he mean by that?

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by Soulo

Sorry to hear that, when your SA said "for people that buy other stuff", what did he mean by that?

Jewelry, and apparently lots of it.

[Guybrush]

Such a subjective thing. Unless you’ve got a strong AD relationship (which isn’t the case for those of us who might buy an expensive watch once every few years, if that), then there’s simply no avoiding a premium in the current Rolex market, at least for widely desired models. That premium will take one of two forms: time (coupled with uncertainty) or money (coupled with certainty). Would you rather wait months or years with little guarantee of getting the watch you want, or would you rather pay $$$$ on top of msrp and have the watch tomorrow? Either way: “you gotta serve somebody.”

The answer will come down to specifics: for a watch like a Sub LN, I’m reasonably certain I could get one after a few months (as I did, in 6 weeks, back in 2020), so I’d never pay a penny over retail. For a Pepsi, the calculation would be different. There’s simply no way I’m ever getting one at retail, so I’d pay the premium in money. But I don’t think it’s ever going to be worth more 50% over retail to me. (Once you get into the 20k range, you can get a used Day-Date or a watch from a high-end brand; a SS Rolex just isn’t worth that kind of money to me.)

All to say, there’s no rule of thumb, at least not for me.

[geoffreyis]

What do you value these watches OP?

[Soulo]

Originally Posted by Guybrush

Such a subjective thing. Unless you’ve got a strong AD relationship (which isn’t the case for those of us who might buy an expensive watch once every few years, if that), then there’s simply no avoiding a premium in the current Rolex market, at least for widely desired models. That premium will take one of two forms: time (coupled with uncertainty) or money (coupled with certainty). Would you rather wait months or years with little guarantee of getting the watch you want, or would you rather pay $$$$ on top of msrp and have the watch tomorrow? Either way: “you gotta serve somebody.”

The answer will come down to specifics: for a watch like a Sub LN, I’m reasonably certain I could get one after a few months (as I did, in 6 weeks, back in 2020), so I’d never pay a penny over retail. For a Pepsi, the calculation would be different. There’s simply no way I’m ever getting one at retail, so I’d pay the premium in money. But I don’t think it’s ever going to be worth more 50% over retail to me. (Once you get into the 20k range, you can get a used Day-Date or a watch from a high-end brand; a SS Rolex just isn’t worth that kind of money to me.)

All to say, there’s no rule of thumb, at least not for me.

Interesting on the Sub part.

My local AD told me I would have a 2 year wait for a No Date Sub.

[Guybrush]

Originally Posted by Soulo

Interesting on the Sub part.

My local AD told me I would have a 2 year wait for a No Date Sub.

Mine was the Sub Date, not the Sub, fwiw. And I think this might vary from AD to AD—I’d call around to every shop you’d consider traveling to. (Since I’m not a frequent buyer, I don’t believe in building an SA “relationship”: I’ll buy from whoever will sell to me first—it’s just watch, and they’re just retail salespeople.) That said, if I really wanted a Sub and had to wait 2 years, I’d probably pay an extra couple grand to get it if I could. (Maybe no more than 3-4, though.) Honestly, I’d just find a used/vintage one, but that’s me. Subs are produced in enormous quantities and used ones are abundant. No reason to wait two years for a mass-produced piece like that. Unless you’re dead-set on being the first owner of a brand new watch?

[yoast]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

So for me personally I don’t want to wait. If the price is fair, I’m getting the watch. How much I’d pay over retail depends on the watch. I do follow the market cause I’d prefer to not buy something that will potentially be cheaper in the future, but as long as the loss isn’t ridiculous and as long as I love the watch I’m not waiting.

This sums it up for me.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Soulo

Good morning everyone,

I know that alot of people here make a living or use flipping watches as a part time job but I have a question for the consumers.

How much over msrp is too much?

I would like to hear where some of you draw the line and what some of you view as ridiculous when looking at prices from certain grey market sellers.

Lets discuss!

There is no doubt that there are flippers lurking here for the same reason we are here, to learn, but I don’t see any posting about their exploits. To the contrary most posts about flippers are to condemn them for chewing up AD inventory and driving up prices.

The question “How much over MSRP is too much?” is so vague as to be meaningless. So many variables define value for so many individuals, not the least of which is opportunity. I’ve never wanted a watch bad enough to pay over retail and I’ve only bought non-Rolex from greys for less than retail. I work for a living but I can assure you of this, if I step on a four leaf clover and a bag of money drops in my lap that behavior is going to change.

[binArt]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

So if you were in the market for a 116500 and I was going to sell you mine for a dollar over msrp you’d prefer to wait?

The ONLY time that could make the slightest bit of sense to me is if you’re so well positioned at your AD that you’re absolutely guaranteed to get the Daytona you want within a reasonable amount of time (let’s say 3-6months or less). If that’s your situation, than congratulations! That’s freakin awesome.

For the majority of us that’s just not the case. I’ve spent a pretty serious amount of money at my local AD and these days sometimes I get calls for a Tudor or a DJ41 lol.

I’ve also worked with other ADs in the past where SAs quit, the ADs lose their partnerships with Rolex, etc.

So for me personally I don’t want to wait. If the price is fair, I’m getting the watch. How much I’d pay over retail depends on the watch. I do follow the market cause I’d prefer to not buy something that will potentially be cheaper in the future, but as long as the loss isn’t ridiculous and as long as I love the watch I’m not waiting.

It's a matter of perspective. Is a watch so important that you would dramatically overpay for it? For me the answer is a hard no. A modern reference is worth no more to me than MSRP. A vintage reference is worth market value.

[Star Ferry]

That’s up to you, but I’d stay far far away from things like a 15202, Nautilus, etc. There’s been a wild global bubble and you could end up losing your shirt.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

So if you were in the market for a 116500 and I was going to sell you mine for a dollar over msrp you’d prefer to wait?

I became watch obsessed around 18 months and, like everyone else, immediately loved Pandas but don't like them at all now. Black dial 116500LNs are stunning as men's jewelry but it's useless to me as a functional wrist watch / chronograph being illegible and having screw down pushers.

I'm in Canada. I would have probably bought a new black dial 116500LN last year when they were $15,500, new, if given the chance. The 2022 price increase brought them up to $17,100. I don't care what popular opinion is, a Daytona isn't worth that much to me, so no, I wouldn't buy yours for $17,101. If you want to sell it for $15,501 CDN, let's talk. lol

[alphadweller]

I've yet to find a watch that makes me want to pay over retail. Almost all my watches were bought new at a discount in fact. I only paid retail for my SD43 and TT blue Sub41 because to me they were worth it.

[subtona]

Time has a value unique to each of us.

If the additional cost can save you time in waiting, permit enjoyment immediately, and free up head space for other matters then in my opinion this has a value. How much depends.

[kulak]

I was in the AD to drop off for service a few weeks ago. 4 potential buyers walked in during a 15 min time span to be turned away. My wife who is not knowledgeable asked why they have no watches. Within hearing distance of the 5 bored workers I just said the market is tough and that I wouldn’t even bother going to AD to source a watch. Just save your self the hassle and effort and buy from grey.

Didn’t seem to bother the staff one bit.

[Soulo]

Originally Posted by kulak

I was in the AD to drop off for service a few weeks ago. 4 potential buyers walked in during a 15 min time span to be turned away. My wife who is not knowledgeable asked why they have no watches. Within hearing distance of the 5 bored workers I just said the market is tough and that I wouldn’t even bother going to AD to source a watch. Just save your self the hassle and effort and buy from grey.

Didn’t seem to bother the staff one bit.

I agree with you, it just bothers me a little when I see certain sellers that list like an extra 1k-2k above the already marked up grey market rate.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Soulo

I agree with you, it just bothers me a little when I see certain sellers that list like an extra 1k-2k above the already marked up grey market rate.

That’s what makes it a free market, sellers are free to ask too much and you are free not to pay it.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by binArt

It's a matter of perspective. Is a watch so important that you would dramatically overpay for it? For me the answer is a hard no. A modern reference is worth no more to me than MSRP. A vintage reference is worth market value.

It is a matter of perspective for sure and everyone has their limits, but as I originally said, if you had no easy way or no way at all of getting a hard to get model like a 116500, and you have a chance to buy a secondary market example unworn and complete, for let's say $14,000. You don't think it's worth that? You still think you'd be overpaying, when you can literally turn around and profit $10-15k profit with almost zero effort. (those are conservative numbers based on today's market of course 9/11/22).

Again, we agree no one can say what it's worth to you, but I could line up 5 actual buyers for you in 20m that will pay thousands over MSRP. I just don't see how you make a blanketed statement that anything over msrp is overpaying.